<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing with OASIS Tables v3.0 20080202//EN" "journalpub-oasis3.dtd">
<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:oasis="http://docs.oasis-open.org/ns/oasis-exchange/table" xml:lang="en" dtd-version="3.0"><?xmltex \makeatother\@nolinetrue\makeatletter?>
  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">AMT</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Atmospheric Measurement Techniques</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">AMT</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Atmos. Meas. Tech.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1867-8548</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/amt-12-6695-2019</article-id><title-group><article-title>Detectability of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission plumes of cities and power plants with the Copernicus Anthropogenic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> Monitoring (CO2M) mission</article-title><alt-title>Detectability of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission plumes of cities and power plants with CO2M mission</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Detectability of {$\chem{CO_{{2}}}$} emission plumes of cities and power plants with CO2M mission}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{G. Kuhlmann et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Kuhlmann</surname><given-names>Gerrit</given-names></name>
          <email>gerrit.kuhlmann@empa.ch</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7021-4712</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2">
          <name><surname>Broquet</surname><given-names>Grégoire</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff3">
          <name><surname>Marshall</surname><given-names>Julia</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2648-128X</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff4 aff5">
          <name><surname>Clément</surname><given-names>Valentin</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff6">
          <name><surname>Löscher</surname><given-names>Armin</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1218-2580</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff6">
          <name><surname>Meijer</surname><given-names>Yasjka</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Brunner</surname><given-names>Dominik</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4007-6902</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ,<?xmltex \hack{\break}?> Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><institution>Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Jena, Germany</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><institution>Center for Climate Systems Modelling (C2SM), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><institution>MeteoSwiss, Kloten, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff6"><label>6</label><institution>European Space Agency (ESA), ESTEC, Noordwijk, the Netherlands</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Gerrit Kuhlmann (gerrit.kuhlmann@empa.ch)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>19</day><month>December</month><year>2019</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>12</volume>
      <issue>12</issue>
      <fpage>6695</fpage><lpage>6719</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>3</day><month>May</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>17</day><month>June</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>26</day><month>November</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>27</day><month>November</month><year>2019</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2019 Gerrit Kuhlmann et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2019</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019.html">This article is available from https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>
    <p id="d1e204">High-resolution atmospheric transport simulations were used to investigate the potential for detecting carbon dioxide (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) plumes of the city of Berlin and neighboring power stations with the Copernicus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Monitoring (CO2M) mission, which is a proposed constellation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> satellites with imaging capabilities.
The potential for detecting plumes was studied for satellite images of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> alone or in combination with images of nitrogen dioxide (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and carbon monoxide (CO) to investigate the added value of measurements of other gases coemitted with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> that have better signal-to-noise ratios.
The additional <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO images were either generated for instruments on the same CO2M satellites (2 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2 km resolution) or for the Sentinel-5 instrument (7.5 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 7.5 km) assumed to fly 2 h earlier than CO2M.
Realistic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>X</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fields were simulated at 1 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1 km horizontal resolution with the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling model extended with a module for the simulation of greenhouse gases (COSMO-GHG) for the year 2015, and they were used as input for an orbit simulator to generate synthetic observations of columns of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for constellations of up to six satellites.
A simple plume detection algorithm was applied to detect coherent structures in the images of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> or CO against instrument noise and variability in background levels.
Although six satellites with an assumed swath of 250 km were sufficient to overpass Berlin on a daily basis, only about 50 out of 365 plumes per year could be observed in conditions suitable for emission estimation due to frequent cloud cover.
With the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument only 6 and 16 of these 50 plumes could be detected assuming a high-noise (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm) and low-noise (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm) scenario, respectively,
because the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signals were often too weak.
A CO instrument with specifications similar to the Sentinel-5 mission performed worse than the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument, while the number of detectable plumes could be significantly increased to about 35 plumes with an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument.
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes were found to overlap to a large extent, although <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>X</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> had a limited lifetime (assumed to be 4 h) and although <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>X</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> were emitted with different <inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>X</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>:</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission ratios by different source types with different temporal and vertical emission profiles.
Using <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations from the Sentinel-5 platform instead resulted in a significant spatial mismatch between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes due to the 2 h time difference between Sentinel-5 and CO2M.
The plumes of the coal-fired power plant Jänschwalde were easier to detect with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument (about 40–45 plumes per year), but, again, an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument could detect significantly more plumes (about 70).
Auxiliary measurements of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> were thus found to greatly enhance the capability of detecting the location of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes, which will be invaluable for the quantification of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions from large point sources.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<?pagebreak page6696?><sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e635">The signatory countries of the Paris climate agreement have set ambitious goals to reduce <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions and limit global warming to below 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C above preindustrial levels <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx44" id="paren.1"/>.
The efficient implementation and management of long-term policies will require consistent, reliable and timely information on <inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx15 bib1.bibx35" id="paren.2"/>.
The majority of these emissions are concentrated on a small fraction of the globe, primarily on cities and power plants. Acknowledging their important role, cities have started to devise policies for cutting <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions often surpassing the reduction targets of the respective countries <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx13" id="paren.3"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.,</named-content></xref>.
However, many cities are currently lacking  detailed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission inventories and monitoring systems to evaluate their policies.</p>
      <p id="d1e703">The European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Commission (EC) therefore propose the Copernicus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Monitoring (CO2M) mission, a constellation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> satellites with imaging capability, to support the quantification of anthropogenic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fluxes and to assist greenhouse gas mitigation policies at the national, city and facility level <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx41" id="paren.4"/>.
The satellites are envisioned as an essential component of a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission monitoring and verification support system to be established under Europe's Earth observation program Copernicus <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx15 bib1.bibx35" id="paren.5"/>.
The system would allow for observing <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes of individual point sources such as large cities and power plants and for quantifying the respective emissions during single satellite overpasses <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx9 bib1.bibx34 bib1.bibx46" id="paren.6"/>.
A <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume is defined here as an enhancement of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations above the background in the satellite image caused by the emissions of a given source.
The emissions of the source can be estimated from the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> enhancement inside the plume, which requires that the plume location is identified in the satellite observations and assigned to the source.
An atmospheric transport model may be used for simulating the plume location and for estimating the emissions with an inversion framework <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34 bib1.bibx10" id="paren.7"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.,</named-content></xref>.
However, the simulated plume might be significantly displaced due to uncertainties in wind fields and emission heights, which would result in systematic errors in the estimated emissions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10 bib1.bibx11" id="paren.8"/>.
It is therefore desirable to detect the plume directly in the satellite observations, which would make it possible to correct transport-related errors in the simulations but also to estimate the emissions directly from the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> enhancements in the plume using plume fitting or mass balance approaches, which only require an estimate of the mean wind speed within the plume <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx20 bib1.bibx23 bib1.bibx45" id="paren.9"/>.
While some potential for detecting and estimating emissions from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fluxes has been demonstrated for strong <inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes of megacities and large point sources using the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx16" id="altparen.10"/>) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx31 bib1.bibx38" id="paren.11"/>, it remains a major challenge to accurately determine the location of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes, especially of weaker plumes with signal-to-noise ratios near or below the detection limit for single pixels.
The detection of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes is additionally challenged by the interference with signals from biospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fluxes and other anthropogenic sources in the vicinity of the target.
Therefore, measurements of auxiliary trace gases coemitted with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> but little affected by biospheric processes such as carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen dioxide (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) were proposed to help separate anthropogenic from biospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signals <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx37 bib1.bibx15" id="paren.12"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e915">This study presents results from the SMARTCARB project (use of satellite measurements of auxiliary reactive trace gases for fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission estimation, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx26" id="altparen.13"/>), which aimed to assess the potential synergies of measurements of CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for observing and quantifying <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions and to help define the required satellite specifications for the CO2M mission.
To address these questions, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were conducted, for which synthetic satellite observations were generated from high-resolution atmospheric transport simulations.
The model domain was centered on the city of Berlin and also covered several nearby power plants.
Similar simulations were already performed in previous OSSEs <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34 bib1.bibx10" id="paren.14"/>, but they did not have a comparable spatial resolution or temporal extent or did not cover the additional species <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as investigated here.</p>
      <p id="d1e966">Since the detection of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume is a first and important step of a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission monitoring system, the aim of this paper is to investigate whether and how often <inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes are expected to be detected in the satellite images during a year depending on the size of the CO2M satellite constellation and on instrument error scenarios.
The detectability is studied for satellite images of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> alone or in combination with images of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO to investigate the added value of additional measurements either on the same CO2M satellite (2 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2 km, overpass: 11:30 local time) or with the Sentinel-5 instrument (7.5 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 7.5 km, overpass: 09:30 local time).
In this paper, we analyze the signal-to-noise ratios of a city plume and of different point sources for the different instruments.
Furthermore, based on a newly developed simple plume detection algorithm, we identify statistically significant plume signals against instrument noise and background variability.
The results are used to provide recommendations for the dimensioning of the CO2M mission, which will be a key component of the Copernicus <inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission monitoring and verification support system.
In a companion paper <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx11" id="text.15"/> presented the overall model setup and emphasized the importance of properly accounting for the vertical placement of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions from large point sources in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>  simulations.
In a follow-up study, we will quantify the emissions from<?pagebreak page6697?> Berlin and a few power plants in the model domain from the synthetic satellite observations using both inverse and mass-balance approaches, building on the plume detection presented here.</p>
      <p id="d1e1076">In a satellite image, a plume may be defined as a collection of spatially connected pixels with elevated signals starting at a source.
Whether and how frequently the plume of a given source can be detected depends on several, partly interdependent factors:
<list list-type="bullet"><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1081">The number of satellites and the instrument's swath width, as they determine the number of overpasses over the plume and how much of the plume is visible in the satellite image.</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1085">The intensity of the emission source, which affects the amplitude of the enhancement above background.</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1089">The meteorological conditions, notably wind speed and turbulence, which determine the dilution and dispersion of the emissions.</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1093">The single sounding precision of the instrument, which determines if the enhancement within the plume can be detected.</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1097">The variability of the background, which is caused by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes in the vicinity of the source and which is additionally affected by meteorology.</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1101">The presence of clouds partially or fully obscuring the plume.</p></list-item></list>
Since most of these factors vary with season, the detectability also depends on the time of the year. Therefore, long simulations covering a full year were conducted.</p>
      <p id="d1e1105">Because the detection of weak anthropogenic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes is affected by interference with biospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signals, auxiliary trace gases coemitted with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> could be used for locating the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume in the satellite image.
However, this requires that the plumes of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and of the auxiliary trace gas are spatially congruent. This is usually the case when they are emitted from the same source, for example, a power plant.
The shape of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes might deviate from the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume for two reasons. First, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is emitted mainly as nitrogen monoxide (NO), which is converted to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over time, resulting in lower <inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations near the source. Second, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decays slowly with time, reducing <inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations downstream. To account for these two effects, we simulated nitrogen oxides (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>X</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) that slowly decay with time and calculated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>X</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations offline by applying a formula frequently used to represent <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>:</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>X</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ratios downstream of emission sources <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx18" id="paren.16"/>.
The situation is more complex for cities where the emissions originate from different sectors (industry, heating, transport, etc.) that emit with different temporal profiles and at different altitude levels, and which have different emission ratios <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx11" id="paren.17"/>.
In this study, we therefore carefully consider the vertical and temporal profiles of emissions from different sectors, which makes it possible to test for congruence.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Data and methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <label>2.1</label><title>Synthetic satellite observations</title>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e1333">Simulated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> field on 23 April 2015 in the SMARTCARB model domain overlaid with an example of a 250 km wide swath of the planned Sentinel <inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument (low-noise scenario). Missing <inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> measurements are shown in gray. Cloud cover is overlayed in white, with transparency corresponding to total cloud fraction.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=241.848425pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSS1">
  <label>2.1.1</label><title>Model simulations</title>
      <p id="d1e1382">The synthetic satellite observations were generated from high-resolution simulations conducted with the COSMO-GHG model.
COSMO is a hydrostatic, limited-area model developed by the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="paren.18"/>, for which an extension has been developed for the simulation of greenhouse gases (COSMO-GHG)<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33 bib1.bibx28" id="paren.19"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e1391">COSMO-GHG was set up to simulate <inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration fields for nearly the complete year 2015 (1 January–25 December).
The model domain extended about 750 km in the east–west and 650 km in the south–north direction.
It was centered over the city of Berlin and also covered numerous power plants in Germany and neighboring countries.
The spatial resolution was 1.1 km <inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.1 km horizontally with 60 vertical levels up to an altitude of 24 km.
Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/> presents the model domain and marks the location of Berlin and the six largest coal-fired power plants.
The detailed model setup is described by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx11" id="text.20"/>.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6698?><p id="d1e1428"><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>Initial and lateral boundary conditions (ICBCs) for meteorological variables were provided by the operational European COSMO-7 analyses of MeteoSwiss with hourly temporal and 7 km horizontal resolution.
For the tracers, ICBCs were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) through the European Earth observation program Copernicus.
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO boundary conditions were taken from a global free-running <inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulation with 137 levels and about 15 km horizontal resolution (T1279 spectral resolution, experiment gf39, class rd) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx3" id="paren.21"/>.
For NO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, boundary conditions were taken from ECMWF's operational global forecasts for aerosol and chemical species with 60 vertical levels and a horizontal resolution of about 60 km (T255 resolution, experiment 0001, class mc) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx21" id="paren.22"/>.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T1"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Table 1</label><caption><p id="d1e1475">Emissions of largest power plants in the model domain according to the TNO/MACC-3 inventory for the year 2011 as used in this study.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="4">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Power</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">CO</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">plant</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">(Mt yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">(kt yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">(kt yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Jänschwalde</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">33.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">26.9</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">44.1</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Boxberg</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">19.0</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">15.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">14.4</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Lippendorf</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">15.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">12.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">2.7</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Turów</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">8.7</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">13.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.3</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Schwarze Pumpe</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">8.2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">6.6</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">5.3</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e1657">Anthropogenic emissions were obtained by combining the third version of the TNO/MACC inventory (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx24" id="altparen.23"/>, for version 2), which was generated by the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) for the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Phase III (MACC-3) project, with a detailed inventory provided by the city of Berlin <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx4" id="paren.24"/>.
The inventories provide point and area sources separately for different sectors (e.g., industry, heating and road transport) using Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution (SNAP) categories.
The temporal variability of emissions was accounted for by applying diurnal, weekly and seasonal cycles according to SNAP categories.
Furthermore, emissions were vertically distributed using specific vertical profiles for the different emissions categories and plume rise calculations for the six largest power plants and the major point sources in Berlin <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx11" id="paren.25"/>.
Hourly biospheric fluxes of both photosynthesis and respiration were generated with the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) at the resolution of the COSMO model <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx29" id="paren.26"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e1672">According to the official inventory of the city of Berlin, total annual <inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions of Berlin were 16.9 Mt <inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (in the reference year 2012 of the inventory).
This is about a factor of 2 smaller than in previous studies, e.g., in the LOGOFLUX project <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx14 bib1.bibx5 bib1.bibx34" id="paren.27"/>, which relied on unrealistically high emissions as provided by the global EDGAR inventory (version 4.1).
Due to the diurnal cycle of emissions, emissions were somewhat larger (about 20.0 Mt <inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) around the time of the satellite overpasses (10:00–11:00 UTC).
Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T1"/> summarizes the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO emissions of the five largest power plants in the domain.</p>
      <p id="d1e1760">The simulations included a total of 50 different passively transported tracers representing the three different gases further divided into different sources, release times or release altitudes.
This also included background tracers constrained at the lateral boundaries by the global-scale models and two
tracers for biospheric respiration and photosynthesis for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.
Due to the reactivity of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, five different <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> tracers with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:mi>e</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-folding lifetimes of 2, 4, 12, and 24 h and infinity were included, considering that the lifetime of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> varies between about 2 and 24 h
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx40" id="paren.28"/>.
The full list of tracers is provided in the SMARTCARB final report <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx26" id="paren.29"><named-content content-type="post">p. 15f</named-content></xref>.</p>
      <p id="d1e1823">In this study we use the following seven tracers that have been computed from the 50 tracers in the simulations.
<list list-type="bullet"><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1828">X_BER: concentrations from time-varying emissions of Berlin;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1832">X_PP:  concentrations from time-varying emissions from the six  largest power plants in the model domain;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1836">X_ANTH: concentrations from other anthropogenic sources in the domain excluding emissions of Berlin (X_BER) and the six largest power plants (X_PP);</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1840">X_BIO: concentrations from local biospheric fluxes, i.e., respiration and photosynthesis within the domain (only for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>);</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1855">X_TOT: concentrations from all emissions and biospheric fluxes as well as inflow from lateral boundaries;</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1859">X_BER_BG: concentrations from emissions, fluxes and lateral boundaries excluding emissions from Berlin (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> X_TOT–X_BER); and</p></list-item><list-item>
      <p id="d1e1870">X_PP_BG: concentrations from emissions, fluxes and lateral boundaries excluding emissions from the six major power plants (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> X_TOT–X_PP),</p></list-item></list>
where X is <inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> or <inline-formula><mml:math id="M121" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations were calculated from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations using an empirical formula used frequently for representing <inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>:</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ratios downstream of emission sources <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx18" id="paren.30"/>.
For <inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> only the tracers with a lifetime of 4 h were used.
Note that only the sum of the emissions from the six power plants was simulated but not the power plants individually, which often complicated the analysis due to overlapping plumes.
For the analysis, the three-dimensional model fields were vertically integrated to compute column-averaged dry air mole fractions of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).
Likewise, tropospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M128" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M129" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> vertical column densities (VCDs) were generated by considering only the model fields below 10 km altitude.</p>
</sec>
<?pagebreak page6699?><sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSS2">
  <label>2.1.2</label><title>Satellite instrument scenarios</title>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Table 2</label><caption><p id="d1e2021">Satellite platforms and their orbit parameters used in this study. Note that some parameters slightly deviate from the real satellites (see text for details).</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="3">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="left"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Parameter</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">CO2M satellite</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">MetOp-SG-A</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Orbit type</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Sun-synchronous</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Sun-synchronous</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Inclination</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">97.77<inline-formula><mml:math id="M130" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">98.7<inline-formula><mml:math id="M131" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Orbits per day</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M132" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">11</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M133" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">14</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">29</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Cycle duration</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">11 d</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">29 d</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Cycle length</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">164 orbits</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">412 orbits</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Altitude</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">602.24 km</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">830.16 km</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Orbit period</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">96.58 min</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">101.36 min</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Local time in descending node</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">11:30 h</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">09:30 h</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">(Equator crossing time)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Table 3</label><caption><p id="d1e2207">Observation geometries for instruments on the CO2M satellite and Sentinel-5 used in this study. Note that some parameters can differ from the real satellites (see text for details).</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="3">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="left"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Parameter</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">CO2M satellite</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Sentinel-5</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Number of across-track pixels</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">125</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">208</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Swath</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">250 km</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2670 km</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Field of view</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">23.22<inline-formula><mml:math id="M134" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">107.1<inline-formula><mml:math id="M135" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Pixel size</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M136" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2 km</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">from 7.5 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M137" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 7.5 km (nadir) to 35 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M138" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 7.5 km (swath edge)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Along-track sampling time</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.286 s</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1.13 s</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e2336">The CO2M mission is a proposed constellation of satellites flying in a sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit with Equator crossing times around 11:30 local time.
Each satellite will carry an imaging spectrometer measuring in the near-infrared (NIR) and in two shortwave infrared spectral bands (SWIR 1 and SWIR 2) for retrieving <inline-formula><mml:math id="M139" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as the main payload.
The NIR band is used to retrieve information on the dry air column, on surface pressure, and on aerosols and clouds.
The SWIR-1 and SWIR-2 bands contain weak and strong absorption features of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M140" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and provide additional information on aerosols and clouds, especially on thin cirrus clouds.
A <inline-formula><mml:math id="M141" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> retrieval using these three bands is described for example by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx32" id="text.31"/>.
CO2M is planned to carry also additional instruments for measuring <inline-formula><mml:math id="M142" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, aerosols and clouds. In an earlier phase, also an instrument measuring CO was considered.
The preliminary system concept envisages a pixel size of 4 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M143" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and a swath width of 250 km or more.</p>
      <p id="d1e2397">For the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M144" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M145" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> satellite observations, different instrument scenarios were prescribed by ESA for this study in terms of orbit, spatial resolution, and spatial and temporal coverage of the CO2M instrument.
In addition, the Sentinel-5 instrument on board the Meteorological Operational Satellite – Second Generation A (MetOp-SG-A) was studied as an alternative platform for CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M146" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> measurements.
Sentinel-5 will be an imaging spectrometer measuring, among others, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M147" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO columns with a spatial resolution of 7 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M148" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 7 km and a 2650 km swath.
MetOp-SG-A will be also on a sun-synchronous orbit but with different Equator crossing times and repeat cycles than the CO2M mission.</p>
      <p id="d1e2451">In addition to a single satellite, the potential of a constellation of multiple CO2M satellites was also studied. The basic assumption for a constellation is that the individual satellites are spaced with equal angular distance in the same orbit with the same orbit parameters, for instance separated by 180, 120 and 90<inline-formula><mml:math id="M149" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> on a full circle in the case of 2, 3 and 4 satellites. The individual satellites can be distinguished by their starting longitude at the Equator of the first orbit in the repeat cycle.
Here, we analyze constellations between one and six satellites.</p>
      <p id="d1e2463">For the computation of orbits, we adopted the orbit simulator of the Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON).
Since this simulator makes a few simplifying assumptions, such as circular orbits and tiled ground pixels, satellite and instrument parameters were slightly modified to preserve essential parameters.
In particular, orbit periods were calculated to match a given cycle duration and length.
The period then determines the altitude and inclination of a circular, sun-synchronous orbit.
The altitude of the circular orbits is slightly larger than the typically used mean altitude for elliptic orbits.
Since the altitude affects the size of the ground pixels and the width of the swath, field of view and along-track sampling time were set to match exactly the prescribed pixel size at subsatellite point as well as the prescribed swath width.
As a result, the number of across-track pixels for the simulated Sentinel-5 did not match exactly the number of pixels for the real Sentinel-5 instrument.</p>
      <p id="d1e2466">Tables <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T2"/> and <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T3"/> summarize the orbits and viewing geometries of the two satellites.
The CO2M satellite is assumed to have a 250 km wide swath and an 11 d repeat cycle.
Within the 11 d cycle, the instrument provides nearly global spatial coverage (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>).
For locations in the SMARTCARB model domain, either one or two overpasses occur during the 11 d repeat cycle depending on the Equator starting longitude of the satellite.
The wider swath of Sentinel-5 results in near-daily global coverage (not shown).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e2477">Spatial coverage of one CO2M satellite within its 11 d repeat cycle <bold>(a)</bold> globally and <bold>(b)</bold> over Europe. The white square marks the COSMO-GHG model domain in which the number of overpasses is either one or two. The exact locations of the stripes are arbitrary and depend on the Equator starting longitude (here: 0<inline-formula><mml:math id="M150" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E) of the satellite.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f02.png"/>

