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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">AMT</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Atmospheric Measurement Techniques</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">AMT</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Atmos. Meas. Tech.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1867-8548</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/amt-13-6593-2020</article-id><title-group><article-title>Improvement of numerical weather prediction model analysis during fog conditions through the assimilation of <?xmltex \hack{\break}?> ground-based microwave radiometer <?xmltex \hack{\break}?>observations: a 1D-Var study</article-title><alt-title>Microwave radiometers for fog forecast improvement</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{Microwave radiometers for fog forecast improvement}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{P.~Martinet et~al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Martinet</surname><given-names>Pauline</given-names></name>
          <email>pauline.martinet@meteo.fr</email>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff2">
          <name><surname>Cimini</surname><given-names>Domenico</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5962-223X</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Burnet</surname><given-names>Frédéric</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Ménétrier</surname><given-names>Benjamin</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Michel</surname><given-names>Yann</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Unger</surname><given-names>Vinciane</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA-CNR), Potenza, Italy</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Pauline Martinet (pauline.martinet@meteo.fr)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>7</day><month>December</month><year>2020</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>13</volume>
      <issue>12</issue>
      <fpage>6593</fpage><lpage>6611</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>28</day><month>April</month><year>2020</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>5</day><month>October</month><year>2020</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>2</day><month>October</month><year>2020</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>13</day><month>May</month><year>2020</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2020 Pauline Martinet et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020.html">This article is available from https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>
    <p id="d1e137">This paper investigates the potential benefit of ground-based microwave radiometers (MWRs) to improve the initial state (analysis)
of current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems during fog
conditions. To this end, temperature, humidity and liquid water path
(LWP) retrievals have been performed by directly assimilating
brightness temperatures using a one-dimensional variational technique
(1D-Var). This study focuses on a fog-dedicated field-experiment
performed over winter 2016–2017 in France. In situ measurements from
a 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> tower and radiosoundings are used to assess the
improvement brought by the 1D-Var analysis to the background. A
sensitivity study demonstrates the importance of the
cross-correlations between temperature and specific humidity in the
background-error-covariance matrix as well as the bias correction
applied on MWR raw measurements. With the optimal 1D-Var
configuration, root-mean-square errors smaller than 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(respectively 0.8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) for temperature and 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(respectively 0.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) for humidity are obtained up to
6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude (respectively within the fog layer up to
250 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). A thin radiative fog case study has shown that the
assimilation of MWR observations was able to correct large temperature
errors of the AROME (Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale) model as well as vertical and temporal errors
observed in the fog life cycle. A statistical evaluation through the
whole period has demonstrated that the largest impact when
assimilating MWR observations is obtained on the temperature and LWP
fields, while it is neutral to slightly positive for the specific
humidity. Most of the temperature improvement is observed during false
alarms when the AROME forecasts tend to significantly overestimate the
temperature cooling. During missed fog profiles, 1D-Var analyses were
found to increase the atmospheric stability within the first
100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> above the surface compared to the initial background
profile. Concerning the LWP, the RMSE with respect to MWR statistical
regressions is decreased from 101 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the background
to 27 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the 1D-Var analysis. These encouraging
results led to the deployment of eight MWRs during the international
SOFOG3D (SOuth FOGs 3D experiment for fog processes study) experiment
conducted by Météo-France.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e266">Each year large human and economical losses are due to fog episodes,
which, by the large reduction of visibility, affect air, marine,
and land transportation <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx18" id="paren.1"/>. Fog forecasts remain
quite inaccurate due to the complexity, non-linearities and fine scale
of the physical processes taking part in the fog life cycle. Fog
results from a combination of radiative, turbulent and microphysical
processes as well as interactions with surface heterogeneities which
will drive the relative importance of local and large-scale
circulations. Recently, three-dimensional models have replaced
one-dimensional models to forecast fog in most national weather
services. Currently, convective-scale numerical weather prediction
(NWP) models run with a<?pagebreak page6594?> horizontal resolution of approximately 1 km with frequent data assimilation cycles. While the importance
of vertical resolution <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx37" id="paren.2"/>, aerosol activation
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx30" id="paren.3"/> or water deposition <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx44" id="paren.4"/> have recently
been highlighted to improve fog forecasts, fog is also known to be
highly sensitive to initial conditions
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2 bib1.bibx3 bib1.bibx21" id="paren.5"/>. Therefore, accurate initial
temperature, humidity and wind profiles are crucial to successfully
forecast fog. However, the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) has also
been identified as a part of the atmosphere which is undersampled by
observations. Even though satellite data enable global coverage all
over the world, they provide limited information on the ABL due to the
attenuation by clouds and degraded vertical resolution in the
ABL. Additionally, uncertainties in surface properties (such as skin
temperature and emissivity) limit the assimilation of
surface-sensitive channels over land <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx17" id="paren.6"/>. Recently, an
observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="text.7"/> has
demonstrated that temperature and moisture at the surface have a
larger impact on fog forecast than surface wind observations,
concluding that temperature and humidity profilers could potentially
play a major role in the improvement of fog forecast
initialization. Ground-based microwave radiometers (MWRs) are robust
instruments providing continuous observations of temperature and
humidity profiles as well as integrated liquid and water contents
during all-sky weather conditions. Even if their vertical resolution
degrades with altitude <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx7" id="paren.8"/>, most of their information
content resides in the ABL <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx25" id="paren.9"/> and their high temporal
resolution (few minutes) makes them suitable to monitor the evolution
of fog. Despite the potential impact of MWRs in NWP models,
assimilation experiments of their data have been limited to a few
attempts. The first preliminary study of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx45" id="text.10"/> has
demonstrated a positive impact of the assimilation of a single MWR
unit into the 10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> horizontal resolution MM5
(<uri>https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/</uri>, last access: 17 November 2020) mesoscale model in the context of a winter fog event. The impact of a simulated network
of 140 MWRs through an OSSE was also investigated by
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx35" id="text.11"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx19" id="text.12"/> on a winter storm case. This
study confirmed a positive impact on temperature and humidity analyses
as well as up to 12 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecasts on moisture flux. More
recently, a real network of 13 MWRs was assimilated by
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.13"/> into the 2.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> horizontal resolution
convective-scale model AROME in the context of heavy-precipitation
events in the western Mediterranean. The impact of this network was found
to be neutral on temperature and humidity fields but positive on
quantitative precipitation forecasts up to 18 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. In addition,
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx27 bib1.bibx28" id="text.14"/> have demonstrated the
positive impact that could be expected on NWP temperature profile
analyses by the direct assimilation of MWR brightness temperatures
into the AROME model with a one-dimensional variational framework
(1D-Var). All these studies showed an encouraging positive impact of
the assimilation of MWR observations into NWP, though they are limited
to single deep-convection case studies on low-resolution limited-area
models or restricted to temperature analyses only. The purpose of
this article is to evaluate the expected benefit of MWRs on kilometre-scale
NWP analyses during fog events on an extended dataset over a 6-month
fog experiment. This expands the studies by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx27 bib1.bibx28" id="text.15"/> to humidity and liquid water path retrievals and
evaluates the impact of new tools developed to optimize the
assimilation of MWRs during COST Actions TOPROF
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx23" id="paren.16"/> and PROBE <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="paren.17"/>. A fog-dedicated
field experiment was carried out in the north-east of France during
the winter 2016–2017 during which a 14-channel MWR has been
operated. The impact of MWR brightness temperatures on temperature,
humidity and liquid water content profiles forecast by AROME has been
evaluated during the 6-month period against in situ data collected
during intensive observation periods (IOPs) and continuous
measurements deployed on a 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> instrumented tower. This
paper begins with an overview of the dataset and the AROME model and a
description of the 1D-Var settings in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2"/>. A
sensitivity study of the 1D-Var retrievals to the
background-error-covariance matrix and bias correction to select the
optimal configuration is presented in
Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3"/>. Section <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S4"/> presents a case
study of the first IOP showing large AROME errors during a thin
radiative fog event that are corrected when using the 1D-Var
retrieval. Section <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S5"/> generalizes the results obtained
in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S4"/> through a statistical evaluation of 1D-Var