          </fig>

      <p id="d1e2502"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M151" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M152" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> column densities were sampled along the satellite swath for 1 year using the tracers from the COSMO-GHG simulations.
For CO2M, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M153" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M154" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> columns were mapped onto the 2 km <inline-formula><mml:math id="M155" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2 km size pixels along the 250 km wide swath.</p>
      <p id="d1e2555">For Sentinel-5, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M156" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> columns were sampled with up to 7.5 km <inline-formula><mml:math id="M157" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 7.5 km resolution along the 2670 km wide swath of the Sentinel-5 instrument.
Due to the wide swath, the pixel sizes grow towards the edge of the swath.
In this study, only the spatial overlap between Sentinel-5 and CO2M were of interest because Sentinel-5 was used for detecting the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M158" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission plumes inside the swath of CO2M.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSS3">
  <label>2.1.3</label><title>Instrument error characteristics</title>
      <p id="d1e2596">The error characteristics of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M159" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M160" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO instruments were specified in collaboration with ESA based on previous studies for CarbonSat <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx12" id="paren.32"/> and on performance requirements for Sentinel-5 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="paren.33"/>.
For the instruments on the CO2M satellites, two or three scenarios were included in order to cover a realistic range between more or less demanding instruments.
Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T4"/> summarizes the single sounding precision of the different instruments.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Table 4</label><caption><p id="d1e2632">Instrument uncertainty scenarios. VEG50 refers to a reference scene with a surface albedo of a vegetated surface and a solar zenith angle (SZA) of 50<inline-formula><mml:math id="M161" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="5">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="left"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Scenario name</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Species</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Satellite(s)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col4" nameend="col5" align="center">Reference noise (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M163" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ref</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">absolute<inline-formula><mml:math id="M164" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">relative<inline-formula><mml:math id="M165" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M166" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M167" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">CO2M</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.5 ppm</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M168" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> medium noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M169" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">CO2M</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.7 ppm</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M170" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M171" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">CO2M</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.0 ppm</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M172" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M173" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">CO2M</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M174" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M175" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M176" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">15 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M177" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M178" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">CO2M</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">2.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M179" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M180" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M181" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">20 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M182" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> Sentinel-5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M183" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Sentinel-5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M184" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M185" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M186" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">20 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CO low noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">CO</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Sentinel-5 and CO2M</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">4.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M187" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M188" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M189" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">10 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CO high noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">CO</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Sentinel-5 and CO2M</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">4.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M190" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M191" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M192" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">20 %</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table><table-wrap-foot><p id="d1e2644"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M162" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>*</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> Whichever is larger.</p></table-wrap-foot></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e3138">For <inline-formula><mml:math id="M193" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, three different uncertainty scenarios were considered which relate back to the performance estimates derived for the CarbonSat mission concept. CarbonSat was a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M194" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> imaging spectrometer proposed for ESA's eighth Earth Explorer mission, with specifications similar to those of the CO2M mission.
A detailed error budget for CarbonSat was presented in the CarbonSat report for mission selection <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx19" id="paren.34"/>.
In the LOGOFLUX study, error parameterization formulas (EPFs) for random and systematic errors were developed, which account for errors introduced by solar zenith angle (SZA), surface reflectance in the near-infrared (NIR) and shortwave infrared (SWIR 1), cirrus clouds and aerosol optical depth <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx12" id="paren.35"/>.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6700?><p id="d1e3170">Here, the same EPFs were adopted but only applied to compute random errors.
These were calculated based on SZA and surface reflectance in the NIR and SWIR-1 band.
Surface reflectances were taken from the MODIS MCD43A3 product (version 006) at 1 km spatial resolution <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="paren.36"/>.
A detailed consideration of cirrus clouds and aerosols and their impact on systematic errors was outside the scope of the study as it would have required the collection and processing of a large amount of additional data.
The possible impact of not considering systematic errors will briefly be discussed in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S4"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e3178">The random error calculated with the EPFs for the so-called vegetation-50 scenario (VEG50, i.e., vegetation albedo and SZA of 50<inline-formula><mml:math id="M195" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) is about 1.5 ppm.
In the model domain, mean random errors are slightly smaller at 1.3 ppm.
To obtain random errors for the three instrument scenarios with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M196" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 0.5, 0.7 and 1.0 ppm, the computed errors were divided by 3.0, 2.14 and 1.5, respectively.</p>
      <p id="d1e3204">For <inline-formula><mml:math id="M197" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> VCDs, the overall uncertainties are due to (a) measurement noise and spectral fitting affecting the slant column densities; (b) uncertainties related to the separation of the stratospheric and tropospheric
column; and (c) uncertainties in the auxiliary parameters used for air mass factor (AMF) calculations such as clouds, surface reflectance, a priori profile shapes and aerosols <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx7" id="paren.37"/>.
The total uncertainties are dominated by uncertainties from spectral fitting for background pixels and by uncertainties in AMF calculations for polluted pixels, respectively.
Typical spectral fitting uncertainties of previous instruments such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) were of the order of 1–2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M198" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M199" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molecules cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M200" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and AMF uncertainties of the order of 15 %–20 %.
These ranges were used to define two different scenarios for a possible CO2M <inline-formula><mml:math id="M201" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument (Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T4"/>).
For the Sentinel-5 UVNS instrument, we assumed a relative uncertainty of 20 % and a minimum uncertainty of 1.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M202" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M203" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molecules cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M204" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>.
In the presence of clouds, the reference noise was increased using the empirical formula developed by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx48" id="text.38"/>.
For a cloud fraction of 30 %, random noise is approximately doubled.</p>
      <p id="d1e3294">For CO VCDs, the total uncertainty depends on the (a) fitting noise; (b) a priori CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M205" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CH</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> profiles; and (c) surface reflectance, aerosols and clouds.
We assumed a single sounding precision of 4.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M206" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M207" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molecules cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M208" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and a relative precision of 10 % and 20 % for both Sentinel-5 and the CO2M mission.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1.SSS4">
  <label>2.1.4</label><title>Cloud filtering</title>
      <p id="d1e3344">Satellite observations require filtering for clouds, which significantly reduces the number of observations available for plume detection.
For the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M209" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> product, we removed all <inline-formula><mml:math id="M210" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels with cloud fractions larger than 1 % because the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M211" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> requires rigorous cloud filtering <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42" id="paren.39"/>.
The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M212" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> retrieval can tolerate larger errors and is therefore less sensitive to clouds. For the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M213" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> product, we used a cloud threshold of 30 % as often applied in satellite <inline-formula><mml:math id="M214" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> studies <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8" id="paren.40"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.,</named-content></xref>.
For CO, a cloud threshold of 5 % was used, which is motivated by the cloud threshold used for the MOPITT CO product
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx17 bib1.bibx30" id="paren.41"/>.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6701?><p id="d1e3425"><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>Previous studies used the MODIS cloud mask product available at 1 km resolution <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2" id="paren.42"/> for masking cloudy <inline-formula><mml:math id="M215" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx12 bib1.bibx34" id="paren.43"/>.
Since CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M216" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations can tolerate larger cloud fractions, a cloud fraction product would be needed for masking pixels with different thresholds, but the MODIS cloud product is only available at 5 km resolution <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx36" id="paren.44"/>.
Therefore, we used total cloud fractions computed by COSMO-GHG, i.e., the same model as used for the tracer transport simulations, that are available at model resolution.
COSMO-GHG computes total cloud fraction from layer cloud fractions assuming minimum overlap.
The differences between cloud masks derived from COSMO-GHG and MODIS products and their effects on data yield are discussed in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S4.SS1"/>.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <label>2.2</label><title>Plume detection algorithm</title>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e3474">Schematic of the processing steps of the plume detection algorithm. <bold>(a)</bold> A large (blue) and a small plume (red) with sources marked by arrows are located within the satellite overpass. <bold>(b)</bold> Pixels detected based on the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M217" display="inline"><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test are marked with “D”. <bold>(c)</bold> Connected pixels are given a unique number each denoting a different plume. <bold>(d)</bold> All plumes not connected with the source of interest (blue circle) are rejected.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e3504">Examples of neighborhoods with different sizes (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M218" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) used for calculating the local mean.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2.SSS1">
  <label>2.2.1</label><title>Algorithm</title>
      <p id="d1e3531">We developed a new but simple plume detection algorithm that uses a statistical test to detect signal enhancements which are significant with respect to instrument noise and variability in background levels.
The plume is then identified as a coherent structure of significant pixels.
The algorithm involves three processing steps as laid out in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e3536">The first step of the plume detection algorithm finds satellite pixels with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M219" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO or <inline-formula><mml:math id="M220" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> values significantly larger than the background field using a statistical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M221" display="inline"><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test, for which the distribution of the test statistics can be approximated by a normal distribution <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx47" id="paren.45"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.,</named-content></xref>. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M222" display="inline"><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test computes a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M223" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value given by
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E1" content-type="numbered"><label>1</label><mml:math id="M224" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M225" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is an observation from a population with mean value <inline-formula><mml:math id="M226" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and standard deviation <inline-formula><mml:math id="M227" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. The value <inline-formula><mml:math id="M228" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is considered significantly larger than <inline-formula><mml:math id="M229" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> when the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M230" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value is greater that or equal to a critical value. The critical value is calculated from the inverse cumulative distribution function of the normal distribution for a probability <inline-formula><mml:math id="M231" display="inline"><mml:mi>q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. The probability that <inline-formula><mml:math id="M232" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is not significantly larger than <inline-formula><mml:math id="M233" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">μ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M234" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M235" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi>q</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p>
      <p id="d1e3699">A key feature of the algorithm is that the trace gas observation of a single pixel is replaced by a spatial average of pixels in a defined neighborhood.
This allows identifying weak plumes with signals of individual pixels well below instrument noise but also bares the risk of diluting the signal at the plume edges.
Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/> shows examples of neighborhoods with different sizes <inline-formula><mml:math id="M236" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> that have been used for testing the<?pagebreak page6702?> algorithm.
A large neighborhood results in a stronger smoothing and may therefore produce a larger number of false positives, i.e., pixels outside of the plume that are wrongly assigned to the plume.
An ideal neighborhood size balances the need for sensitive plume detection with the requirement of a low fraction of false positives.</p>
      <p id="d1e3715">Whether a signal enhancement is detectable is primarily determined by the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M237" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value (Eq. <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E1"/>), which can also be interpreted as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at a spatially smoothed satellite pixel.
Thereby, the signal is the enhancement above background due to the plume, and the noise is composed of both instrument noise and spatial variability in the background.
Since the background, i.e., the trace gas field in the absence of the plume, cannot be directly observed, it needs to be estimated either from the observable trace gas field surrounding the plume or from a climatology or a model.
Instrument noise and background variability can have both random and systematic components.
The random component would reduce with the inverse square root of the number of valid pixels <inline-formula><mml:math id="M238" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> in the neighborhood, whereas the systematic error would be approximately independent of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M239" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. The number of valid pixels <inline-formula><mml:math id="M240" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> can be smaller than the size of the neighborhood <inline-formula><mml:math id="M241" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> when pixels are missing, e.g., due to clouds or at the boundary of the satellite swath.
Therefore, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M242" display="inline"><mml:mi>z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value or the SNR can be calculated as follows:
              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E2" content-type="numbered"><label>2</label><mml:math id="M243" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SNR</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">obs</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bg</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:msqrt><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="false"><mml:mfrac style="text"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">rand</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">sys</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:msqrt></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>
            where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M244" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">obs</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> represents the spatially averaged satellite observations, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M245" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bg</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is the estimated background value, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M246" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">rand</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M247" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">sys</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are the random and systematic errors, respectively. Equation (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E2"/>) can be calculated for each satellite pixel and compared with the critical value to determine which <inline-formula><mml:math id="M248" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">obs</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>'s are significantly larger than <inline-formula><mml:math id="M249" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bg</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p id="d1e3887">To compute the SNRs from the satellite image, we computed observed values <inline-formula><mml:math id="M250" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">obs</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as the local means of a neighborhood of size <inline-formula><mml:math id="M251" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>).
For sake of simplicity, the background <inline-formula><mml:math id="M252" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bg</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in this study was estimated from the X_BER_BG and X_PP_BG model tracers for a 200 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M253" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 200 km square centered on the city of Berlin and a 100 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M254" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 100 km square centered on each power plants.
The implications of this assumption are discussed in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S4"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e3942">For random and systematic errors we assumed that the instrument uncertainty is purely random and that the background variability is purely systematic.
For the instrument uncertainty, random errors as listed in Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T4"/> were used,<?pagebreak page6703?> which reduce with the number of valid pixels in the local neighborhood <inline-formula><mml:math id="M255" display="inline"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> due to the inverse scaling by the number of pixels.
The background uncertainty <inline-formula><mml:math id="M256" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bg</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> was computed from the spatial variance of the background model tracer in a fixed domain surrounding the source as described above.
Since it is assumed to be systematic, it does not decrease with the size of the neighborhood.</p>
      <p id="d1e3967">The result of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M257" display="inline"><mml:mi>Z</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> test is a binary image with “true” values where pixels are significantly enhanced above the background and “false” values where they are not (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>b).
Since the local mean can still be computed for missing center pixels – using neighboring pixels – missing pixels can also be detected as enhanced above the background.</p>
      <p id="d1e3979">In the second step, pixels that are enhanced (true) and connected are
assumed to belong to the same plume. We label regions of connected pixels using a standard labeling algorithm. Neighboring pixels are identified using a Moore neighborhood, where each pixel has eight potential neighbors. Each region is assigned a unique integer value (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>c).</p>
      <p id="d1e3984">Finally, in the third step, all connected regions that do not intersect with the source region are removed, leaving only regions that overlap with the source of the plume (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>d).
For cities, the source region is defined by a circle with a radius of 15 km and for point sources by a circle with a radius of 5 km.
The last step may remove regions that are part of the real plume but separated from the source by weak signals or missing values (e.g., the region labeled “2” in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>c).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2.SSS2">
  <label>2.2.2</label><title>Performance evaluation</title>
      <p id="d1e4000">The plume detection algorithm was applied to the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M258" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes of Berlin
and Jänschwalde.
The detectability of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M259" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes was evaluated for the different instrument scenarios by comparing the detected plume with the “true plume” defined by the field of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M260" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> tracer released by the respective source (CO2_BER in the case of Berlin, CO2_PP for Jänschwalde) above a low threshold. For Jänschwalde, the performance had to be additionally evaluated by visual inspection due to frequent overlaps with the plumes of other power plants also contained in the CO2_PP tracer.</p>
      <p id="d1e4036">To evaluate the performance of Sentinel-5 with respect to detecting plumes as observed by CO2M, detected pixels had to be projected onto the pixels of the CO2M instrument.
Sentinel-5 pixels were thus only used over the swath of the CO2M satellite rather than over the whole swath of Sentinel-5.</p>
      <p id="d1e4039">When using <inline-formula><mml:math id="M261" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> or CO for plume detection, the performance was assessed by comparing the detected pixels with the true <inline-formula><mml:math id="M262" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume rather than the true plume of the auxiliary gas.
In this way, the degree of congruence between the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M263" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and auxiliary trace gas plumes was considered as well.</p>
      <p id="d1e4075">For the evaluation, we computed true positives (TPs), false positives (FPs) and the positive predictive value (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M264" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PPV</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">TP</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">TP</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">FP</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx43" id="paren.46"/>.
A good algorithm should have a much smaller number of FPs than TPs and, therefore, a PPV close to 1.
To remove the impact of different cloud thresholds, TPs, FPs and PPVs were only computed for cloud-free pixels using a cloud threshold of 1 % because we are primarily interested in valid <inline-formula><mml:math id="M265" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations that can be used for estimating <inline-formula><mml:math id="M266" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Results</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Coverage and potential for plume detection</title>
      <p id="d1e4144">In this section, the potential for plume detection is analyzed based on the simulated tracers emitted by the source of interest.
These true plumes will be used in the following sections as reference to evaluate the performance of the plume detection algorithm.
They can be interpreted as the maximum number of plumes detectable by a perfect, noise-free instrument.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e4149">Examples of true <inline-formula><mml:math id="M267" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes of Berlin (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M268" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signal <inline-formula><mml:math id="M269" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm) with different cloud cover fractions (cc). The numbers of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M270" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels are shown for cloud fractions <inline-formula><mml:math id="M271" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %. <bold>(a–d)</bold> Plumes with increasing cloud fraction; <bold>(e)</bold> plume close to the edge of the swath; <bold>(f)</bold> plume without cloud-free <inline-formula><mml:math id="M272" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations connected to Berlin.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f05.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e4232">The frequency with which the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M273" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes of a given source can be observed depends on how often a satellite passes over the source, how often the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M274" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signal is larger than the threshold and how often cloud-free conditions dominate during the overpass.
We define an overpass as an intersection between the satellite swath and the source region as specified above.
The number of overpasses scales with the number of satellites and the swath width of the instrument. The scaling with the number of satellites is not trivial, however, since individual satellites may pass over the source either once or twice during the 11 d repeat cycle depending on the satellite's Equator starting longitude (see Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>).</p>
      <p id="d1e4260">The total number of overpasses per satellite is either 34 or 66 per year, depending on whether the satellite has one or two overpasses per 11 d repeat cycle.
Since one out of four satellites has only one overpass per 11 d, the number of overpasses per year roughly scales with a factor 1.75 times the number of satellites times the number of 11 d periods per year (about 33).
A constellation of six satellites covers the model domain nearly daily.</p>
      <p id="d1e4263">To define the extent of a plume in the satellite image, we have to set a signal threshold for the tracer field (XCO2_BER for Berlin) above which a pixel is considered as belonging to the plume.
A possible threshold is the value at which the signal would become larger than the variability of the background, i.e., where the signal is larger than the standard deviation of the background.
Based on the time series of standard deviations of the model background tracer (XCO2_BER_BG for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M275" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) computed for a 200 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M276" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 200 km square centered on the city of Berlin (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>c, f and i), we defined a threshold of 0.05 ppm for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M277" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 0.2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M278" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M279" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">15</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M280" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M281" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and 0.06 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M282" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M283" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M284" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> for CO approximately corresponding to the minimum of the standard deviations.
Note that these thresholds are significantly smaller than the noise level of the instruments.</p>
      <p id="d1e4365">A plume was defined as the collection of pixels for which the signal is larger than the threshold.
However, we also<?pagebreak page6704?> required that Berlin is inside the swath of the instrument to be able to unambiguously assign a plume to the city.
Furthermore, we removed parts of plumes that reentered the swath after leaving it because it is often not possible to correctly assign these parts to their source.</p>
      <p id="d1e4368">Since a satellite image can be obscured by clouds, we need to define how many pixels are needed to make up a useful plume. This number depends on the application.
For example, to estimate emissions of cities, we require that the plume must extend beyond the city limits to contain emissions from the whole city area.
The crosswind diameter of Berlin's <inline-formula><mml:math id="M285" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume is typically about 20 km or 10 satellite pixels, which is roughly the diameter of the part of the city with the highest emissions.
To cover at least the whole city area, we only consider <inline-formula><mml:math id="M286" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes with at least 100 cloud-free <inline-formula><mml:math id="M287" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels to be useful.
For the power plants, the crosswind<?pagebreak page6705?> diameter is less than 5 pixels near the source.
Therefore, 10 pixels were used to define the minimum number for a useful plume in this case.
It should be noted that this number of pixels is not necessarily sufficient for estimating the emissions of a source with certain accuracy, which depends, among others, on instrument precision, meteorology and source strength.
Nonetheless, detecting the full crosswind diameter is the minimum requirement, for example, for flux-based inversion methods <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx23 bib1.bibx38" id="paren.47"><named-content content-type="pre">e.g.,</named-content></xref>.
The number of detected pixels is a useful measure for comparing the detectability of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M288" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M289" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M290" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations because source strength and meteorology are the same for a given source.</p>
      <p id="d1e4443">For a signal threshold of 0.05 ppm, Berlin's <inline-formula><mml:math id="M291" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume always has more than 100 pixels above the signal threshold.
However, many plumes are partly or fully covered by clouds significantly reducing the number of useful plumes.
Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>a–d present examples of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M292" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes under different cloud conditions with an increasing fraction of cloudy pixels.
Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>c and d show examples with plumes of only 11 and 20 pixels, which is much smaller than the area of the city.
On the other hand, the 100-pixel threshold does not necessarily remove swaths with plumes in broken clouds (e.g., Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>b), for which it will also be challenging to estimate emissions, because adjacent cloudy pixels increase the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M293" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> uncertainty <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42" id="paren.48"/>.
The number of plumes with at least 100 pixels is also reduced when the source is close to the edge of the swath
and winds are pushing the plume out of the view of the satellite (e.g., Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>e).
These overpasses occur every 11 d due to the repeat cycle of the satellite.
As a result, orbits with plumes near the edge of the swath can have up to 20 % less useful plumes.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e4494">Number of cloud-free plumes of the city of Berlin with at least 100 pixels per month for <bold>(a)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M294" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <bold>(b)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M295" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <bold>(c)</bold> CO. The cloud threshold is 1 % for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M296" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 30 % for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M297" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and 5 % for CO observations. Error bars are obtained by comparing all available satellites. The number of expected plumes per satellite is 8, 17 and 9 for the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M298" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M299" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO instrument, respectively.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e4579">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/> presents the number of useful city plumes (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M300" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">100</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels) per month for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M301" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M302" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO for constellations of one to six satellites.
Plumes without cloud-free observations over the source region (e.g., Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/>f) were removed because they cannot be detected by the algorithm used in this study.
A constellation of six satellites observes only 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M303" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M304" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes within 1 year despite almost daily overpasses due to the small number of days with low cloud fractions.
Except for February, which was an unusually sunny month in 2015, there is a clear tendency of higher cloud fractions and correspondingly fewer plume observations in winter than in summer.
The standard deviations shown in the figures as vertical black bars were estimated from the scatter of observable plumes using satellites with different Equator starting longitudes.
The presence of clouds thus reduces the opportunity for plume detection by a factor as a large as 5 to 6 over the city of Berlin.
The number of observable <inline-formula><mml:math id="M305" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes per year (108 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M306" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 8) is about twice as large as for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M307" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which is primarily due to the larger cloud threshold of 30 %.
For CO the number of observable plumes per year is 58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M308" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5. The average number of plumes per satellite and year is thus about 8 (range: 3–13), 9 (4–15) and 17 (7–23) for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M309" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M310" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, respectively.</p>
      <p id="d1e4696">The number of observable plumes varies strongly between the individual satellites of a constellation because the number of cloud-free days per year is quite small and the overpass days are different for different Equator starting longitudes.
Since satellites are equally spaced in orbit, changing the number of satellites changes the starting longitudes and overpass days of the satellites.
As a consequence, the number of observable plumes per constellation can also fluctuate strongly.
According to Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/>, for example, a constellation of two satellites seems almost equivalent to a constellation of three, but this result is merely a consequence of the fact that cloud cover was often large during these overpasses and Berlin was at the edge of the swath for the satellite with a starting longitude of 8<inline-formula><mml:math id="M311" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>.
The result would be different for another starting longitude of the first satellite, another city, or another year.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Signal-to-noise ratios</title>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d1e4720">Time series of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M312" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M313" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO plume signals <bold>(a, d, g)</bold>; mean backgrounds <bold>(b, e, h)</bold>; and standard deviations of backgrounds <bold>(c, f, i)</bold> for Berlin. Signals are the largest local mean values of the X_BER model tracer using a 37-pixel neighborhood. Background means and standard deviations were obtained from the X_BER_BG tracer for a 200 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M314" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 200 km square centered over Berlin. Reference uncertainties (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M315" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ref</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) corresponding to the different instrument scenarios are shown as horizontal lines for comparison.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f07.png"/>

        </fig>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T5"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><label>Table 5</label><caption><p id="d1e4789">The 5th, 50th and 95th percentile of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M316" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M317" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO signals of Berlin as well as Jänschwalde and Lippendorf power stations.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="5">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="left"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Species</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">5th</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">50th</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">95th</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col4">Berlin </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M318" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (ppm)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.16</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.33</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.03</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M319" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M320" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">16</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M321" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.30</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.63</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.56</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CO (10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M322" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M323" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.12</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.27</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.96</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col4">Jänschwalde power station </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M324" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (ppm)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1.28</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2.69</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">6.64</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M325" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M326" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">16</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M327" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">2.09</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">4.30</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">10.0</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CO (10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M328" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M329" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.55</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1.14</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">2.88</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col4">Lippendorf power station </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M330" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (ppm)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.53</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1.29</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">3.73</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M331" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M332" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">16</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M333" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.85</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">2.03</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">5.37</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CO (10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M334" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M335" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.03</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.08</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.22</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5"/>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

<?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T6"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><label>Table 6</label><caption><p id="d1e5222">Median signal-to-noise ratios for signals of Berlin, Jänschwalde and Lippendorf using different uncertainty scenarios. The signals were computed as largest local mean values using a local neighborhood size <inline-formula><mml:math id="M336" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 37 and 5 for cities and power stations, respectively.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="4">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>

         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" colname="col1" morerows="1">Scenario name</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col2" nameend="col4" align="center">Signal-to-noise ratio </oasis:entry>

       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">

         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Berlin</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Jänschwalde</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Lippendorf</oasis:entry>

       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>

         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M337" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low noise</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1.4</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col3">10.4</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col4">4.3</oasis:entry>

       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>

         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M338" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> medium noise</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1.4</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col3">8.0</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col4">3.5</oasis:entry>

       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>

         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M339" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high noise</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1.2</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col3">5.8</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col4">2.6</oasis:entry>

       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>

         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M340" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low noise</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col2">9.0</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col3">14.3</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col4">8.8</oasis:entry>

       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>

         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M341" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high noise</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col2">8.4</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col3">10.8</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col4">7.5</oasis:entry>

       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>

         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CO low/high noise</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.4</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.6</oasis:entry>