retrieval errors and expected impact on the AROME analyses. Section <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S6"/> presents the deployment of a regional-scale MWR
network for fog forecast improvement as continuity of this study,
while finally Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S7"/> summarizes the main conclusions.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Dataset and methodology</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <label>2.1</label><title>Instrumentation</title>
      <p id="d1e397">Data sampled during a field experiment dedicated to fog process
studies carried out at the ANDRA (the French national radioactive
waste management agency) atmospheric platform located in
Houdelaincourt (48.5623<inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N,
5.5055<inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E)  in the
north-east of France during the winter 2016–2017 are used in this
study. The experimental site was chosen due to the high occurrence of
fog and the possibility to take advantage of a 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
instrumented tower. A large range of in situ instrumentation was
deployed during the 6-month experiment: visibility sensors, liquid
water content and droplet size distribution measurements, and temperature
and relative humidity measurements at different levels above ground
(10, 50, 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). In addition to in situ measurements, a
14-channel HATPRO MWR <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42" id="paren.18"/> manufactured by Radiometer
Physics GmbH (RPG) was deployed on site during the experiment. The
HATPRO MWR is a passive<?pagebreak page6595?> instrument measuring the naturally emitted
downwelling radiance in two spectral ranges: 22.24 to 31 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
to retrieve humidity profiles with a low resolution but highly accurate integrated water vapour (IWV) content and liquid water path (LWP) and 51 to 58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> range, located in the 60 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">O</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
absorption complex line, to retrieve temperature profiles. Elevation
scans from 5.4 to 90<inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> were used to improve the vertical
resolution of temperature profiles, assuming that horizontal
homogeneity in the vicinity of the instrument is respected. A
ceilometer (Vaisala CL31) was deployed during October to December 2016
and replaced by a Vaisala CT25K from January to April 2017 to determine
the cloud base altitude. In addition, 21 Vaisala RS92 radiosondes with
an expected accuracy of 0.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in temperature and 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
in relative humidity were launched during IOPs. Tethered balloon
measurements were also carried out with the deployment of a cloud
particle probe and a turbulence probe.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <label>2.2</label><title>The AROME NWP model</title>
      <p id="d1e507">In this study 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecasts from the French convective-scale
model AROME (Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale;
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx43" id="altparen.19"/>) are used as a priori profiles or
“backgrounds”. AROME is a limited-area model covering western Europe
with non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Since beginning in 2015, the
horizontal resolution of AROME has been increased from 2.5 to
1.3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as well as the number of vertical levels from 60 to 90
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx5" id="paren.20"/>.  Vertical levels follow the terrain in the
lowest layers and isobars in the upper atmosphere. The detailed
physics of AROME are inherited from the research Meso-NH model
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx24" id="paren.21"/>. Deep convection is assumed to be resolved
explicitly, but shallow convection is parameterized following
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx36" id="text.22"/>. A bulk one-moment microphysical scheme
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx38" id="paren.23"/> governs the equations of the specific contents of
six water species (humidity, cloud liquid water, precipitating liquid
water, pristine ice, snow and graupel). This new version also
performs 3D-Var analyses every hour instead of every 3 h to
optimize the use of frequent observations. All conventional
observations are assimilated together with wind profilers, winds from
space-borne measurements (Atmospheric Motion Vectors and
scatterometers), Doppler winds <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33" id="paren.24"/> and reflectivity
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx46" id="paren.25"/> from ground-based weather radars, satellite
radiances and ground-based GPS measurements
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx26" id="paren.26"/>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3">
  <label>2.3</label><title>1D-Var framework</title>
      <p id="d1e559">To retrieve temperature and humidity profiles and evaluate the impact
on AROME analyses, a 1D-Var framework similar to the one described in
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx28" id="text.27"/> is used. Based on the optimal estimation theory
by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx41" id="text.28"/>, MWR observations are optimally combined with an a
priori estimation of the atmospheric state which, in this study,
refers to 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> AROME forecasts. To this end, the two sources of
information are weighted by their corresponding uncertainty that is called the
background-error-covariance matrix (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) for the a priori
profile and the observation-error-covariance matrix (<bold>R</bold>) for
the observation to find the optimal state. In order to find the
optimal state minimizing the distance to the observation, a radiative
transfer model is needed to compute the equivalent observation from
the a priori data.  The method iteratively modifies the state vector
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> from the a priori <inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to minimize
the following cost function:
            <disp-formula id="Ch1.Ex1"><mml:math id="M33" display="block"><mml:mtable class="split" rowspacing="0.2ex" columnspacing="1em" displaystyle="true" columnalign="right left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mi>J</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mspace width="0.25em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">T</mml:mi></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mspace width="0.25em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">y</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">H</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="bold">(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="bold">)</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">T</mml:mi></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">R</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">y</mml:mi><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">H</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="bold">(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mo mathvariant="bold">)</mml:mo><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>
          where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> represents the observation operator (radiative transfer model and interpolations from model space to observation space), symbol “<inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">T</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>” represents the transpose operator and “<inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>”
the inverse operator. The observation-error-covariance matrix
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">R</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> should take into account representativeness and forward
model errors as well as radiometric noise. Throughout the article,
the atmospheric state minimizing the cost function is called the
“analysis” (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), “increment” refers to the difference between
the a priori <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and the analysis, and “innovation” refers
to the difference between the observation and the a priori
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p id="d1e799">For the first time, the fast radiative transfer model RTTOV-gb <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx12 bib1.bibx9" id="paren.29"/>, developed specifically to simulate MWR observations for operational applications during the Cost Action TOPROF, is used within the 1D-Var package maintained by the NWP Satellite Application Facility (NWPSAF; <uri>https://www.nwpsaf.eu/site/software/1d-var/</uri>, last access: 17 November 2020). To this end, the 1D-Var has been adapted to the ground-based sensing configuration
of MWRs and interfaced with RTTOV-gb. In this study the control vector
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> consists of temperature and the natural logarithm of specific
humidity on the same 90 levels as defined in AROME. These levels cover
the atmospheric range from the ground up to 30 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, with the
vertical resolution decreasing with altitude: 20–100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> below
1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 100–200 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from 1 to 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and around
400 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at 10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. In addition to temperature and
humidity, the liquid water path is also included in the control
vector. Following the current implementation of the NWPSAF 1D-Var, no
correlation between the LWP and the other variables is assumed in the
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix. The observation vector <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> consists of
brightness temperatures (BT) in all K-band<fn id="Ch1.Footn1"><p id="d1e887">22.24, 23.04,
23.84, 25.44, 26.24, 27.84 and 31.4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></p></fn> and V-band channels<fn id="Ch1.Footn2"><p id="d1e898">51.26, 52.28, 53.86, 54.94, 56.66, 57.3 and 58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></p></fn> at zenith
and only opaque channels (above 54 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) at low elevation
angles: 42, 30, 19.2, 10.2 and
5.4<inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. Transparent channels are not used at low elevation
angles due to the violation of the assumption of horizontal
homogeneity.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<?pagebreak page6596?><sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Evaluation of 1D-Var retrievals</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Background errors</title>
      <p id="d1e942">In variational data assimilation (either 1D-Var or 3D/4D-Var), the
accuracy of the analysis will depend on the background-error-covariance matrix <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>. This matrix specifies how much weight
is given to the a priori profile compared to the observation, specifies how
the information from the localized observation is spread in the model
space both vertically and horizontally (for 3D/4D-Var assimilation),
and imposes the balance between the model control variables. However,
due to difficulties in measuring the “true” state, this <inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>
matrix has to be modelled. Currently, climatological, spatially
homogeneous and isotropic background-error covariances are used
operationally in the AROME model <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx4" id="paren.30"/>. They are
computed from 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> range forecast differences from an ensemble
data assimilation over long time periods and the whole model