         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.0</oasis:entry>

       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e5418">The key measure that determines the detectability of a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M342" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume is the SNR (Eq. <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E2"/>), which compares the amplitude of the plume signal to the instrument noise and the variability of the background.
SNRs provide a first indication of an instrument's suitability for detecting a plume.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6707?><p id="d1e5434">Time series of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M343" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M344" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO plume signals were computed from the X_BER and X_PP tracers for Berlin and the power stations Jänschwalde and Lippendorf at the overpass time of CO2M, i.e., about 11:00 UTC.
The signals were computed as maximum values of the local means within the source region, i.e., a circle with 15 or 5 km radius.
Thereby, the local means were computed with a neighborhood <inline-formula><mml:math id="M345" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of size 37 for Berlin and 5 for the power stations (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/>).
A large neighborhood reduces the random noise of the measurements and therefore allows detecting smaller signals. On the other hand, a large neighborhood will include background values in the computation of the averages at the plume edges and reduce the signal.
The sizes used here roughly correspond to the typical diameters of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M346" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes from Berlin (about 15 km) and the power stations (about 6 km), respectively, and were also found most suitable for the plume detection algorithm because they maximize TPs without reducing PPVs too much <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx26" id="paren.49"><named-content content-type="pre">see also</named-content></xref>.
The results for Berlin are presented in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/> for the three trace gases.
The figure compares the daily plume signals (left panels) to the daily mean background values (middle) and their spatial variability (right).
The 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles of the time series are summarized in Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T5"/> for Berlin as well as for the power stations.
The signals have a large range due to the variability of emissions (e.g., lower during weekends) and meteorology.
The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M347" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M348" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signals of the power stations are between 5 and 10 times larger than those of Berlin.
The CO signal of Lippendorf, on the other hand, is smaller than the signal of Berlin.
The power plants produce strong local enhancements easily detectable by the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M349" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> satellite, but the corresponding plumes are much narrower than those of Berlin.</p>
      <p id="d1e5526">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>b and c present the spatial means and standard deviations of the background around Berlin.
Background <inline-formula><mml:math id="M350" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> has a strong annual cycle with an amplitude of about 16 ppm.
Since the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M351" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume signal of Berlin is typically only about 0.2 to 1.0 ppm, it is critical to accurately estimate the background <inline-formula><mml:math id="M352" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> value in Eq. (<xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="Ch1.E2"/>).
The spatial variability <inline-formula><mml:math id="M353" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">bg</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the background, on the other hand, is typically only of the order of a few tenths of a part per million. Despite higher <inline-formula><mml:math id="M354" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in winter than in summer, the variability is somewhat larger in summer due to stronger biospheric activity in combination with lower average wind speeds, especially in July and August.
Large peaks in the background variability are often caused by plumes from other anthropogenic sources such as the power stations in the southeast of Berlin (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/>).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F8" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{8}?><label>Figure 8</label><caption><p id="d1e5593">Example of plume detection with CO2M's <inline-formula><mml:math id="M355" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M356" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument and Sentinel-5's <inline-formula><mml:math id="M357" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument on 21 April 2015. Significant pixels detected by the algorithm are highlighted as black crosses. The outlines of the true <inline-formula><mml:math id="M358" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M359" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes based on the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M360" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BER</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> tracers are overlaid as solid and dashed lines, respectively. <bold>(a)</bold> Low-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M361" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument. <bold>(b)</bold> High-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M362" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument. <bold>(c)</bold> High-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M363" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument on the CO2M satellite. <bold>(d)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M364" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument on Sentinel-5.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e5727">For <inline-formula><mml:math id="M365" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the annual cycle of the background is relatively constant for our idealized <inline-formula><mml:math id="M366" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> tracer with a constant lifetime of 4 h (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>e and f).
In reality, the lifetime will likely be longer and the variability correspondingly higher in winter.
The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M367" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signal of Berlin is significantly larger than the background and its variability.
Similar to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M368" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the CO time series has a strong annual cycle with an amplitude of about <inline-formula><mml:math id="M369" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">17</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> molec. cm<inline-formula><mml:math id="M370" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/>h and i) requiring again an accurate estimation of the background.
The standard deviation of the background is about half of the CO signal.</p>
      <p id="d1e5806">Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T6"/> summarizes the median of all SNRs of Berlin and the two power stations for the different satellite instrument scenarios that have been computed from the time series of highest signals.
To understand the numbers, it should be noted that a plume pixel would be detectable when the SNR is larger than 2.3; i.e., <inline-formula><mml:math id="M371" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>z</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi>q</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2.3</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M372" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>q</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">99</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %.
For Berlin, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M373" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> SNRs are below this detection limit for all noise levels while <inline-formula><mml:math id="M374" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> SNRs are above the limit.
For the two power stations, SNRs are above the detection limit both for the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M375" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M376" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument scenarios, but SNRs for the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M377" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument scenarios are always larger.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6708?><p id="d1e5897">Based on the SNRs, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M378" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes should be well detectable.
For Berlin, the detection of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M379" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M380" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument will often be challenging due to low SNRs.
The CO SNRs are always much smaller than those for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M381" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, making a CO instrument with the given specifications less suitable for the purpose of plume detection.
In the following, we therefore only investigate the potential benefit of auxiliary <inline-formula><mml:math id="M382" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <label>3.3</label><title>Plume detection algorithm</title>
      <p id="d1e5963">The plume detection algorithm was applied to the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M383" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes of Berlin and Jänschwalde for different instrument scenarios.
The probability <inline-formula><mml:math id="M384" display="inline"><mml:mi>q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> was set to 99 % and neighborhood sizes of 37 and 5 were selected for Berlin and the power stations, respectively.
In the case of Sentinel-5, the corresponding neighborhood sizes were set to 5 and 1 due the larger pixels of this satellite.
Based on an analysis of the positive predictive values, these neighborhood sizes were found most suitable for detecting the city and power plant plumes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx26" id="paren.50"/>.
For Berlin, 20 synthetic satellite images were created for each single overpass with different patterns of random noise.
The plume detection algorithm was subsequently applied to each image, and the results were averaged to obtain more robust results independent of the selected noise pattern.
For Jänschwalde, only one synthetic satellite image was created for each overpass because no model tracer was available to compare the results with a true plume.</p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3.SSS1">
  <label>3.3.1</label><title>Examples of detected plumes from Berlin</title>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F9" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{9}?><label>Figure 9</label><caption><p id="d1e5997"><bold>(a)</bold> Example of 27 February 2015 where plume detection with a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M385" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument fails because of pronounced horizontal gradients in the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M386" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> background field. <bold>(c)</bold> Example of 2 July 2015 where the plume detection fails due to small <inline-formula><mml:math id="M387" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signals as a result of high wind speeds. In both cases, the plume can readily be detected with a high-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M388" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument (panels <bold>b</bold> and <bold>d</bold>).</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f09.png"/>

          </fig>

      <p id="d1e6062">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/> shows the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M389" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M390" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes of Berlin on 21 April 2015 observed by CO2M and Sentinel-5 for different instrument scenarios.
The outlines of the real plumes are overlaid as solid and dashed lines for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M391" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M392" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, respectively.
Since the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M393" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments have a lower cloud threshold, a band of cirrus clouds is obscuring the plume in the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M394" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations but not in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M395" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.
Successfully detected pixels are shown as black crosses, and the number of detected pixels (median of all 20 noise realizations) are presented in the legend.
On average, a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M396" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument detects <inline-formula><mml:math id="M397" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">116</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">46</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M398" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">48</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">40</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M399" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">24</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">30</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels with noise scenarios <inline-formula><mml:math id="M400" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 0.5, 0.7 and 1.0 ppm, respectively (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>a and b).
The number of true positives is slightly smaller, having on average 2 false-positive pixels.
Consequently, the PPV is high, ranging between 0.85 and 0.99 for high- and low-noise, respectively.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6709?><p id="d1e6209">For the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M401" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> measurement the band of thin cirrus clouds is not an issue. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M402" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument can therefore detect a much larger number of pixels, i.e., <inline-formula><mml:math id="M403" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1242</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">99</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M404" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1203</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">155</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the case of the low-noise and the high-noise scenarios, respectively (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>c).
On average, the fraction of FPs is relatively large, and the PPV is only <inline-formula><mml:math id="M405" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.80</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M406" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.77</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.10</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for the low- and high-noise scenarios, respectively.
The small PPV is caused by interference with the plume of Jänschwalde, which is just south of the plume of Berlin.
For cases where no neighboring plumes have been detected falsely with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M407" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument, the spatial match between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M408" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M409" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes is generally high, suggesting a high degree of spatial overlap between the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M410" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M411" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes.</p>
      <p id="d1e6342">The Sentinel-5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M412" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument is also able to detect the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M413" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M414" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">879</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">114</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> CO2M pixels, but since it is measured 2 h earlier, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M415" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume seen by Sentinel-5 (dashed line in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/>d) is slightly shifted with respect to the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M416" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume (solid line).
As a consequence, the PPVs is low (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M417" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.60</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.04</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).</p>
      <p id="d1e6416">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/> presents two examples where the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M418" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument fails to detect the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M419" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume.
In Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>a, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M420" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> field has a pronounced spatial gradient resulting in a high variance of the background.
This gradient is not present in the much-shorter-lived trace gas <inline-formula><mml:math id="M421" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, making it possible to detect the plume using an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M422" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>b).
Similar situations occur in roughly 20 % of cloud-free swaths.
Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/>c and d show a second example where the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M423" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument cannot detect the plume because the signal is very weak due to strong winds.
Owing to its better SNR, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M424" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument is able to detect the plume also in this situation.</p>
      <p id="d1e6505">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/> presents two examples comparing the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M425" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume observed by Sentinel-5 to the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M426" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume observed 2 h later by the CO2M satellite.
In the first example (panels a and b), Sentinel-5 fails to detect any plume due to clouds, which have largely disappeared by the time of the CO2M overpass.
In the second example, both Sentinel-5 and the CO2M satellite detect a plume of similar size, but the Sentinel-5 plume is significantly displaced due to changes in the prevailing winds between the two overpasses.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F10" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{10}?><label>Figure 10</label><caption><p id="d1e6534">Examples of comparing plume detection between the <bold>(a, c)</bold> CO2M's and <bold>(b, d)</bold> Sentinel-5's <inline-formula><mml:math id="M427" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments. <bold>(a, b)</bold> Due to a time lag of 2 h, the scene is cloudy during the Sentinel-5 overpass but not during the CO2M overpass (3 December 2015). <bold>(c, d)</bold> The plume position clearly changed between the two overpasses (17 June 2015).</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f10.png"/>

          </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3.SSS2">
  <label>3.3.2</label><title>Number and sizes of detected Berlin plumes</title>
      <p id="d1e6574">To count the number of plumes detectable under the different instrument scenarios, we analyze the 50 plumes observed by a constellation of six satellites, which we had classified in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS1"/> as being potentially useful based on the idealized tracer <inline-formula><mml:math id="M428" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BER</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> having more than 100 pixels above a threshold of 0.05 ppm.
Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T7"/> summarizes the results in terms of number and size of the detected plumes.
A plume was only counted as detected when at least 100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M429" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels were correctly detected (true positives) and when at least 80 % of the detected pixels were true positives (PPV <inline-formula><mml:math id="M430" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.80).
The PPV threshold was found useful for removing plumes interfering with others or plumes shifted due to the earlier overpass time of Sentinel-5.</p>
      <p id="d1e6610">Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T7"/> shows that the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M431" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2<?pagebreak page6710?></mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments detect significantly fewer plumes than the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M432" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments.
Depending on the instrument noise scenario, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M433" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments detect plumes with more than 100 pixels with a success rate of only 12 % to 32 %, while for the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M434" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments the success rates are 68 % to 70 %.
Surprisingly, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M435" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument with low noise performs slightly worse than the high-noise instrument.
This is an artifact of the algorithm often detecting small plumes not related to emissions from Berlin in the case of a low-noise instrument.
The Sentinel-5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M436" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument detects 20 % of the plumes, thus only half the success rate of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M437" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument on the CO2M satellite.
The main reason for this low success rate is the spatial mismatch of the plumes due to the 2 h difference in overpass times.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T7" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><label>Table 7</label><caption><p id="d1e6696">Number of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M438" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes from Berlin and the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles of the number of detected <inline-formula><mml:math id="M439" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels (TP if PPV <inline-formula><mml:math id="M440" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.8 and cloud fraction <inline-formula><mml:math id="M441" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %) for a constellation of six CO2M satellites or one Sentinel-5 satellite. The maximum number of detectable plumes would be 50, corresponding to all potentially useful plumes with at least 100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M442" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels with values of the tracer <inline-formula><mml:math id="M443" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>X</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">BER</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> above a threshold of 0.05 ppm.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="6">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right" colsep="1"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Instrument scenario</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col2" nameend="col3" align="center" colsep="1">Plumes with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M444" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">100</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M445" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels </oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col4" nameend="col6" align="center">Plume size at percentile </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">number</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">percentage (%)</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">5th</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">50th</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">95th</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M446" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">16 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M447" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">32 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M448" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">323</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M449" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> medium noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M450" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">20 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M451" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">261</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M452" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M453" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">12 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M454" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">7</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">181</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M455" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">34 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M456" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">68 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M457" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">52</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">294</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">600</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M458" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M459" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">70 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M460" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">50</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">279</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">527</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M461" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> Sentinel-5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M462" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">20 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M463" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">140</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">396</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F11" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{11}?><label>Figure 11</label><caption><p id="d1e7119">Number of detected plumes with at least 100 pixels (TP <inline-formula><mml:math id="M464" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 100 and PPV <inline-formula><mml:math id="M465" display="inline"><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.80) for one to six satellites with the <bold>(a)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M466" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low-noise and <bold>(b)</bold> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M467" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high-noise scenario. Error bars were estimated from all available satellites with different Equator starting longitudes.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f11.png"/>

          </fig>

      <p id="d1e7171">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F11"/> shows the number of plumes per month with at least 100 detected pixels for different constellations between one and six satellites for the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M468" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low-noise and the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M469" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high-noise scenario.
The number of plume detections per month is small and therefore highly sensitive to the specific orbit configuration.
For example, two satellites seem to detect more plumes than three, but this result is caused by an unfavorable orbit for observing Berlin for the constellation with three satellites and unfavorable cloud cover as  already discussed earlier.
The standard deviation was estimated from the number of detectable plumes using satellites with different starting longitudes (i.e., east–west displacements of all orbits).
The figure shows that the number of observed plumes generally increases with the number of satellites as expected, but statistical noise can mask the increase from one constellation to the next.
The figure confirms the much lower success rates of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M470" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments as compared to the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M471" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments as expected from the computed signal-to-noise ratios.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3.SSS3">
  <label>3.3.3</label><title>Detection of plumes from power stations</title>
      <p id="d1e7229">There are six major power plants in the model domain: Jänschwalde, Boxberg, Schwarze Pumpe, Lippendorf, Turów and Pątnów.
Because no model tracer was defined for individual power plants but instead only for the sum of all of them, the true plume of an individual power plant is not known.
Therefore, we applied a visual inspection to identify those plume detections which erroneously included neighboring plumes.
Furthermore, we limit the analysis to Jänschwalde.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T8" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{8}?><label>Table 8</label><caption><p id="d1e7235">Number of plumes detected for Jänschwalde with six satellites. The number of plumes are provided for plumes with at least 10 detected <inline-formula><mml:math id="M472" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> or <inline-formula><mml:math id="M473" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels and in addition with at least 10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M474" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels (cloud cover <inline-formula><mml:math id="M475" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %). In both cases, plumes were included where neighboring plumes were detected in addition to Jänschwalde, i.e., detection with a large number of false positives (e.g., Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F13"/>c). These plumes are also shown separately. The classification uncertainty is about <inline-formula><mml:math id="M476" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes. The neighborhood size was set to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M477" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="4">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Instrument</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col2" nameend="col4" align="center">Number of plumes with </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">scenario</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M478" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> detected pixels</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M479" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>≥</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M480" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">large number of false positives</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M481" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">44</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">7</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M482" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> medium noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">40</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">6</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M483" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">41</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">40</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">4</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M484" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> low noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">90</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">68</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">38</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M485" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> high noise</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">91</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">68</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">34</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e7507">As an example, Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/> shows the successful detection of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M486" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume of Jänschwalde on 2 November 2015 by different instruments.
Since <inline-formula><mml:math id="M487" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions of Jänschwalde are high with 33.3 Mt <inline-formula><mml:math id="M488" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M489" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M490" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signal is very strong and can be detected well even with a high-noise instrument (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M491" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm).
With low noise (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M492" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm) the weaker plumes of Schwarze Pumpe and Boxberg are visible as well.
The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M493" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument detects the four plumes in the region well. On this day also the Sentinel-5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M494" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument successfully detects the plume of Jänschwalde and other point sources.
Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F13"/> presents a second, more challenging example for 17 February 2015.
The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M495" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument successfully detects the plume with 0.5 ppm uncertainty, but with 1.0 ppm uncertainty, the number of detected pixels is likely too small to be useful for emission estimation.
The reason for the low number of detected pixels in this case is the strong horizontal gradient in the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M496" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> background.
The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M497" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument detects the plume, but because the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M498" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume of Jänschwalde overlaps with neighboring plumes, these plumes are erroneously assigned to Jänschwalde as well.
At the coarser resolution of Sentinel-5 the plumes of the<?pagebreak page6711?> individual power plants can hardly be separated and, moreover, the time difference of 2 h results in a plume location that is shifted with respect to the plume seen by the CO2M satellite.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F12" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{12}?><label>Figure 12</label><caption><p id="d1e7677">Example of plume detection for the Jänschwalde power plant on 2 November 2015 using <bold>(a, b)</bold> the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M499" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M500" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 0.5 and 1.0 ppm, <bold>(c)</bold> the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M501" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument with the high-noise scenario and <bold>(d)</bold> the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M502" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument on Sentinel-5.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f12.png"/>

          </fig>

      <p id="d1e7743">Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T8"/> summarizes the results of the plume detection for Jänschwalde under the different instrument scenarios.
It shows the number of detected plumes with at least 10 pixels and, in addition, the number of plumes with at least 10 valid <inline-formula><mml:math id="M503" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels (cloud cover <inline-formula><mml:math id="M504" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> %).
Note that, in the case of the much narrower plumes from power plants, fewer pixels are required to form a useful plume.
We classified detections that include large parts of the background as failed but still counted detections that include neighboring plumes as successful (e.g., Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F13"/>c) because they successfully identified the location of the plume.
Since the classification is not always unambiguous, we assigned an uncertainty of about <inline-formula><mml:math id="M505" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes at
most.</p>
      <p id="d1e7781">In the year 2015, the number of detectable plumes with more than 10 pixels for a constellation of six satellites was between 40 and 45 for a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M506" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M507" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 0.5, 0.7 and 1.0 ppm.
At the same time, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M508" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument detected about 90 plumes for the low- and high-noise scenario.
When only plumes with more than 10 cloud-free <inline-formula><mml:math id="M509" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations were considered, the number was reduced to about 70 plumes.
For a smaller number of satellites, the number of detectable plumes would be correspondingly smaller.
The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M510" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument detects more plumes because of its lower sensitivity to clouds, which makes it possible to trace the plume<?pagebreak page6712?> to the source even for partly cloudy scenes.
On the other hand, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M511" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument often detects overlapping plumes (e.g., Boxberg and Schwarze Pumpe) because the instrument is much more sensitive to small signals further away from the origin than the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M512" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument.
The mean plume size was about 100 pixels for the low-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M513" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument. The plumes detected with the high-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M514" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument were about half the size.
The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M515" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments detected a similar number of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M516" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels to the low-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M517" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument, but when all detected pixels are counted the number of pixels doubles.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F13" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{13}?><label>Figure 13</label><caption><p id="d1e7923">Example of plume detection for Jänschwalde power plant on 17 February 2015 using <bold>(a, b)</bold> the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M518" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M519" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of 0.5 and 1.0 ppm, <bold>(c)</bold> the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M520" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument with the high-noise scenario and <bold>(d)</bold> the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M521" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument on Sentinel-5.</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/12/6695/2019/amt-12-6695-2019-f13.png"/>

          </fig>

</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Discussion</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS1">
  <label>4.1</label><title>Comparison with previous studies</title>
      <?pagebreak page6713?><p id="d1e8006">In this study we investigated whether and how frequently the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M522" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume
of Berlin and power stations can be detected by different constellations of satellites
using either <inline-formula><mml:math id="M523" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations alone or in combination with observations
of the coemitted trace gases CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M524" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. To address the question,
high-resolution <inline-formula><mml:math id="M525" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M526" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fields were simulated with the
COSMO-GHG model for the year 2015 and used to generate synthetic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M527" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M528" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> satellite observations for Sentinel-5 and a constellation of
CO2M satellites.
Similar OSSEs studies were conducted by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.51"/> and
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="text.52"/> for Berlin and Paris, respectively, as part of the LOGOFLUX
study <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx5" id="paren.53"/>. However, their simulations did not include <inline-formula><mml:math id="M529" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
and CO fields. A fundamental difference of our study compared to previous studies is the realistic, i.e., not as a random noise, account for transport model errors in the present study, where the location of the plume is not taken from the model but detected in the satellite image using either <inline-formula><mml:math id="M530" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> or <inline-formula><mml:math id="M531" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations. For this reason, the focus of this paper is on the detectability of the plume, while <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.54"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="text.55"/> focused on the inversion, which we will describe in a follow-up publication.</p>
      <p id="d1e8136"><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.56"/> simulated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M532" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fields with the WRF-GHG model with 10 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M533" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 10 km spatial resolution for the year 2008.
The resolution was relatively low compared to the 1.1 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M534" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1.1 km resolution used in our study.
They used <inline-formula><mml:math id="M535" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions from the EDGAR inventory (version 4.1), which are more than twice as high as the emissions reported in the inventory of the city of Berlin as mentioned earlier.
A consequence of the unrealistic high emissions is higher <inline-formula><mml:math id="M536" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signals (0.80–1.35 ppm) for Berlin than in our study (0.16–1.03 ppm; see Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T5"/>).
Note that the signal strength also depends on the spatial resolution, but our <inline-formula><mml:math id="M537" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signals were computed for a local mean (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M538" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">s</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">37</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, i.e., 148 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M539" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> spatial resolution) that is comparable to the model resolution used by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.57"/>.
For Paris, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="text.58"/> conducted simulations with the CHIMERE atmospheric transport model with 2 km spatial resolution. <inline-formula><mml:math id="M540" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions for the greater urban area were 40–50 Mt <inline-formula><mml:math id="M541" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M542" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, which resulted in a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M543" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> signal of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M544" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm, quite consistent with the plume signals reported here.</p>
      <p id="d1e8288">For Berlin, we estimated that 3 to 13 potentially useful <inline-formula><mml:math id="M545" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes (defined as plumes with at least 100 cloud-free pixels above a threshold of 0.05 ppm) would be observable, but not necessarily detectable, during 1 year by a single CO2M satellite with a 250 km wide swath.
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.59"/> identified 41 potentially useful orbits for estimating emissions with a 500 km wide swath.
Although a direct comparison of these two numbers is difficult because of the different swath widths and the different definitions of “usefulness”, we can still conclude that our study identified significantly fewer plumes than <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.60"/> even after halving their number to account for their wider swath.</p>
      <?pagebreak page6714?><p id="d1e8308">Clouds have a strong impact on the number of cloud-free observations. A major difference between <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.61"/> and our study is the different approaches for masking cloudy observations.
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.62"/> used the MODIS cloud mask product (MOD35_L2) while we used cloud masks derived from cloud fractions simulated with the COSMO-GHG model.
To compare these two approaches, we computed the number of cloud-free pixels using the MODIS cloud mask product (MOD35_L2), the MODIS cloud product (MOD06_L2) and COSMO-GHG simulations.
The COSMO-GHG cloud fractions were spatially averaged over the MODIS pixels.
The comparison shows that monthly fractions of cloud-free pixels agree well between masks computed from COSMO-GHG and MODIS cloud fractions for both a 1 % and 30 % cloud fraction, while the cloud-free pixels based on the MODIS cloud mask product are about twice as high (Fig. S1 in the Supplement).
The larger fraction of cloud-free observations obtained from the MODIS cloud mask product is also consistent with a validation study showing that the product is not very sensitive to optically thin clouds <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx1" id="paren.63"/>.
The differences likely explain the different number of potentially useful orbits between <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.64"/> and our study.
It also suggests that <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.65"/> overestimate the number of potentially useful orbits while our results are likely more accurate.</p>
      <p id="d1e8327">Further differences are to be expected because small plumes with less than 100 pixels were excluded in our case and because of different meteorology, especially cloud cover and wind speed, for the different simulation periods. In addition, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="text.66"/> used higher emissions and did not consider vertical profiles of emissions, which results in stronger and correspondingly larger plumes, which are less likely to be fully covered by clouds <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx11" id="paren.67"/>.</p>
      <p id="d1e8336">Since the number of useful plumes  observable by a satellite critically depends on its orbit (with one or two overpasses over Berlin per 11 d repeat cycle), the number of useful plumes per satellite may easily be overestimated if only an optimal orbit is considered.
Comparing different Equator starting longitudes as applied in this study reduces the sensitivity to a specific orbit selection.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS2">
  <label>4.2</label><?xmltex \opttitle{Benefits of CO and {$\protect\chem{NO_{{2}}}$} measurements}?><title>Benefits of CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M546" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> measurements</title>
      <p id="d1e8359">Out of 50 potentially useful plumes, many plumes were too weak to be easily seen by the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M547" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument.
Plumes of Berlin with more than 100 detectable pixels could only be detected in about 12 % of cloud-free cases with a high-noise instrument (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M548" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm) and about 32 % with a low-noise instrument (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M549" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm).
The success rate of 32 % for an imperfect but still precise instrument (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M550" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm) would only allow for two to three favorable plume observations per year and satellite.
These numbers illustrate the challenge and call for a larger constellation or a wider swath to increase the opportunities for plume detection and emission quantification, and for a <inline-formula><mml:math id="M551" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument with as low noise as possible.</p>
      <p id="d1e8438">Adding an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M552" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument greatly enhanced the opportunities for detecting the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M553" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes (68 %–70 % of cloud-free cases), since the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M554" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes largely overlap with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M555" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes and since the signal-to-noise ratio is better for the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M556" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument.
Furthermore, variability in the background is less important than for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M557" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M558" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations are less sensitive to clouds.
Nevertheless, the number of detectable plumes with an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M559" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument remained small with five to six per satellite and year.
A CO instrument with specifications similar to the CO instrument on Sentinel-5 had a smaller signal-to-noise ratio than the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M560" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument.
Such an instrument would add little useful information over a developed region like Germany where combustion processes are well controlled and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M561" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mo>:</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission ratios are correspondingly small.
The question of whether CO signals would be sufficiently high in other regions of the globe was outside the scope of this study.</p>
      <p id="d1e8556">The Sentinel-5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M562" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument is well suited to detect the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M563" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume of Berlin. However, the different overpass times of the CO2M satellite (11:30 local time) and Sentinel-5 (09:30 local time) frequently resulted in a significant spatial mismatch between the plumes, which reduced the number of matching plumes to 20 % of the cloud-free cases.
This is similar to the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M564" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument with medium noise but 3 to 4 times
lower than in the case of an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M565" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument placed directly on the CO2M satellite.</p>
      <p id="d1e8604">The detection of plumes from strong point sources like the Jänschwalde power plant was easier than the detection of city plumes because point sources tend to have stronger and more confined <inline-formula><mml:math id="M566" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes for the same amount of emitted <inline-formula><mml:math id="M567" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.
In addition, the number of pixels required to map out such a plume was smaller, with only 10 detectable pixels being typically sufficient for identifying the main part of the plume.
With a constellation of six satellites, about 40–45 plumes from Jänschwalde (33.3 Mt <inline-formula><mml:math id="M568" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M569" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions) with more than 10 detectable pixels could be observed per year even with a high-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M570" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument.
This corresponds to six to eight plumes per satellite and year, which is significantly better than for Berlin with the best instrument.
The number of detectable plumes further increased by about 50 % with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M571" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument (about 70 plumes).
Smaller point sources with emissions of about 10 Mt <inline-formula><mml:math id="M572" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M573" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> (e.g., Lippendorf, Schwarze Pumpe and Turow) were sometimes detectable with a low-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M574" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument but could also be detected with an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M575" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument.</p>
      <p id="d1e8720">Our study did not include systematic errors in the satellite observations from aerosols, clouds and surface reflectance, which can result in spatial patterns resembling plume structures and therefore complicate plume detection.
We therefore might overestimate the number of detectable plumes. Although systematic errors affect all satellite products, the effect would be more severe for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M576" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> than for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M577" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> due to the much smaller signal-to-noise ratios.
How much aerosols enhance measurement uncertainties and correspondingly reduce the ability to detect plumes cannot be quantified here<?pagebreak page6715?> but will be studied, for example, in a study on the use of aerosol information for estimating fossil fuel <inline-formula><mml:math id="M578" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions (AEROCARB) performed by a consortium led by SRON.</p>
      <p id="d1e8756">Our study could not simulate detailed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M579" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>X</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemistry due to the high computational costs. We can therefore not rule out a larger mismatch between some <inline-formula><mml:math id="M580" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M581" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes than simulated here, for example, because of different <inline-formula><mml:math id="M582" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decay rates at different altitudes. However, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx38" id="text.68"/> found no obvious mismatch when comparing colocated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M583" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M584" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes from OCO-2 and TROPOMI observations. A follow-up study for quantifying the effect of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M585" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> chemistry would certainly be desirable.</p>
      <p id="d1e8840">Since the shape and extent of the plume can be imaged more accurately with an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M586" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument on the CO2M satellites, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M587" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument can also be used to assess and correct transport simulations and improve these simulations through data assimilation.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4.SS3">
  <label>4.3</label><title>Limitations of the current plume detection algorithm</title>
      <p id="d1e8873">The main objective of this study was to compare the basic detectability of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M588" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M589" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M590" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and CO observations. Our plume detection algorithm was able to detect weak signals well below the single sounding precision but tended to fail when the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M591" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> or <inline-formula><mml:math id="M592" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> field was complex, for example when several plumes from adjacent sources overlapped or when the background had a spatial gradient.
These cases can be easily identified by a trained human observer as done in this study, but will have to be automatized for application at the global scale, for example by applying machine-learning methods.</p>
      <p id="d1e8931">In our study area, the attribution of detected enhancements to sources was relatively simple because the locations of the sources were known and plumes were rarely overlapping with plumes from other sources. Source attribution can be more challenging when source locations are not precisely known or when several sources are close to each other. For such cases, the algorithm will have to be extended to be operationally applicable.</p>
      <p id="d1e8934">The algorithm assumed accurate knowledge of the mean and variance of the background, which were estimated directly from a simulated background tracer.
It is possible that due to this optimistic assumption the number of detectable plumes was overestimated. On the other hand, mean and variance were computed in a rather simple way from a large window centered on the source (200 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M593" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 200 km for Berlin).
In the present algorithm, spatial gradients in the background field contributed to the variance of the background and thus reduced the ability for plume detection.
However, such gradients, if sufficiently smooth, could potentially be accounted for in a more advanced algorithm through spatial interpolation of the background surrounding the plume.</p>
      <p id="d1e8944">When applied to real satellite observations the background and its variance could either be taken from a model or estimated directly from the satellite observations.
Although atmospheric transport models have large uncertainties at the level of individual plumes, they could provide reasonable estimates of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M594" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M595" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> background.
Likely the best option is to derive the background directly from the satellite data, which requires further development of the plume detection algorithm presented here.
An improved algorithm could start with an a priori estimate of plume location and background and would then be updated iteratively to improve both plume location and background.
A model could be used here to determine a suitable a priori plume location and background.
An improved version of the algorithm presented in this paper has the potential for increasing the number of detectable plumes per satellite as well as the number of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M596" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> pixels per plume.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>5</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e8990">In this paper the potential for detecting <inline-formula><mml:math id="M597" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes of the city of Berlin and neighboring power stations was investigated for the Copernicus anthropogenic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M598" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> monitoring mission (CO2M), which is a proposed constellation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M599" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> satellites of the European Copernicus program.
Since the interference of biospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M600" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> makes the identification of weak anthropogenic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M601" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes challenging, plumes were detected either from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M602" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> observations or from observations of the coemitted
trace gases CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M603" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.
The study used high-resolution atmospheric transport simulations to create realistic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M604" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M605" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fields at 1 km<inline-formula><mml:math id="M606" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1 km horizontal resolution to generate synthetic observations of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M607" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">XCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, CO and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M608" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for constellations of up to six CO2M satellites and one Sentinel-5 satellite.</p>
      <p id="d1e9123">For the city of Berlin about 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M609" display="inline"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 5 potentially useful <inline-formula><mml:math id="M610" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes were identified for the year 2015 for a constellation of six satellites, i.e., about eight plumes could be observed by a single CO2M satellite per year.
This number is somewhat smaller than reported in earlier studies <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx5 bib1.bibx34" id="paren.69"/>,  mainly because masking cloudy pixels based on the simulated cloud fields leads to less cloud-free observations than using the MODIS cloud mask product.
Many of these 50 potentially observable plumes were too weak to be easily detectable by the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M611" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument.
Plumes with more than 100 detectable pixels could only be identified in 12 % and 32 % of cloud-free cases with a high-noise (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M612" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1.0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm) and low-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M613" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M614" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">VEG</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">50</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> ppm), respectively.
A CO instrument with the uncertainty scenario used in this study had a signal-to-noise ratio that was lower than for the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M615" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument and was therefore not suitable for detecting <inline-formula><mml:math id="M616" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes.
On the other hand, adding an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M617" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument significantly increased the number of detectable plumes (68 %–70 % of cloud-free cases) because <inline-formula><mml:math id="M618" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M619" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes generally overlapped well.
The better performance of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M620" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument was partly due to the higher signal-to-noise ratio and<?pagebreak page6716?> partly due to the lower sensitivity to clouds.
The Sentinel-5 instrument was also well suited to detect the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M621" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes, but the different overpass times of the CO2M satellites (11:30 local time) and Sentinel-5 (09:30 local time) often resulted in a large spatial mismatch.</p>
      <p id="d1e9284">Strong point sources like the Jänschwalde power plant could be detected more easily with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M622" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument (40–45 plumes) because the plumes were spatially more confined and the signals were stronger.
The number of detectable plumes increased further with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M623" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument by about 50 % (about 70 plumes).
The Sentinel-5 instrument could also detect the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M624" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plume but could not always distinguish the plumes from neighboring power plants due to the lower spatial resolution.
In addition, the spatial mismatch between CO2M and Sentinel-5 was large due to the 2 h time difference
between overpasses.
Smaller point sources with emissions of about 10 Mt <inline-formula><mml:math id="M625" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> yr<inline-formula><mml:math id="M626" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> were only detectable with a low-noise <inline-formula><mml:math id="M627" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
instrument but were in most cases readily detectable with an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M628" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument.</p>
      <p id="d1e9366">In this study, power plant plumes could be detected even with an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M629" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument with high noise. The power plants were equipped with wet scrubber technology for reducing <inline-formula><mml:math id="M630" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M631" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions but not with the latest available technology.
Future updates using selective catalytic or noncatalytic reduction have the potential to further reduce <inline-formula><mml:math id="M632" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
emissions by 20 % to 50 % <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx27" id="paren.70"/>, which would place higher requirements on the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M633" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument and would make the low-noise scenario more beneficial.</p>
      <p id="d1e9429">This study demonstrates the huge benefit of adding an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M634" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument to a constellation of CO2M satellites for detecting city plumes and weaker point sources.
The major advantages of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M635" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instruments are the higher signal-to-noise ratio and the lower sensitivity to clouds.
Therefore, adding an <inline-formula><mml:math id="M636" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrument is highly recommended and the low-noise instrument is preferable for detecting also weaker and cleaner plumes in terms of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M637" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions.
Furthermore, development of an advanced plume detection algorithm that can detect <inline-formula><mml:math id="M638" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> plumes reliably will be essential for the application on an operational satellite.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="codedataavailability"><title>Code and data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e9491">Column-averaged dry air mole fractions of all simulated tracers are available both as 2-D fields and as synthetic satellite products through ESA.
The total three-dimensional model output amounts to 7.5 TB and is archived on Empa servers.
Selected fields or time periods can be made available upon request.
The TNO/MACC-3 inventory can be requested for research purposes from Hugo Denier van der Gon (TNO, the Netherlands). The TNO-CAMS <inline-formula><mml:math id="M639" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission inventory is publicly available at <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.112889" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5281/zenodo.112889</ext-link> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx25" id="paren.71"/>.
The emissions inventory of Berlin was kindly provided by Andreas Kerschbaumer, Senatsverwaltung Berlin, and is
available for research upon request.
The global <inline-formula><mml:math id="M640" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulation, which provided the lateral boundary conditions, was conducted in the framework of the European Earth observation program Copernicus and can be retrieved from ECMWF's MARS archive as experiment gvri, stream lwda, class rd.</p>
  </notes><app-group>
        <supplementary-material position="anchor"><p id="d1e9522">The supplement related to this article is available online at: <inline-supplementary-material xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-6695-2019-supplement" xlink:title="pdf">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-6695-2019-supplement</inline-supplementary-material>.</p></supplementary-material>
        </app-group><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e9531">GK conducted the simulations, generated the satellite observations, developed the plume detection algorithm and wrote the manuscript with input from all coauthors.
GB followed the project as external advisor and contributed critical input to the manuscript.
JM contributed the VPRM flux data required for the simulations.
VC ported the COSMO-GHG extension to GPUs.
YM and AL accompanied the study as ESA project and technical officers, respectively, and provided critical inputs and reviews during all phases of the project.
DB led the SMARTCARB project and contributed critical input to the manuscript.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e9537">The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e9543">This study was conducted in the context of the project SMARTCARB funded by the European Space Agency (ESA).
The views expressed here can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of ESA.
The work was supported by a grant from the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) under project ID d73.
We acknowledge the contributions of the Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) and ETH Zurich to the development of the GPU-accelerated version of COSMO.
We would like to thank Oliver Fuhrer (MeteoSwiss), who supported the porting of COSMO-GHG to GPUs and the setup of the model on the supercomputer at CSCS.
We would like to acknowledge Richard Engelen and Anna Agusti-Pannareda (ECMWF) as well as the European Earth Observation Program Copernicus and the EU project CHE for providing support and access to global <inline-formula><mml:math id="M641" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> model simulation fields.
The TNO/MACC-3 emissions inventory and temporal emission profiles were kindly provided by Hugo Denier van der Gon (TNO, the Netherlands).
We would also like to thank Jochen Landgraf and Joost aan de Brugh (SRON) for providing the orbit simulator.
We are also very grateful to Andreas Kerschbaumer, Senatsverwaltung Berlin, for providing the emission inventory of Berlin and additional material as well as for being available for discussions on its proper usage.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d1e9559">This research has been supported by the European Space Agency (contract no. 4000119599/16/NL/FF/mg).</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e9565">This paper was edited by Ilse Aben and reviewed by two anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
    <title>References</title>