domain. As demonstrated by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx31" id="text.31"/>, climatological
covariances are inadequate for fog areas which exhibit a much stronger
positive coupling between temperature and humidity and attenuated
vertical correlations above the fog layer.  For this study, a similar
approach as the one described in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx31" id="text.32"/> has thus been
used to infer background-error covariances adapted to fog layers and
to the AROME configuration and the time period of the experiment. To
this end, the AROME ensemble data assimilation (AROME EDA) schemes
that mimic in a variational context the approach taken in the
stochastic ensemble Kalman filter <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx15" id="paren.33"/> has been
used. The EDA explicitly perturbs the observations, the model and the
boundary conditions and gives in return estimates of analysis and
background-error covariance <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx16 bib1.bibx47" id="paren.34"/>. The AROME
EDA consists of running an ensemble of 3D-Var analyses in parallel, where the
observations are perturbed according to their prescribed error
statistics. The model perturbations are represented by an online
multiplicative inflation scheme <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="paren.35"/>. The
inflation factor is derived from the skill over spread ratio. The
perturbed boundary conditions are taken from the global EDA
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx40" id="paren.36"/>. The EDA configuration used for this study
corresponds to the operational implementation since July 2018 with a
horizontal resolution set to 3.2 km and an ensemble size of 25
members.</p>
      <p id="d1e989">Firstly, using this AROME EDA, a so-called “climatological”
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> was obtained by computing the forecast differences,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>l</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi><mml:mi>l</mml:mi></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, between members <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mi>l</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> for all
grid points of the whole AROME domain and all assimilation cycles on
the 28 October 2016 (IOP1). A specific fog <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix was
then computed by applying a fog mask in order to only select grid
points for which most of the EDA members forecast fog. According to
the discussion on the fog-model predictor used in
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx31" id="text.37"/>, the fog mask was based on the presence of
liquid water contents above <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the first
three layers of the model.  Several fog <inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrices have
been computed using different assimilation cycles. The fog
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix showing the best results in terms of
root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) with respect to radiosoundings has then
been selected for this study.  Similarly to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx5" id="text.38"/>,
background-error standard deviations are multiplied by a factor
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in order to take into account the forecast error
reduction while the background range decreases from 3 to 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(as the AROME EDA provides 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecasts, whereas the 1D-Var
deals with 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecasts). Based on comparison with in situ
measurements, an optimal value of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">α</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.7</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> was found. This
multiplicative factor is only applied on background-error standard
deviations, while cross-correlations are assumed to be the same at the
1 and 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecast ranges.  Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F1"/> compares
background-error standard deviations for temperature and the natural
logarithm of specific humidity computed for the climatological and
fog <inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrices. Similar shape and magnitude are
observed between the two <inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrices for the natural
logarithm of specific humidity. However, in the case of temperature,
background errors in fog areas are found to be larger within the first
500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> with a maximum of 0.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at 250 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. On the
other hand, the climatological <inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix shows values
below 0.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> within the whole fog layer.  Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F2"/>
shows the cross-correlations between specific humidity and
temperature. Similarly to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx31" id="text.39"/>, a strong positive
coupling appears in the fog layer within the first 200 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. This
coupling implies that a positive temperature error will be translated
into a positive specific-humidity error (and vice versa) due to
saturated conditions. This structure significantly differs from the
one observed in climatological conditions with almost no coupling
between the two variables in the boundary layer. The fog layer is also
uncoupled with atmospheric layers above the fog top which exhibit a
negative coupling between temperature and humidity.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e1237">Background error standard deviations for temperature <bold>(a)</bold> and the natural logarithm of specific humidity <bold>(b)</bold>  for a climatological <inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix (red line) or a specific fog <inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix (blue line).</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e1269">Cross-correlations between the natural logarithm of specific humidity (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis) and temperature (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis) for a fog <inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix <bold>(a)</bold> or a climatological <inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix <bold>(b)</bold>. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mi>x</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M88" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis are labelled according to altitude above ground in metres.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Optimal configuration of 1D-Var retrievals</title>
      <p id="d1e1335">The accuracy of 1D-Var retrievals depends not only on the background-error-covariance matrix but also on an adequate specification of the observation-error-covariance matrix. Observation
errors are assumed to follow Gaussian distributions with zero mean. A
similar method as described in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx27" id="text.40"/>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx13" id="text.41"/> and
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="text.42"/> has been used to implement a bias correction of BT
measurements based on 6-month differences between MWR observations and
BTs simulated from AROME 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecasts with the use of
RTTOV-gb (so-called “O-B monitoring”). Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T1"/> reports
the biases obtained for each channel at 90<inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> and the most
opaque channels at low elevation angles. The values are consistent
with those reported in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx13" id="text.43"/>. A static bias correction
of all channels based on Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T1"/> has been applied to the
measurements.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T1" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Table 1</label><caption><p id="d1e1375">Bias of the observation minus background departures computed from AROME forecasts for all frequencies at 90<inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> elevation angle and only the most opaque channels (54.94 to 58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) at lower elevation angles.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="15">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="9" colname="col9" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="10" colname="col10" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="11" colname="col11" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="12" colname="col12" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="13" colname="col13" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="14" colname="col14" align="center"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="15" colname="col15" align="center"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">22.24</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">23.04</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">23.84</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">25.44</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">26.24</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">27.84</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">31.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">51.26</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">52.28</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">53.86</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">54.94</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col13">56.66</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col14">57.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col15">58</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">90<inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">0.41</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.66</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.17</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.18</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.15</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.43</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">0.31</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>1.30</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>4.72</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M97" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.28</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.04</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col13">0.06</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col14">0.16</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col15">0.20</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">42<inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">0.04</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col13">0.18</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col14">0.22</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col15">0.23</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">30<inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">0.07</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col13">0.24</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col14">0.27</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col15">0.27</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">19.2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">0.14</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col13">0.31</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col14">0.33</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col15">0.30</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">10.2<inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">0.23</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col13">0.37</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col14">0.35</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col15">0.32</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">5.4<inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">–</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">0.18</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col13">0.24</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col14">0.25</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col15">0.21</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <?pagebreak page6597?><p id="d1e1867">Observation errors due to liquid nitrogen calibration and
spectroscopic errors in radiative transfer models were updated
according to recent studies from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx29" id="text.44"/> and
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8" id="text.45"/>. Therefore, in addition to commonly used values of
instrumental noise (0.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for transparent channels and
0.2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for the most opaque channels), the individual errors
defined by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx29" id="text.46"/> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx8" id="text.47"/> were added in
quadrature:

                <disp-formula id="Ch1.Ex2"><mml:math id="M106" display="block"><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tot</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msqrt><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">noise</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">calib</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">FM</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:msqrt><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M107" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">tot</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> the total observation errors,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">noise</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> the uncertainty due to noise,
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">calib</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> calibration uncertainties and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">FM</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> the uncertainty due to spectroscopic errors in
the radiative transfer model.  It is important to note that
calibration errors of modern MWRs are lower than the ones used in this
study due to new developments in the manufacturer software and liquid
nitrogen target used for the radiometer
calibration. Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T2"/> summarizes the total observation
uncertainty for each channel.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Table 2</label><caption><p id="d1e1994">Observation uncertainties (K) prescribed in the observation-error-covariance matrix for each channel.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><?xmltex \begin{scaleboxenv}{.950}[.950]?><oasis:tgroup cols="15">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="7" colname="col7" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="8" colname="col8" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="9" colname="col9" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="10" colname="col10" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="11" colname="col11" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="12" colname="col12" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="13" colname="col13" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="14" colname="col14" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="15" colname="col15" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Frequency (GHz):</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">22.24</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">23.04</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">23.84</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">25.44</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">26.24</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">27.84</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">31.4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">51.26</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">52.28</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">53.86</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">54.94</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col13">56.66</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col14">57.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col15">58</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">σ</mml:mi><mml:mi>o</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (K):</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">1.34</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">1.71</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">1.16</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">1.08</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">1.25</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col7">1.17</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col8">1.19</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col9">3.21</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col10">3.29</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col11">1.30</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col12">0.37</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col13">0.42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col14">0.42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col15">0.36</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup><?xmltex \end{scaleboxenv}?></oasis:table></table-wrap>

      <p id="d1e2151">In order to define the best configuration of 1D-Var retrievals in
terms of background-error-covariance matrix and bias correction,
statistics have been performed over the 6-month period by comparison
with the 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> tower measurements. For each altitude
instrumented with a weather station (50 and 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude)
and each variable (temperature and specific humidity), the error
reduction brought by the analysis over the background is defined as

                <disp-formula id="Ch1.Ex3"><mml:math id="M114" display="block"><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mtext>ER</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext>RMSE</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext>RMSE</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

          with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M115" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext>RMSE</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> the root-mean-square errors of the 1D-Var
retrieved profiles with respect to the mast measurements and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext>RMSE</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> the root-mean-square errors of the background profiles
with respect to the mast measurements. It is important to note that,
given the relative low vertical resolution of MWR retrievals, the
retrievals at 50 and 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are likely to be highly
correlated.</p>
      <p id="d1e2245">Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T4"/> reports the calculated error reduction for each
variable, each altitude and each 1D-Var configuration. The 1D-Var
configuration maximizing each ER will be selected as the<?pagebreak page6598?> best
configuration. Statistics are divided between fog profiles only (lower
part) or all weather conditions except fog (upper part).  In addition
to tower measurements limited to only two levels, the different 1D-Var
configurations were also evaluated in terms of bias and RMSE against
21 radiosondes (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/>). Radiosondes were launched during
IOPs in different atmospheric conditions: the majority was under
stratus cloud and fog conditions and a few of them in
clear-sky conditions. Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T3"/> gives a list of the different
configurations evaluated in this section. The three first
configurations aim at evaluating the impact of the
background-error-covariance matrix, while the last two configurations
focus on the bias correction.</p>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Table 3</label><caption><p id="d1e2257">List of 1D-Var experiments.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><?xmltex \begin{scaleboxenv}{.91}[.91]?><oasis:tgroup cols="3">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="left"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Experiment</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Description</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Bias correction (BC)</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">CTRL</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Climatological <inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">BC from AROME O-B monitoring</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">computed from the AROME EDA with</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">cross-covariances between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Config1:</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Climatological <inline-formula><mml:math id="M121" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">BC from AROME O-B monitoring</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Bclim NO CROSS CORR</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">computed from the AROME EDA</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">without cross-covariances between <inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Config2:</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Cross-correlated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">fog</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix if visi_10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">BC from AROME O-B monitoring</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Bflow dependent</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M128" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> without cross-correlations for visi_10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M129" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M130" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M131" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"/>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Config3: Bflow dependent</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Cross-correlated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M132" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">fog</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix if visi_10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M133" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M134" display="inline"><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M135" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">BC from AROME O-B monitoring</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">no BC 54–58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M136" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M137" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> without cross-correlations for visi_10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M138" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M139" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M140" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">for channels 22–53.86 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M141" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>;</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">no BC for channels 54.54 to 58 GHz</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">Config4: Bflow dependent</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">Cross-correlated <inline-formula><mml:math id="M142" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">fog</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix if visi_10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M143" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M144" display="inline"><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M145" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">BC from AROME O-B monitoring</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">BC <inline-formula><mml:math id="M146" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> K</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M147" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> without cross-correlations for visi_10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M148" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M149" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M150" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">based on all clear-sky profiles with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M151" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">500</mml:mn><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ground</mml:mi></mml:msub><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M152" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup><?xmltex \end{scaleboxenv}?></oasis:table></table-wrap>