      <ref id="bib1.bibx1"><label>Ackerman et al.(2008)</label><?label Ackerman2008?><mixed-citation>Ackerman, S., Holz, R., Frey, R., Eloranta, E., Maddux, B., and McGill, M.:
Cloud detection with MODIS. Part II: validation, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 25, 1073–1086, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JTECHA1053.1" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1175/2007JTECHA1053.1</ext-link>, 2008.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx2"><label>Ackerman et al.(2017).</label><?label MOD35L2?><mixed-citation>Ackerman, S., Menzel, P., Frey R., and Baum, B.:  MODIS Atmosphere L2 Cloud Mask
Product. NASA MODIS Adaptive Processing System, Goddard Space Flight Center,
<ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD35_L2.061" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5067/MODIS/MYD35_L2.061</ext-link>, 2017.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx3"><?xmltex \def\ref@label{{Agust\'{\i}-Panareda et~al.(2014)}}?><label>Agustí-Panareda et al.(2014)</label><?label Augusti-Panareda2014?><mixed-citation>Agustí-Panareda, A., Massart, S., Chevallier, F., Boussetta, S., Balsamo, G., Beljaars, A., Ciais, P., Deutscher, N. M., Engelen, R., Jones, L., Kivi, R., Paris, J.-D., Peuch, V.-H., Sherlock, V., Vermeulen, A. T., Wennberg, P. O., and Wunch, D.: Forecasting global atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M642" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11959–11983, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014</ext-link>, 2014.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx4"><label>AVISO GmbH and IE Leipzig(2016)</label><?label Berlin2016?><mixed-citation>AVISO GmbH and IE Leipzig: Erstellung der Berliner Emissionskataster
Industrie, Gebäudeheizung, sonstiger Verkehr, Kleingewerbe, sonstige
Quellen, Baustellen – Schlussbericht Juni 2016, Tech. rep.,
available at: <uri>https://www.berlin.de/senuvk/umwelt/luftqualitaet/de/emissionen/download/Endbericht_Emissionkataster_2015.pdf</uri>
(last access: 25 November 2019),
2016.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx5"><label>Bacour et al.(2015)</label><?label Bacour2015?><mixed-citation>
Bacour, C., Boesch, H., Bovensmann, H., Breon, F.-M., Broquet, G., Buchwitz,
M., Houweling, S., Klonecki, A., Krings, T., and Santaren, D.: LOGOFLUX 2 –
CarbonSat Earth Explorer 8 Candidate Mission – Inverse Modelling and Mission
Performance Study, Final report of ESA study contract
n°4000109818/14/NL/FF/lf, project led by NOVELTIS (France), Report, 2015.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx6"><label>Baldauf et al.(2011)</label><?label Baldauf2011?><mixed-citation>Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Forstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and
Reinhardt, T.: Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with
the COSMO model: description and sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139,
3887–3905, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1175/Mwr-D-10-05013.1" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1175/Mwr-D-10-05013.1</ext-link>, 2011.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx7"><label>Boersma et al.(2004)</label><?label Boersma2004?><mixed-citation>Boersma, K. F., Eskes, H. J., and Brinksma, E. J.: Error analysis for
tropospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M643" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> retrieval from space, J. Geophys. Res., 109,
D04311, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003962" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1029/2003JD003962</ext-link>, 2004.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx8"><label>Boersma et al.(2011)</label><?label Boersma2011?><mixed-citation>Boersma, K. F., Eskes, H. J., Dirksen, R. J., van der A, R. J., Veefkind, J. P., Stammes, P., Huijnen, V., Kleipool, Q. L., Sneep, M., Claas, J., Leitão, J., Richter, A., Zhou, Y., and Brunner, D.: An improved tropospheric NO2 column retrieval algorithm for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 4, 1905–1928, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-4-1905-2011" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-4-1905-2011</ext-link>, 2011.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx9"><label>Bovensmann et al.(2010)</label><?label Bovensmann2010?><mixed-citation>Bovensmann, H., Buchwitz, M., Burrows, J. P., Reuter, M., Krings, T., Gerilowski, K., Schneising, O., Heymann, J., Tretner, A., and Erzinger, J.: A remote sensing technique for global monitoring of power plant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M644" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions from space and related applications, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 3, 781–811, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-3-781-2010" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-3-781-2010</ext-link>, 2010.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx10"><label>Broquet et al.(2018)</label><?label Broquet2018?><mixed-citation>Broquet, G., Bréon, F.-M., Renault, E., Buchwitz, M., Reuter, M., Bovensmann, H., Chevallier, F., Wu, L., and Ciais, P.: The potential of satellite spectro-imagery for monitoring <inline-formula><mml:math id="M645" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions from large cities, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 681–708, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-11-681-2018</ext-link>, 2018.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx11"><label>Brunner et al.(2019)</label><?label Brunner2019?><mixed-citation>Brunner, D., Kuhlmann, G., Marshall, J., Clément, V., Fuhrer, O., Broquet, G., Löscher, A., and Meijer, Y.: Accounting for the vertical distribution of emissions in atmospheric CO2 simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4541–4559, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4541-2019" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/acp-19-4541-2019</ext-link>, 2019.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx12"><label>Buchwitz et al.(2013)</label><?label Buchwitz2013?><mixed-citation>Buchwitz, M., Reuter, M., Bovensmann, H., Pillai, D., Heymann, J., Schneising, O., Rozanov, V., Krings, T., Burrows, J. P., Boesch, H., Gerbig, C., Meijer, Y., and Löscher, A.: Carbon Monitoring Satellite (CarbonSat): assessment of atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M646" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M647" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CH</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> retrieval errors by error parameterization, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 3477–3500, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3477-2013" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-6-3477-2013</ext-link>, 2013.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx13"><label>C40 cities(2018)</label><?label C40_2018?><mixed-citation>C40 cities: 27 C40 cities have peaked their greenhouse gas emissions,
available at:
<uri>https://c40-production-images.s3.amazonaws.com/other_uploads/images/1923_Peaking_emissions_Media_Pack_Extended_version.original.pdf?1536847923</uri>
(last access: 25 November 2019),
2018.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx14"><label>Chimot et al.(2013)</label><?label Chimot2013?><mixed-citation>
Chimot, J., Breon, F.-M., Prunet, P., Vinuesa, J.-F., Camy-Peyret, C., Broquet,
G., Chevallier, F., Renault, E., Houweling, S., Buchwitz, M., Bovensmann, H.,
Pillai, D., Reuter, M., Marshall, J., Brunner, D., Bergamaschi, P., Ciais,
P., and Klonecki, A.: LOGOFLUX – CarbonSat Earth Explorer 8 Candidate Mission
– Inverse Modelling and Mission Performance Study, Final report of ESA study
contract n°40010537/12/NL/CO, project led by NOVELTIS (France), Report,
2013.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx15"><label>Ciais et al.(2015)</label><?label Ciais2015?><mixed-citation>Ciais, P., Crisp, D., Gon, H. v. d., Engelen, R., Heimann, M.,
Janssens-Maenhout, G., Rayner, P., and Scholze, M.: Towards a European
Operational Observing System to Monitor Fossil <inline-formula><mml:math id="M648" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions – Final Report
from the expert group, European Commission, Copernicus Climate Change
Service, Report, 2015.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx16"><label>Crisp et al.(2017)</label><?label Crisp2017?><mixed-citation>Crisp, D., Pollock, H. R., Rosenberg, R., Chapsky, L., Lee, R. A. M., Oyafuso, F. A., Frankenberg, C., O'Dell, C. W., Bruegge, C. J., Doran, G. B., Eldering, A., Fisher, B. M., Fu, D., Gunson, M. R., Mandrake, L., Osterman, G. B., Schwandner, F. M., Sun, K., Taylor, T. E., Wennberg, P. O., and Wunch, D.: The on-orbit performance of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) instrument and its radiometrically calibrated products, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 59–81, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-59-2017" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-10-59-2017</ext-link>, 2017.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx17"><label>Deeter et al.(2017)</label><?label Deeter2017?><mixed-citation>Deeter, M. N., Edwards, D. P., Francis, G. L., Gille, J. C., Martínez-Alonso, S., Worden, H. M., and Sweeney, C.: A climate-scale satellite record for carbon monoxide: the MOPITT Version 7 product, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2533–2555, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2533-2017" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-10-2533-2017</ext-link>, 2017.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx18"><?xmltex \def\ref@label{{D\"{u}ring et~al.(2011)}}?><label>Düring et al.(2011)</label><?label During2011?><mixed-citation>Düring, I., Bächlin, W., Ketzel, M., Baum, A., Friedrich, U., and Wurzler,
S.: A new simplified <inline-formula><mml:math id="M649" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> conversion model under consideration of direct
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M650" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-emissions, Meteorol. Z., 20, 67–73,
<ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0491" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0491</ext-link>, 2011.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx19"><label>ESA(2015)</label><?label ESA2015?><mixed-citation>
ESA: Report for mission selection: CarbonSat, ESA SP-1330/1 (2 volume series),
Report, 2015.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx20"><label>Fioletov et al.(2015)</label><?label Fioletov2015?><mixed-citation>Fioletov, V. E., McLinden, C. A., Krotkov, N., and Li, C.: Lifetimes and
emissions of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M651" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">SO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from point sources estimated from OMI, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 42, 1969–1976, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063148" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1002/2015GL063148</ext-link>, 2015.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx21"><label>Flemming et al.(2015)</label><?label Flemming2015?><mixed-citation>Flemming, J., Huijnen, V., Arteta, J., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A., Blechschmidt, A.-M., Diamantakis, M., Engelen, R. J., Gaudel, A., Inness, A., Jones, L., Josse, B., Katragkou, E., Marecal, V., Peuch, V.-H., Richter, A., Schultz, M. G., Stein, O., and Tsikerdekis, A.: Tropospheric chemistry in the Integrated Forecasting System of ECMWF, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 975–1003, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-975-2015" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/gmd-8-975-2015</ext-link>, 2015.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx22"><label>Ingmann et al.(2012)</label><?label Ingmann2012?><mixed-citation>Ingmann, P., Veihelmann, B., Langen, J., Lamarre, D., Stark, H., and
Courrǵes-Lacoste, G. B.: Requirements for the GMES Atmosphere Service and
ESA's implementation concept: Sentinels-4/-5 and -5p, Remote Sens. Environ., 120,
58–69, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.01.023" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1016/j.rse.2012.01.023</ext-link>, 2012.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <?pagebreak page6718?><ref id="bib1.bibx23"><label>Krings et al.(2013)</label><?label Krings2013?><mixed-citation>Krings, T., Gerilowski, K., Buchwitz, M., Hartmann, J., Sachs, T., Erzinger, J., Burrows, J. P., and Bovensmann, H.: Quantification of methane emission rates from coal mine ventilation shafts using airborne remote sensing data, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 151–166, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-151-2013" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-6-151-2013</ext-link>, 2013.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx24"><label>Kuenen et al.(2014)</label><?label Kuenen2014?><mixed-citation>Kuenen, J. J. P., Visschedijk, A. J. H., Jozwicka, M., and Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.: TNO-MACC_II emission inventory; a multi-year (2003–2009) consistent high-resolution European emission inventory for air quality modelling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10963–10976, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10963-2014" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/acp-14-10963-2014</ext-link>, 2014.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx25"><label>Kuenen et al.(2017)</label><?label Kuenen2017?><mixed-citation>Kuenen, J. J. P., Visschedijk, A. J. H., Denier van der Gon, H. A. C., Jonkers, S., and Janssens-Maenhout, G.: TNO-CAMS European <inline-formula><mml:math id="M652" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions 2000–2014 v1, TNO, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.112889" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5281/zenodo.112889</ext-link>, 2017.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx26"><label>Kuhlmann et al.(2019)</label><?label Smartcarb2019?><mixed-citation>Kuhlmann, G., Clément, V., Marschall, J., Fuhrer, O., Broquet, G.,
Schnadt-Poberaj, C., Löscher, A., Meijer, Y., and Brunner, D.: SMARTCARB –
Use of Satellite Measurements of Auxiliary Reactive Trace Gases for Fossil
Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emission Estimation, Final report of ESA study contract
n°4000119599/16/NL/FF/mg, Tech. rep., Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for
Materials Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland,
available at: <uri>https://www.empa.ch/documents/56101/617885/FR_Smartcarb_final_Jan2019.pdf</uri>
(last access: 25 November 2019),
2019.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx27"><label>Lecomte et al.(2017)</label><?label Lecomte2017?><mixed-citation>
Lecomte, T., de la Fuente, J. F. F., Neuwahl, F., Canova, M., Pinasseau, A.,
Jankov, I., Brinkmann, T., Roudier, S., and Sancho, L. D.: Best Available
Techniques (BAT) Reference Document for Large Combustion Plants – Industrial
Emissions Directive 2010/75/EU Integrated Pollution Prevention and control,
Tech. rep., 2017.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx28"><label>Liu et al.(2017)</label><?label Liu2017?><mixed-citation>Liu, Y., Gruber, N., and Brunner, D.: Spatiotemporal patterns of the fossil-fuel CO2 signal in central Europe: results from a high-resolution atmospheric transport model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14145–14169, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14145-2017" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/acp-17-14145-2017</ext-link>, 2017.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx29"><label>Mahadevan et al.(2008)</label><?label Mahadevan2008?><mixed-citation>Mahadevan, P., Wofsy, S. C., Matross, D. M., Xiao, X., Dunn, A. L., Lin, J. C.,
Gerbig, C., Munger, J. W., Chow, V. Y., and Gottlieb, E. W.: A
satellite-based biosphere parameterization for net ecosystem <inline-formula><mml:math id="M653" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> exchange:
Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM), Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, 2, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002735" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1029/2006GB002735</ext-link>, 2008.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx30"><label>MOPITT Algorithm Development Team(2017)</label><?label MOPITTv72017?><mixed-citation>MOPITT Algorithm Development Team: Measurements of Pollution in the
Troposphere (MOPITT) Version 7 Product User's Guide,
available at: <uri>https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/mopitt/v7_users_guide_201707.pdf</uri>
(last access: 25 November 2019),
2017.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx31"><label>Nassar et al.(2017)</label><?label Nassar2017?><mixed-citation>Nassar, R., Hill, T. G., McLinden, C. A., Wunch, D., Jones, D. B. A., and
Crisp, D.: Quantifying <inline-formula><mml:math id="M654" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> Emissions From Individual Power Plants From
Space, Geophys. Res., 44, 10045–10053,
<ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074702" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1002/2017GL074702</ext-link>, 2017.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx32"><label>O'Dell et al.(2012)</label><?label ODell2012?><mixed-citation>O'Dell, C. W., Connor, B., Bösch, H., O'Brien, D., Frankenberg, C., Castano, R., Christi, M., Eldering, D., Fisher, B., Gunson, M., McDuffie, J., Miller, C. E., Natraj, V., Oyafuso, F., Polonsky, I., Smyth, M., Taylor, T., Toon, G. C., Wennberg, P. O., and Wunch, D.: The ACOS CO2 retrieval algorithm – Part 1: Description and validation against synthetic observations, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 5, 99–121, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-5-99-2012" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-5-99-2012</ext-link>, 2012.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx33"><label>Oney et al.(2015)</label><?label Oney2015?><mixed-citation>Oney, B., Henne, S., Gruber, N., Leuenberger, M., Bamberger, I., Eugster, W., and Brunner, D.: The CarboCount CH sites: characterization of a dense greenhouse gas observation network, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11147–11164, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11147-2015" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/acp-15-11147-2015</ext-link>, 2015.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx34"><label>Pillai et al.(2016)</label><?label Pillai2016?><mixed-citation>Pillai, D., Buchwitz, M., Gerbig, C., Koch, T., Reuter, M., Bovensmann, H., Marshall, J., and Burrows, J. P.: Tracking city <inline-formula><mml:math id="M655" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions from space using a high-resolution inverse modelling approach: a case study for Berlin, Germany, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9591–9610, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9591-2016" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/acp-16-9591-2016</ext-link>, 2016.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx35"><label>Pinty et al.(2018)</label><?label Pinty2018?><mixed-citation>Pinty, B., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Dowell, M., Zunker, H., Brunhe, T., Ciais,
P., Dee, D., van der Gon, H. D., Dolman, H., Drinkwater, M., Engelen, R.,
Heimann, M., Holmlund, K., Husband, R., Kentarchos, A., Meijer, Y., Palmer,
P., and Scholz, M.: An Operational Anthropogenic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M656" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> Emissions Monitoring &amp;
Verification Support capacity – Baseline Requirements, Model Components and
Functional Architecture, Report, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.2760/39384" ext-link-type="DOI">10.2760/39384</ext-link>, 2018.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx36"><label>Platnick et al.(2017)</label><?label MOD06L2?><mixed-citation>Platnick, S., Ackerman, S., King, M., Wind, G., Meyer, K., Menzel, P., Frey,
R., Holz, R., Baum, B., and Yang, P.: MODIS atmosphere L2 cloud product
(06_L2), NASA MODIS Adaptive Processing System, Goddard Space Flight Center,
<ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD06_L2.061" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5067/MODIS/MYD06_L2.061</ext-link>, 2017.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx37"><label>Reuter et al.(2014)</label><?label Reuter2014?><mixed-citation>Reuter, M., Buchwitz, M., Hilboll, A., Richter, A., Schneising, O., Hilker, M.,
Heymann, J., Bovensmann, H., and Burrows, J.: Decreasing emissions of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M657" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
relative to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M658" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in East Asia inferred from satellite observations, Nat. Geosci,
7, 792–795, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2257" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1038/ngeo2257</ext-link>, 2014.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx38"><label>Reuter et al.(2019)</label><?label Reuter2019?><mixed-citation>Reuter, M., Buchwitz, M., Schneising, O., Krautwurst, S., O'Dell, C. W., Richter, A., Bovensmann, H., and Burrows, J. P.: Towards monitoring localized CO2 emissions from space: co-located regional <inline-formula><mml:math id="M659" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M660" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> enhancements observed by the OCO-2 and S5P satellites, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9371–9383, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9371-2019" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/acp-19-9371-2019</ext-link>, 2019.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx39"><label>Schaaf and Wang(2015)</label><?label Schaaf2015?><mixed-citation>Schaaf, C. and Wang, Z.: MCD43A3 MODIS/Terra+Aqua BRDF/Albedo Daily L3 Global –  500m V006 [Data set], NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC,
<ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD43A3.006" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5067/MODIS/MCD43A3.006</ext-link>, 2015.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx40"><label>Schaub et al.(2007)</label><?label Schaub2007?><mixed-citation>Schaub, D., Brunner, D., Boersma, K. F., Keller, J., Folini, D., Buchmann, B., Berresheim, H., and Staehelin, J.: SCIAMACHY tropospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M661" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> over Switzerland: estimates of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M662" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> lifetimes and impact of the complex Alpine topography on the retrieval, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5971–5987, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5971-2007" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/acp-7-5971-2007</ext-link>, 2007.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx41"><label>Sierk et al.(2019)</label><?label Sierk2019?><mixed-citation>Sierk, B., Bézy, J.-L., Löscher, A., and Meijer, Y.: The European <inline-formula><mml:math id="M663" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
Monitoring Mission: observing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from
space, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2535941" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1117/12.2535941</ext-link>, 2019.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx42"><label>Taylor et al.(2016)</label><?label Taylor2016?><mixed-citation>Taylor, T. E., O'Dell, C. W., Frankenberg, C., Partain, P. T., Cronk, H. Q., Savtchenko, A., Nelson, R. R., Rosenthal, E. J., Chang, A. Y., Fisher, B., Osterman, G. B., Pollock, R. H., Crisp, D., Eldering, A., and Gunson, M. R.: Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) cloud screening algorithms: validation against collocated MODIS and CALIOP data, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 973–989, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-973-2016" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-9-973-2016</ext-link>, 2016.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx43"><label>Ting(2010)</label><?label Ting2010?><mixed-citation>Ting, K. M.: Confusion Matrix,  209–209, Springer US, Boston, MA,
<ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30164-8_157" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1007/978-0-387-30164-8_157</ext-link>, 2010.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <?pagebreak page6719?><ref id="bib1.bibx44"><label>UNFCCC(2015)</label><?label UNFCCC2015?><mixed-citation>UNFCCC: Paris Agreement, FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev1, available at:
<uri>http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf</uri> (last access: 25 November 2019), 2015.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx45"><label>Varon et al.(2018)</label><?label Varon2018?><mixed-citation>Varon, D. J., Jacob, D. J., McKeever, J., Jervis, D., Durak, B. O. A., Xia, Y., and Huang, Y.: Quantifying methane point sources from fine-scale satellite observations of atmospheric methane plumes, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 5673–5686, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5673-2018" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-11-5673-2018</ext-link>, 2018.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx46"><label>Velazco et al.(2011)</label><?label Velazco2011?><mixed-citation>Velazco, V. A., Buchwitz, M., Bovensmann, H., Reuter, M., Schneising, O., Heymann, J., Krings, T., Gerilowski, K., and Burrows, J. P.: Towards space based verification of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M664" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions from strong localized sources: fossil fuel power plant emissions as seen by a CarbonSat constellation, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 4, 2809–2822, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-4-2809-2011" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5194/amt-4-2809-2011</ext-link>, 2011.
</mixed-citation></ref><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx47"><label>v. Storch and Zwiers(2003)</label><?label Storch2003?><mixed-citation>v. Storch, H. and Zwiers, F. W.: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research,
Cambride University Press, Cambridge, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612336" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1017/CBO9780511612336</ext-link>, 2003.</mixed-citation></ref>
      <ref id="bib1.bibx48"><label>Wenig et al.(2008)</label><?label Wenig2008?><mixed-citation>Wenig, M. O., Cede, A. M., Bucsela, E. J., Celarier, E. A., Boersma, K. F.,
Veefkind, J. P., Brinksma, E. J., Gleason, J. F., and Herman, J. R.:
Validation of OMI tropospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M665" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">NO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> column densities using direct-Sun mode
Brewer measurements at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,  J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16S45, <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008988" ext-link-type="DOI">10.1029/2007JD008988</ext-link>, 2008.</mixed-citation></ref>

  </ref-list></back>
    <!--<article-title-html>Detectability of CO<sub>2</sub> emission plumes of cities and power plants with the Copernicus Anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> Monitoring (CO2M) mission</article-title-html>
<abstract-html><p>High-resolution atmospheric transport simulations were used to investigate the potential for detecting carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) plumes of the city of Berlin and neighboring power stations with the Copernicus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Monitoring (CO2M) mission, which is a proposed constellation of CO<sub>2</sub> satellites with imaging capabilities.
The potential for detecting plumes was studied for satellite images of CO<sub>2</sub> alone or in combination with images of nitrogen dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>) and carbon monoxide (CO) to investigate the added value of measurements of other gases coemitted with CO<sub>2</sub> that have better signal-to-noise ratios.
The additional NO<sub>2</sub> and CO images were either generated for instruments on the same CO2M satellites (2&thinsp;km × &thinsp;2&thinsp;km resolution) or for the Sentinel-5 instrument (7.5&thinsp;km × &thinsp;7.5&thinsp;km) assumed to fly 2&thinsp;h earlier than CO2M.
Realistic CO<sub>2</sub>, CO and NO<sub><i>X</i></sub>( = NO + NO<sub>2</sub>) fields were simulated at 1&thinsp;km × &thinsp;1&thinsp;km horizontal resolution with the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling model extended with a module for the simulation of greenhouse gases (COSMO-GHG) for the year 2015, and they were used as input for an orbit simulator to generate synthetic observations of columns of CO<sub>2</sub>, CO and NO<sub>2</sub> for constellations of up to six satellites.
A simple plume detection algorithm was applied to detect coherent structures in the images of CO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>2</sub> or CO against instrument noise and variability in background levels.
Although six satellites with an assumed swath of 250&thinsp;km were sufficient to overpass Berlin on a daily basis, only about 50 out of 365 plumes per year could be observed in conditions suitable for emission estimation due to frequent cloud cover.
With the CO<sub>2</sub> instrument only 6 and 16 of these 50 plumes could be detected assuming a high-noise (<i>σ</i><sub>VEG50</sub> = 1.0&thinsp;ppm) and low-noise (<i>σ</i><sub>VEG50</sub> = 0.5&thinsp;ppm) scenario, respectively,
because the CO<sub>2</sub> signals were often too weak.
A CO instrument with specifications similar to the Sentinel-5 mission performed worse than the CO<sub>2</sub> instrument, while the number of detectable plumes could be significantly increased to about 35 plumes with an NO<sub>2</sub> instrument.
CO<sub>2</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> plumes were found to overlap to a large extent, although NO<sub><i>X</i></sub> had a limited lifetime (assumed to be 4&thinsp;h) and although CO<sub>2</sub> and NO<sub><i>X</i></sub> were emitted with different NO<sub><i>X</i></sub> : CO<sub>2</sub> emission ratios by different source types with different temporal and vertical emission profiles.
Using NO<sub>2</sub> observations from the Sentinel-5 platform instead resulted in a significant spatial mismatch between NO<sub>2</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> plumes due to the 2&thinsp;h time difference between Sentinel-5 and CO2M.
The plumes of the coal-fired power plant Jänschwalde were easier to detect with the CO<sub>2</sub> instrument (about 40–45 plumes per year), but, again, an NO<sub>2</sub> instrument could detect significantly more plumes (about 70).
Auxiliary measurements of NO<sub>2</sub> were thus found to greatly enhance the capability of detecting the location of CO<sub>2</sub> plumes, which will be invaluable for the quantification of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from large point sources.</p></abstract-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib1"><label>Ackerman et al.(2008)</label><mixed-citation>
Ackerman, S., Holz, R., Frey, R., Eloranta, E., Maddux, B., and McGill, M.:
Cloud detection with MODIS. Part II: validation, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 25, 1073–1086, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JTECHA1053.1" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JTECHA1053.1</a>, 2008.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib2"><label>Ackerman et al.(2017).</label><mixed-citation>
Ackerman, S., Menzel, P., Frey R., and Baum, B.:  MODIS Atmosphere L2 Cloud Mask
Product. NASA MODIS Adaptive Processing System, Goddard Space Flight Center,
<a href="https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD35_L2.061" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD35_L2.061</a>, 2017.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib3"><label>Agustí-Panareda et al.(2014)</label><mixed-citation>
Agustí-Panareda, A., Massart, S., Chevallier, F., Boussetta, S., Balsamo, G., Beljaars, A., Ciais, P., Deutscher, N. M., Engelen, R., Jones, L., Kivi, R., Paris, J.-D., Peuch, V.-H., Sherlock, V., Vermeulen, A. T., Wennberg, P. O., and Wunch, D.: Forecasting global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11959–11983, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014</a>, 2014.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib4"><label>AVISO GmbH and IE Leipzig(2016)</label><mixed-citation>
AVISO GmbH and IE Leipzig: Erstellung der Berliner Emissionskataster
Industrie, Gebäudeheizung, sonstiger Verkehr, Kleingewerbe, sonstige
Quellen, Baustellen – Schlussbericht Juni 2016, Tech. rep.,
available at: <a href="https://www.berlin.de/senuvk/umwelt/luftqualitaet/de/emissionen/download/Endbericht_Emissionkataster_2015.pdf" target="_blank"/>
(last access: 25 November 2019),
2016.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib5"><label>Bacour et al.(2015)</label><mixed-citation>
Bacour, C., Boesch, H., Bovensmann, H., Breon, F.-M., Broquet, G., Buchwitz,
M., Houweling, S., Klonecki, A., Krings, T., and Santaren, D.: LOGOFLUX 2 –
CarbonSat Earth Explorer 8 Candidate Mission – Inverse Modelling and Mission
Performance Study, Final report of ESA study contract
n°4000109818/14/NL/FF/lf, project led by NOVELTIS (France), Report, 2015.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib6"><label>Baldauf et al.(2011)</label><mixed-citation>
Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Forstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and
Reinhardt, T.: Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with
the COSMO model: description and sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139,
3887–3905, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/Mwr-D-10-05013.1" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1175/Mwr-D-10-05013.1</a>, 2011.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib7"><label>Boersma et al.(2004)</label><mixed-citation>
Boersma, K. F., Eskes, H. J., and Brinksma, E. J.: Error analysis for
tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> retrieval from space, J. Geophys. Res., 109,
D04311, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003962" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003962</a>, 2004.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib8"><label>Boersma et al.(2011)</label><mixed-citation>
Boersma, K. F., Eskes, H. J., Dirksen, R. J., van der A, R. J., Veefkind, J. P., Stammes, P., Huijnen, V., Kleipool, Q. L., Sneep, M., Claas, J., Leitão, J., Richter, A., Zhou, Y., and Brunner, D.: An improved tropospheric NO2 column retrieval algorithm for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 4, 1905–1928, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-4-1905-2011" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-4-1905-2011</a>, 2011.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib9"><label>Bovensmann et al.(2010)</label><mixed-citation>
Bovensmann, H., Buchwitz, M., Burrows, J. P., Reuter, M., Krings, T., Gerilowski, K., Schneising, O., Heymann, J., Tretner, A., and Erzinger, J.: A remote sensing technique for global monitoring of power plant CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from space and related applications, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 3, 781–811, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-3-781-2010" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-3-781-2010</a>, 2010.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib10"><label>Broquet et al.(2018)</label><mixed-citation>
Broquet, G., Bréon, F.-M., Renault, E., Buchwitz, M., Reuter, M., Bovensmann, H., Chevallier, F., Wu, L., and Ciais, P.: The potential of satellite spectro-imagery for monitoring CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from large cities, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 681–708, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018</a>, 2018.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib11"><label>Brunner et al.(2019)</label><mixed-citation>
Brunner, D., Kuhlmann, G., Marshall, J., Clément, V., Fuhrer, O., Broquet, G., Löscher, A., and Meijer, Y.: Accounting for the vertical distribution of emissions in atmospheric CO2 simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4541–4559, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4541-2019" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4541-2019</a>, 2019.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib12"><label>Buchwitz et al.(2013)</label><mixed-citation>
Buchwitz, M., Reuter, M., Bovensmann, H., Pillai, D., Heymann, J., Schneising, O., Rozanov, V., Krings, T., Burrows, J. P., Boesch, H., Gerbig, C., Meijer, Y., and Löscher, A.: Carbon Monitoring Satellite (CarbonSat): assessment of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> retrieval errors by error parameterization, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 3477–3500, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3477-2013" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3477-2013</a>, 2013.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib13"><label>C40 cities(2018)</label><mixed-citation>
C40 cities: 27 C40 cities have peaked their greenhouse gas emissions,
available at:
<a href="https://c40-production-images.s3.amazonaws.com/other_uploads/images/1923_Peaking_emissions_Media_Pack_Extended_version.original.pdf?1536847923" target="_blank"/>
(last access: 25 November 2019),
2018.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib14"><label>Chimot et al.(2013)</label><mixed-citation>
Chimot, J., Breon, F.-M., Prunet, P., Vinuesa, J.-F., Camy-Peyret, C., Broquet,
G., Chevallier, F., Renault, E., Houweling, S., Buchwitz, M., Bovensmann, H.,
Pillai, D., Reuter, M., Marshall, J., Brunner, D., Bergamaschi, P., Ciais,
P., and Klonecki, A.: LOGOFLUX – CarbonSat Earth Explorer 8 Candidate Mission
– Inverse Modelling and Mission Performance Study, Final report of ESA study
contract n°40010537/12/NL/CO, project led by NOVELTIS (France), Report,
2013.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib15"><label>Ciais et al.(2015)</label><mixed-citation>
Ciais, P., Crisp, D., Gon, H. v. d., Engelen, R., Heimann, M.,
Janssens-Maenhout, G., Rayner, P., and Scholze, M.: Towards a European
Operational Observing System to Monitor Fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions – Final Report
from the expert group, European Commission, Copernicus Climate Change
Service, Report, 2015.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib16"><label>Crisp et al.(2017)</label><mixed-citation>
Crisp, D., Pollock, H. R., Rosenberg, R., Chapsky, L., Lee, R. A. M., Oyafuso, F. A., Frankenberg, C., O'Dell, C. W., Bruegge, C. J., Doran, G. B., Eldering, A., Fisher, B. M., Fu, D., Gunson, M. R., Mandrake, L., Osterman, G. B., Schwandner, F. M., Sun, K., Taylor, T. E., Wennberg, P. O., and Wunch, D.: The on-orbit performance of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) instrument and its radiometrically calibrated products, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 59–81, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-59-2017" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-59-2017</a>, 2017.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib17"><label>Deeter et al.(2017)</label><mixed-citation>
Deeter, M. N., Edwards, D. P., Francis, G. L., Gille, J. C., Martínez-Alonso, S., Worden, H. M., and Sweeney, C.: A climate-scale satellite record for carbon monoxide: the MOPITT Version 7 product, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2533–2555, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2533-2017" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2533-2017</a>, 2017.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib18"><label>Düring et al.(2011)</label><mixed-citation>
Düring, I., Bächlin, W., Ketzel, M., Baum, A., Friedrich, U., and Wurzler,
S.: A new simplified NO∕NO<sub>2</sub> conversion model under consideration of direct
NO<sub>2</sub>-emissions, Meteorol. Z., 20, 67–73,
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0491" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0491</a>, 2011.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib19"><label>ESA(2015)</label><mixed-citation>
ESA: Report for mission selection: CarbonSat, ESA SP-1330/1 (2 volume series),
Report, 2015.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib20"><label>Fioletov et al.(2015)</label><mixed-citation>
Fioletov, V. E., McLinden, C. A., Krotkov, N., and Li, C.: Lifetimes and
emissions of SO<sub>2</sub> from point sources estimated from OMI, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 42, 1969–1976, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063148" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063148</a>, 2015.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib21"><label>Flemming et al.(2015)</label><mixed-citation>
Flemming, J., Huijnen, V., Arteta, J., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A., Blechschmidt, A.-M., Diamantakis, M., Engelen, R. J., Gaudel, A., Inness, A., Jones, L., Josse, B., Katragkou, E., Marecal, V., Peuch, V.-H., Richter, A., Schultz, M. G., Stein, O., and Tsikerdekis, A.: Tropospheric chemistry in the Integrated Forecasting System of ECMWF, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 975–1003, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-975-2015" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-975-2015</a>, 2015.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib22"><label>Ingmann et al.(2012)</label><mixed-citation>