<?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><table-wrap id="Ch1.T4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Table 4</label><caption><p id="d1e2746">Reduction in the RMSE with respect to tower measurements after the 1D-Var analysis (RMSE<inline-formula><mml:math id="M153" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>) compared to the background (RMSE<inline-formula><mml:math id="M154" display="inline"><mml:msub><mml:mi/><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math></inline-formula>) for all weather conditions (upper part) or only fog events (lower part): <inline-formula><mml:math id="M155" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>ER</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="false"><mml:mfrac style="text"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext>RMSE</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext>RMSE</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mi>x</mml:mi><mml:mi>b</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (%).
Statistics performed on temperature (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M156" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, K) and specific humidity (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M157" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">spec</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M158" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) at 50 and 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M159" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude.</p></caption><oasis:table frame="topbot"><oasis:tgroup cols="6">
     <oasis:colspec colnum="1" colname="col1" align="left"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="2" colname="col2" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="3" colname="col3" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="4" colname="col4" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="5" colname="col5" align="right"/>
     <oasis:colspec colnum="6" colname="col6" align="right"/>
     <oasis:thead>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1">ER</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry rowsep="1" namest="col2" nameend="col6" align="center">1D-VAR </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">CTRL: <inline-formula><mml:math id="M160" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">Config1: <inline-formula><mml:math id="M161" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">Config2: <inline-formula><mml:math id="M162" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">fog</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M163" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">Config3: <inline-formula><mml:math id="M164" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">fog</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M165" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">Config4: <inline-formula><mml:math id="M166" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">fog</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M167" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mtext><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">clim</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">cross-corr.</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">no cross-corr.</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"/>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">no BC 56–58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M168" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">BC <inline-formula><mml:math id="M169" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>T</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M170" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:thead>
     <oasis:tbody>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col6">All conditions except fog (statistics on 2534 profiles) </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M171" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M172" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">42</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">57</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">54</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M173" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M174" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">40</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">40</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">40</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">50</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">50</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M175" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">spec</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M176" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M177" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>4</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.2</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.3</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M178" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">spec</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M179" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M180" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>7</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">0.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">0.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">0.1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">0.1</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row rowsep="1">
         <oasis:entry namest="col1" nameend="col6">Fog cases (statistics on 351 profiles) </oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M181" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M182" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">37</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">37</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">34</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">50</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">44</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M183" display="inline"><mml:mi>T</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M184" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2">21</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3">21</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">24</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">32</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">32</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M185" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">spec</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M186" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M187" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>7</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M188" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>1</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M189" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>5</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">15</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">6</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
       <oasis:row>
         <oasis:entry colname="col1"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M190" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>Q</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">spec</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M191" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col2"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M192" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>20</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col3"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M193" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>3</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col4">21</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col5">20</oasis:entry>
         <oasis:entry colname="col6">21</oasis:entry>
       </oasis:row>
     </oasis:tbody>
   </oasis:tgroup></oasis:table></table-wrap>

<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2.SSS1">
  <label>3.2.1</label><title>Sensitivity to the background-error-covariance matrix</title>
      <p id="d1e3395">In order to evaluate the impact of the background-error-covariance
matrix, three experiments have been designed. The CTRL run mimics the
configuration of the operational AROME 3D-Var data assimilation system
with a climatological <inline-formula><mml:math id="M194" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix, taking into account
cross-correlations between temperature and specific humidity. As
cross-covariances highly depend on the weather conditions
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx20 bib1.bibx32" id="paren.48"/> and the use of fixed covariances is not
optimal when dealing with different atmospheric scenarios, Config1
aims at evaluating the impact of the cross-correlations between
temperature and humidity on the retrievals.  To this end, Config1
corresponds to the same configuration but removing the
cross-correlations between temperature and specific humidity. It can
be noted that this approach is still used in various 3D/4D-Var
operational schemes <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx1" id="paren.49"/>. Config2 mimics the use of a
flow-dependent <inline-formula><mml:math id="M195" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix during fog conditions only with a
fully correlated fog-specific <inline-formula><mml:math id="M196" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix during fog events
but a non-correlated climatological <bold>B</bold> matrix for all
other weather conditions. For these three configurations, the
bias correction based on clear-sky O-B monitoring is applied to the
raw BT measurements.</p>
      <p id="d1e3429">The worst results are obtained with the CTRL configuration, which
considers a climatological <bold>B</bold> matrix, taking into account
cross-correlations between temperature and humidity. With this
configuration, the specific-humidity RMSE with respect to tower
measurements is degraded by up to 20 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M197" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (respectively
7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M198" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) at 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M199" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude during fog conditions
(respectively all weather conditions). This demonstrates the
importance of the <bold>B</bold> matrix cross-correlations on 1D-Var
accuracy and particularly in the case of observations with low
information content on the vertical structure (as MWRs are mainly
sensitive to the total column water vapour content due to vertically
quasi-constant weighting functions). The humidity profile degradation
is significantly reduced to less than 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M200" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> thanks to the use
of a block diagonal <bold>B</bold> matrix in Config1.  Humidity profiles
are finally improved by up to 21 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M201" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in RMSE at 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M202" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
during fog conditions with the use of a specific fog <bold>B</bold>
matrix adapted to the meteorological conditions.
Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/> confirms that the best configuration in terms of
<bold>B</bold> matrix corresponds to Config2 compared to the CTRL
configuration. In fact, the use of a climatological <bold>B</bold>
matrix with cross-correlations degrades both temperature and humidity
retrievals but more significantly specific humidity up to
4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M203" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.  Overall, these results confirm that, for MWRs,
humidity increments in the lowest levels are significantly driven by
the cross-correlations between temperature and humidity. These
correlations (sign and amplitude) being highly dependent on the
weather conditions, the <bold>B</bold> matrix should ideally be updated
for each profile. When it is not possible, the use of a block diagonal
<bold>B</bold> matrix might be preferable to avoid degradation in the
retrievals due to inaccurate cross-correlations. This result is in
line with the study of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx14" id="text.50"/>, which showed that, when
humidity is less adequately observed than temperature, it is more
accurate to neglect humidity–temperature error
covariances. However, when an adapted flow-dependent <bold>B</bold>
matrix is used,<?pagebreak page6599?> the specific-humidity analysis is improved. In the
future, the use of ensemble data assimilation schemes should enable
deriving optimal <bold>B</bold> matrices evolving in time and space to
be consistent with the weather conditions in order to optimize
specific-humidity retrievals.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e3528">Vertical profiles of <bold>(a)</bold> temperature and <bold>(b)</bold> specific-humidity bias (solid line) and root-mean-square errors (dashed lines) of 1D-Var retrievals (coloured lines) and AROME backgrounds (black line) against 21 radiosondes launched during IOPs: 1D-Var retrievals from AROME 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M204" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecasts with bias correction and a cross-correlated climatological <inline-formula><mml:math id="M205" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix (CTRL, magenta), with bias correction and a cross-correlated dedicated fog <inline-formula><mml:math id="M206" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix (Config2, blue), with bias correction except channels 11–14 and a cross-correlated dedicated fog <inline-formula><mml:math id="M207" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix (Config3, red), without any bias correction and a cross-correlated dedicated fog <inline-formula><mml:math id="M208" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="bold">B</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> matrix (cyan).</p></caption>
            <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f03.png"/>

          </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2.SSS2">
  <label>3.2.2</label><title>Sensitivity to the bias correction applied on opaque channels</title>
      <p id="d1e3588">One other source of errors in the lowest levels could come from the
bias correction applied on the most opaque channels. In fact, the bias
correction has been inferred from differences with respect to the
AROME model which is known for larger errors in the boundary layer
below 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M209" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx27 bib1.bibx28" id="paren.51"/>. Two
additional configurations have thus been designed to evaluate the
impact of the bias correction applied on raw measurements. Config3 is
similar to Config2 except that the bias correction is not applied on
the last four most opaque channels (54–58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M210" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> range). Config4
is similar to Config2 except that the bias correction applied to all
channels is based on statistics of O-B departures made on clear-sky
profiles with a temperature gradient between 500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M211" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude
and surface smaller than 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M212" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Table <xref ref-type="table" rid="Ch1.T4"/> shows that
1D-Var retrievals are already improved with Config4 in fog
conditions. Consequently, removing larger model errors during very
stable conditions in the O-B monitoring leads to an improved
estimation of the bias correction. The best scores are finally
obtained with Config3 with improved temperature retrievals by
15 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M213" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M214" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.  Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/> confirms that
if the bias correction based on the AROME monitoring is applied to the
54–58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M215" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">GHz</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> channels, a significant degradation in the
temperature retrievals is observed in the first
500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M216" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Removing the<?pagebreak page6600?> bias correction applied to transparent
channels causes a significant degradation of the specific-humidity
retrievals above 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M217" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude.  This result demonstrates
that, even though the bias correction of MWR BT measurements can be
computed from AROME short-term forecasts for transparent channels,
this method is not optimal for opaque channels without a thorough
screening of the O-B innovations. In fact, the bias correction of
opaque channels depends on the accuracy of the forecast model within
the boundary layer, which is known to be degraded during stable
conditions. Similar conclusions are found in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx28" id="text.52"/>,
despite the larger period of O-B monitoring (6 months instead of
2 months) and a less complex terrain.</p>
      <p id="d1e3675">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F3"/> finally shows that the best performance is
obtained with Config3 through the whole atmospheric column (both for
temperature and humidity).  For temperature, with this best
configuration, RMSE is smaller than 0.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M218" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> within the fog layer
and below 1.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M219" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> when considering the whole atmospheric profile up
to 6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M220" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude. The 1D-Var analysis outperforms
the background in the first 800 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M221" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> with a maximum improvement
observed within the fog layer (RMSE decreased from 2.2 to
0.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M222" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at 75 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M223" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). As expected, most of the information
from the MWR observations are located below 2000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M224" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and mainly
below 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M225" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.  For humidity, RMSE accuracies are less than
1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M226" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for the best scenario. Most of the improvement
brought to the background is located below 3000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M227" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> with a
maximum RMSE decrease reaching 0.2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M228" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at 75 and
1800 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M229" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Config3 is used in the following sections.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Thin radiative fog case study</title>
      <p id="d1e3806">This section focuses on a thin radiative fog case observed on 28 October 2016. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F4"/> shows the cloud
base height retrieved from a CL31 ceilometer (top panel), the
visibility measurements on the instrumented tower at 10 and
120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M230" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude (blue and green lines, respectively, middle
panel), and the 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M231" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> AROME forecasts of liquid water
content (LWC) for the same day (bottom panel). During the whole
period, fog is only observed at 10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M232" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude during
40 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M233" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">min</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at midnight and then during 4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M234" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from 05:00 to
09:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M235" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. A stratus cloud is then observed from 10:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M236" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
until midnight with a cloud base height between 300 and 500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M237" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.
The AROME backgrounds simulate a continuous thick fog event from 00:00 to
13:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M238" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which is then lifted until 15:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M239" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> into a
stratus cloud at 500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M240" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude. The stratus cloud is then
dissipated to appear again after 20:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M241" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. In this example,
two main deficiencies in the AROME 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M242" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecasts are observed:
a temporally longer and vertically thicker fog event and the erroneous
dissipation of the stratus cloud between 15:00 and 20:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M243" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e3927"><bold>(a)</bold> Cloud base height (m) derived from the CL31 ceilometer measurements; <bold>(b)</bold> visibility at 10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M244" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (blue) and 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M245" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (green line); <bold>(c)</bold> AROME 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M246" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecasts of liquid water content (in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M247" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) on 28 October 2016.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=227.622047pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f04.png"/>

      </fig>

      <?pagebreak page6601?><p id="d1e3986">Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F5"/> compares the time series of temperature
profiles (top panels) and specific-humidity (bottom panels) forecast
by AROME (left panels) and retrieved with the 1D-Var scheme using the
optimal configuration. We can note the large temperature increment by
up to 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M248" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from 00:00 to 12:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M249" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> essentially in the
first 250 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M250" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after 1D-Var is applied; this is the period when
the model simulates a thick fog event not confirmed by the
observations. This is followed by a temperature cooling within
2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M251" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> during the stratus cloud (16:00 to 24:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M252" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). The
specific humidity is only modified during the fog event (05:00 to
09:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M253" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) with an increase of 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M254" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the
first 1500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M255" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e4068">Time series of temperature profiles <bold>(a, b)</bold> and specific-humidity <bold>(c, d)</bold> forecast by AROME <bold>(a, c)</bold> and retrieved with the 1D-Var scheme with the optimal configuration (Config3, <bold>b, d</bold>) on 28 October 2016.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f05.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e4089">In order to quantify the accuracy of the 1D-Var increments in this specific fog case, Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F6"/> evaluates the
corresponding diurnal evolution of temperature, specific humidity and
relative humidity at 50 and 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M256" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude. A large
underestimation of the temperature by 4 to 6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M257" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is observed in
the AROME forecasts by night until 13:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M258" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. AROME forecasts
are also found to be too warm by 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M259" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after
18:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M260" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The assimilation of MWR brightness temperatures in
a 1D context greatly improves the model background (temperature)
during the night-time fog event with temperature errors smaller than
2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M261" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after assimilation. The 1D-Var retrievals almost perfectly
fit the in situ observations after 13:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M262" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for temperature
(both at 50 and 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M263" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F6"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e4161">Diurnal evolution of temperature <bold>(a, b)</bold>, specific humidity <bold>(c, d)</bold> and relative humidity <bold>(e, f)</bold> forecast by AROME (red), measured by weather station (black) and retrieved by the 1D-Var algorithm (blue) on 28 October 2016.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=241.848425pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f06.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e4179">In terms of specific humidity, AROME tends to underestimate the
specific humidity at night-time probably due to an overestimation of
the saturation.  Indeed, as the fog layer was thicker in AROME than
in the observations, we believe the model converts too much water
vapour into liquid erroneously, which makes it underestimate specific
humidity. On the contrary, the specific humidity is overestimated in
the afternoon. After 1D assimilation of MWR measurements, specific
humidity is nearly identical to the AROME forecasts except during the
longest fog event (between 04:00 and 09:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M264" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) where the 1D
analysis is closer to the tower measurements than the background. This
is likely due to the use of the cross-correlated fog <bold>B</bold>
matrix under these conditions as opposite to the use of a block
diagonal <bold>B</bold> matrix when fog is not observed. Most of the
model increment is thus produced by the <bold>B</bold> matrix
cross-covariances. Background errors are reduced from 0.5 to
0.1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M265" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.  Although closer to the in situ observations,
1D-Var retrievals slightly overestimate specific humidity between
04:00 and 09:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M266" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. This is most likely due to over-estimated
positive cross-correlations between temperature and humidity in the
<bold>B</bold> matrix. In terms of relative humidity, the temperature
warming by night leads to the effect that the fog layer is not
saturated any more in agreement with the tower in situ
measurements. However, this field is degraded after
13:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M267" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. In fact, the 1D-Var scheme correctly reduces the
temperature but is not able to decrease the specific humidity. The
relative humidity is thus wrongly increased by the 1D-Var analysis.</p>
      <p id="d1e4236">In view of the future inclusion of hydrometeors in the data
assimilation control variables, the information brought by MWRs to the
liquid water path (LWP) could also be very
valuable. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F7"/> shows the time series of LWP
forecast by AROME, retrieved through the 1D-Var and retrieved from a
quadratic regression applied on BT measurements. It can be seen that
the AROME model clearly overestimates the fog LWP with a maximum
reaching 90 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M268" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at 07:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M269" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. This value,
however, decreased down to 25 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M270" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after the 1D
assimilation of MWR brightness temperatures. During the period when
the model fails to simulate the stratus cloud, the LWP is
significantly increased in the 1D-Var analysis with values between 30
and 80 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M271" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> even if the background profile has no cloud
layer between 14:00 and 20:00 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M272" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">UTC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. These LWP modifications
brought by the 1D-Var are consistent with the in situ observations on
the instrumented tower as well as ceilometer observations.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d1e4312">Time series of liquid water path forecast by AROME (red), retrieved by the 1D-Var algorithm (blue) or retrieved from the MWR alone through a quadratic regression (magenta) on 28 October 2016.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=241.848425pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f07.png"/>

      </fig>

</sec>
<?pagebreak page6602?><sec id="Ch1.S5">
  <label>5</label><title>The 6-month statistics</title>
      <p id="d1e4330">While the previous section focuses on an extreme fog case, this
section aims at more general conclusions on the expected impact of MWR
BTs assimilation on AROME analysis. To this end, a statistical
evaluation of the expected model increments (analysis minus background
differences) after assimilating MWR measurements has been conducted
using the tower measurements during the 6-month period. The 1D-Var
retrievals have been performed using the optimal configuration
described in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS2"/>.  A total of 351 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M273" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
of fog (rain events have been removed) could be observed with the MWR.