Ingmann, P., Veihelmann, B., Langen, J., Lamarre, D., Stark, H., and
Courrǵes-Lacoste, G. B.: Requirements for the GMES Atmosphere Service and
ESA's implementation concept: Sentinels-4/-5 and -5p, Remote Sens. Environ., 120,
58–69, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.01.023" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.01.023</a>, 2012.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib23"><label>Krings et al.(2013)</label><mixed-citation>
Krings, T., Gerilowski, K., Buchwitz, M., Hartmann, J., Sachs, T., Erzinger, J., Burrows, J. P., and Bovensmann, H.: Quantification of methane emission rates from coal mine ventilation shafts using airborne remote sensing data, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 151–166, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-151-2013" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-151-2013</a>, 2013.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib24"><label>Kuenen et al.(2014)</label><mixed-citation>
Kuenen, J. J. P., Visschedijk, A. J. H., Jozwicka, M., and Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.: TNO-MACC_II emission inventory; a multi-year (2003–2009) consistent high-resolution European emission inventory for air quality modelling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10963–10976, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10963-2014" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10963-2014</a>, 2014.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib25"><label>Kuenen et al.(2017)</label><mixed-citation>
Kuenen, J. J. P., Visschedijk, A. J. H., Denier van der Gon, H. A. C., Jonkers, S., and Janssens-Maenhout, G.: TNO-CAMS European CO<sub>2</sub> emissions 2000–2014 v1, TNO, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.112889" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.112889</a>, 2017.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib26"><label>Kuhlmann et al.(2019)</label><mixed-citation>
Kuhlmann, G., Clément, V., Marschall, J., Fuhrer, O., Broquet, G.,
Schnadt-Poberaj, C., Löscher, A., Meijer, Y., and Brunner, D.: SMARTCARB –
Use of Satellite Measurements of Auxiliary Reactive Trace Gases for Fossil
Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emission Estimation, Final report of ESA study contract
n°4000119599/16/NL/FF/mg, Tech. rep., Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for
Materials Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland,
available at: <a href="https://www.empa.ch/documents/56101/617885/FR_Smartcarb_final_Jan2019.pdf" target="_blank"/>
(last access: 25 November 2019),
2019.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib27"><label>Lecomte et al.(2017)</label><mixed-citation>
Lecomte, T., de la Fuente, J. F. F., Neuwahl, F., Canova, M., Pinasseau, A.,
Jankov, I., Brinkmann, T., Roudier, S., and Sancho, L. D.: Best Available
Techniques (BAT) Reference Document for Large Combustion Plants – Industrial
Emissions Directive 2010/75/EU Integrated Pollution Prevention and control,
Tech. rep., 2017.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib28"><label>Liu et al.(2017)</label><mixed-citation>
Liu, Y., Gruber, N., and Brunner, D.: Spatiotemporal patterns of the fossil-fuel CO2 signal in central Europe: results from a high-resolution atmospheric transport model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14145–14169, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14145-2017" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14145-2017</a>, 2017.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib29"><label>Mahadevan et al.(2008)</label><mixed-citation>
Mahadevan, P., Wofsy, S. C., Matross, D. M., Xiao, X., Dunn, A. L., Lin, J. C.,
Gerbig, C., Munger, J. W., Chow, V. Y., and Gottlieb, E. W.: A
satellite-based biosphere parameterization for net ecosystem CO<sub>2</sub> exchange:
Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM), Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, 2, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002735" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002735</a>, 2008.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib30"><label>MOPITT Algorithm Development Team(2017)</label><mixed-citation>
MOPITT Algorithm Development Team: Measurements of Pollution in the
Troposphere (MOPITT) Version 7 Product User's Guide,
available at: <a href="https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/mopitt/v7_users_guide_201707.pdf" target="_blank"/>
(last access: 25 November 2019),
2017.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib31"><label>Nassar et al.(2017)</label><mixed-citation>
Nassar, R., Hill, T. G., McLinden, C. A., Wunch, D., Jones, D. B. A., and
Crisp, D.: Quantifying CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions From Individual Power Plants From
Space, Geophys. Res., 44, 10045–10053,
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074702" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074702</a>, 2017.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib32"><label>O'Dell et al.(2012)</label><mixed-citation>
O'Dell, C. W., Connor, B., Bösch, H., O'Brien, D., Frankenberg, C., Castano, R., Christi, M., Eldering, D., Fisher, B., Gunson, M., McDuffie, J., Miller, C. E., Natraj, V., Oyafuso, F., Polonsky, I., Smyth, M., Taylor, T., Toon, G. C., Wennberg, P. O., and Wunch, D.: The ACOS CO2 retrieval algorithm – Part 1: Description and validation against synthetic observations, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 5, 99–121, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-5-99-2012" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-5-99-2012</a>, 2012.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib33"><label>Oney et al.(2015)</label><mixed-citation>
Oney, B., Henne, S., Gruber, N., Leuenberger, M., Bamberger, I., Eugster, W., and Brunner, D.: The CarboCount CH sites: characterization of a dense greenhouse gas observation network, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11147–11164, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11147-2015" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11147-2015</a>, 2015.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib34"><label>Pillai et al.(2016)</label><mixed-citation>
Pillai, D., Buchwitz, M., Gerbig, C., Koch, T., Reuter, M., Bovensmann, H., Marshall, J., and Burrows, J. P.: Tracking city CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from space using a high-resolution inverse modelling approach: a case study for Berlin, Germany, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9591–9610, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9591-2016" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9591-2016</a>, 2016.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib35"><label>Pinty et al.(2018)</label><mixed-citation>
Pinty, B., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Dowell, M., Zunker, H., Brunhe, T., Ciais,
P., Dee, D., van der Gon, H. D., Dolman, H., Drinkwater, M., Engelen, R.,
Heimann, M., Holmlund, K., Husband, R., Kentarchos, A., Meijer, Y., Palmer,
P., and Scholz, M.: An Operational Anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions Monitoring &amp;
Verification Support capacity – Baseline Requirements, Model Components and
Functional Architecture, Report, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2760/39384" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.2760/39384</a>, 2018.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib36"><label>Platnick et al.(2017)</label><mixed-citation>
Platnick, S., Ackerman, S., King, M., Wind, G., Meyer, K., Menzel, P., Frey,
R., Holz, R., Baum, B., and Yang, P.: MODIS atmosphere L2 cloud product
(06_L2), NASA MODIS Adaptive Processing System, Goddard Space Flight Center,
<a href="https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD06_L2.061" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD06_L2.061</a>, 2017.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib37"><label>Reuter et al.(2014)</label><mixed-citation>
Reuter, M., Buchwitz, M., Hilboll, A., Richter, A., Schneising, O., Hilker, M.,
Heymann, J., Bovensmann, H., and Burrows, J.: Decreasing emissions of NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>
relative to CO<sub>2</sub> in East Asia inferred from satellite observations, Nat. Geosci,
7, 792–795, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2257" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2257</a>, 2014.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib38"><label>Reuter et al.(2019)</label><mixed-citation>
Reuter, M., Buchwitz, M., Schneising, O., Krautwurst, S., O'Dell, C. W., Richter, A., Bovensmann, H., and Burrows, J. P.: Towards monitoring localized CO2 emissions from space: co-located regional CO<sub>2</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> enhancements observed by the OCO-2 and S5P satellites, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9371–9383, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9371-2019" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9371-2019</a>, 2019.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib39"><label>Schaaf and Wang(2015)</label><mixed-citation>
Schaaf, C. and Wang, Z.: MCD43A3 MODIS/Terra+Aqua BRDF/Albedo Daily L3 Global –  500m V006 [Data set], NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC,
<a href="https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD43A3.006" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD43A3.006</a>, 2015.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib40"><label>Schaub et al.(2007)</label><mixed-citation>
Schaub, D., Brunner, D., Boersma, K. F., Keller, J., Folini, D., Buchmann, B., Berresheim, H., and Staehelin, J.: SCIAMACHY tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> over Switzerland: estimates of NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> lifetimes and impact of the complex Alpine topography on the retrieval, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5971–5987, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5971-2007" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5971-2007</a>, 2007.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib41"><label>Sierk et al.(2019)</label><mixed-citation>
Sierk, B., Bézy, J.-L., Löscher, A., and Meijer, Y.: The European CO<sub>2</sub>
Monitoring Mission: observing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from
space, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2535941" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2535941</a>, 2019.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib42"><label>Taylor et al.(2016)</label><mixed-citation>
Taylor, T. E., O'Dell, C. W., Frankenberg, C., Partain, P. T., Cronk, H. Q., Savtchenko, A., Nelson, R. R., Rosenthal, E. J., Chang, A. Y., Fisher, B., Osterman, G. B., Pollock, R. H., Crisp, D., Eldering, A., and Gunson, M. R.: Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) cloud screening algorithms: validation against collocated MODIS and CALIOP data, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 973–989, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-973-2016" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-973-2016</a>, 2016.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib43"><label>Ting(2010)</label><mixed-citation>
Ting, K. M.: Confusion Matrix,  209–209, Springer US, Boston, MA,
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30164-8_157" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-30164-8_157</a>, 2010.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib44"><label>UNFCCC(2015)</label><mixed-citation>
UNFCCC: Paris Agreement, FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev1, available at:
<a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf" target="_blank"/> (last access: 25 November 2019), 2015.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib45"><label>Varon et al.(2018)</label><mixed-citation>
Varon, D. J., Jacob, D. J., McKeever, J., Jervis, D., Durak, B. O. A., Xia, Y., and Huang, Y.: Quantifying methane point sources from fine-scale satellite observations of atmospheric methane plumes, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 5673–5686, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5673-2018" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5673-2018</a>, 2018.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib46"><label>Velazco et al.(2011)</label><mixed-citation>
Velazco, V. A., Buchwitz, M., Bovensmann, H., Reuter, M., Schneising, O., Heymann, J., Krings, T., Gerilowski, K., and Burrows, J. P.: Towards space based verification of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from strong localized sources: fossil fuel power plant emissions as seen by a CarbonSat constellation, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 4, 2809–2822, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-4-2809-2011" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-4-2809-2011</a>, 2011.

</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib47"><label>v. Storch and Zwiers(2003)</label><mixed-citation>
v. Storch, H. and Zwiers, F. W.: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research,
Cambride University Press, Cambridge, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612336" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612336</a>, 2003.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>
<ref-html id="bib1.bib48"><label>Wenig et al.(2008)</label><mixed-citation>
Wenig, M. O., Cede, A. M., Bucsela, E. J., Celarier, E. A., Boersma, K. F.,
Veefkind, J. P., Brinksma, E. J., Gleason, J. F., and Herman, J. R.:
Validation of OMI tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> column densities using direct-Sun mode
Brewer measurements at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,  J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16S45, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008988" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008988</a>, 2008.
</mixed-citation></ref-html>--></article>