In order to evaluate the performance of the AROME background profiles
(1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M274" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecast) to accurately forecast fog events, statistics
based on the hit ratio (HR), false alarm rate (FAR), frequency bias
index (FBI) and critical success index (CSI) were computed. If GD (good detection)
is the number of fog profiles well detected, ND (not detected) is the number of
undetected fog profiles and FA is the number of false alarms, then these scores
are defined by

              <disp-formula specific-use="align" content-type="numbered"><mml:math id="M275" display="block"><mml:mtable displaystyle="true"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mtext>HR</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mtext>GD</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>GD</mml:mtext><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mtext>ND</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mtext>FAR</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mtext>FA</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>GD</mml:mtext><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mtext>FA</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/><mml:mtext>FBI</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>GD</mml:mtext><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mtext>FA</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>GD</mml:mtext><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mtext>ND</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mlabeledtr id="Ch1.E1"><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>1</mml:mtext></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true" class="stylechange"/></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle class="stylechange" displaystyle="true"/><mml:mtext>CSI</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mtext>GD</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>GD</mml:mtext><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mtext>ND</mml:mtext><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mtext>FA</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mlabeledtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <?pagebreak page6603?><p id="d1e4460">To detect fog profiles in the model space, a new visibility diagnosis
specifically developed for the AROME model has been used
(Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers, personal communication, July 2020).  In this new diagnosis, the visibility is directly deduced
from the liquid water content at ground. It was computed through a
statistical regression between hourly maximum of liquid water content
forecast by AROME and observed minimum of visibility on 100 ground
stations during 5 months.  A hit ratio of 73 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M276" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and a
false alarm rate of 58 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M277" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> was found. A FBI of 1.77 means that
the AROME background profiles tend to forecast too many fog
events. CSI equal to 0.35 means that only 35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M278" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of fog events
(observed and/or predicted) are correctly forecast by the model. These
statistics emphasize that quite large errors are observed in the AROME
1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M279" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forecasts of fog with an excessive number of false
alarms. In order to evaluate the potential benefit of MWR observations
to adjust the AROME background profiles, the statistical study of
model increments is split between the good detections, missed fog
profiles and false alarms. Firstly, the frequency distributions of
differences of 1D-Var analysis and background with tower measurements
at 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M280" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are displayed in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F8"/> (both for
temperature and specific humidity). For temperature and for all
subsets, the distributions of 1D-Var analysis errors are more centred
and more symmetric compared to the background-error
distributions. Thus, the largest background errors (above 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M281" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
in absolute values) are successfully corrected by the 1D-Var analysis.
Background error distributions also present a larger tail towards
negative values with a secondary peak centred around <inline-formula><mml:math id="M282" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M283" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
in the case of false alarms and to a smaller extent in the case of
good fog detections. The largest temperature improvement is observed
in the case of false alarms with only 35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M284" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the background
errors being within <inline-formula><mml:math id="M285" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.5 to 0.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M286" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which is against 69 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M287" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for
the analysis. RMSEs with respect to tower measurements are also
significantly improved with values between 1.3 and 1.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M288" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in
the background against 0.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M289" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the analysis.  The frequency
distribution of specific humidity errors for 1D-Var analysis and
background are close, with similar bias and RMSE for good detections
and false alarms. A slight degradation is observed for missed fog
detections with a RMSE of 0.33 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M290" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the analysis
against 0.25 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M291" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the background. Overall, the impact
on humidity is less evident than on temperature at 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M292" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
altitude.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F8" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{8}?><label>Figure 8</label><caption><p id="d1e4622"> Frequency distribution of 1D-Var analyses (orange) and background (blue) differences compared to tower measurements for temperature <bold>(a–c)</bold> and specific humidity <bold>(d–f)</bold> at 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M293" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude. Statistics performed over 255 profiles of good fog detection <bold>(a, d)</bold>, 95 profiles of undetected fog <bold>(b, e)</bold> and 368 profiles of false alarms <bold>(c, f)</bold>.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f08.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e4656">To get a vertical perspective, Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F9"/> shows the
profiles of the frequency distribution of analysis minus background
differences. As more than 90 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M294" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the water vapour increments
are within 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M295" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> up to 1500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M296" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude, only
the impact on temperature is discussed. For each vertical bin, the
frequency of the temperature increments within a given range of values
is shown.  The frequency distribution of 1D-Var increments has been
separated between cases of correct fog detection, missed fog and false
alarms. For all of the dataset, most of the temperature analysis increments
are observed below 750 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M297" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and span the range <inline-formula><mml:math id="M298" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>5 to
5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M299" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The largest increments are observed between 100 and
300 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M300" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude for which around 20 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M301" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the analysis
minus background differences are larger than 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M302" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in absolute
values. We can note significant<?pagebreak page6604?> differences in the shape of the
increment distributions depending on the forecast score. While the
distribution of good detections is quite symmetric, it is not the case
for missed fog profiles and false alarm distributions. In the case of
missed fog events, the distribution is negatively skewed close to the
ground, whereas it is positively skewed above 100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M303" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
altitude. This asymmetry means that the largest analysis increments in
magnitude tend to decrease the temperature close to the ground and
increase the temperature above 100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M304" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Consequently, we can
expect 1D-Var analyses to increase the atmospheric stability in the
first 150 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M305" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which is key for fog formation. In the case of
false alarms, the distribution is positively skewed for all vertical
levels. This asymmetry means that the largest analysis increments,
though less frequent in the distribution, occur when the AROME
forecasts tend to significantly overestimate the temperature
cooling. By limiting the temperature cooling, the 1D-Var analyses
might limit the erroneous saturation leading to false alarms in the
background.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F9" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{9}?><label>Figure 9</label><caption><p id="d1e4769">Vertical profiles of the frequency distribution
of temperature increments (analysis minus background differences). Statistics
performed over 255 profiles of good fog detection <bold>(a)</bold>, 95 profiles of undetected fog <bold>(b)</bold> and 368 profiles of false alarms
<bold>(c)</bold>.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f09.png"/>

      </fig>

      <?pagebreak page6605?><p id="d1e4787">The additional value of MWR data for NWP forecasts and process studies is
in the LWP product. In fact, MWR is one of the most reliable sources
for this variable <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx11" id="paren.53"/>, which is key for better
understanding the microphysics of fog life cycle and limiting the
forecast spin-up (i.e. the unbalance of thermodynamic profiles with
microphysical variables during the analysis). In fact, as
hydrometeors are currently not included in the control variables of
most operational variational data assimilation schemes; these fields
are kept unchanged during the analysis. Thus, the analysed hydrometeor
fields correspond to the previous background. Consequently, in the
following statistics, the background values of LWP correspond in fact
to the LWP in the operational AROME analysis. These fields are then
modified according to the updated temperature and humidity analyses in
the first time steps of the forecast through the model physics.  The
statistical study performed here is also useful to evaluate the
expected impact on the AROME analyses if MWR observations were
assimilated and the LWP included in the control variables. To this
end, Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F10"/> investigates the frequency distribution of
LWP increments split by forecast skill (good detections, undetected
fog, false alarms). Firstly, we can note that the LWP increments are
higher than 50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M306" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in absolute values for approximately
50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M307" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of good detections and missed fog profiles and
30 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M308" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of false alarms. During false alarms, 95 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M309" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of
the background LWP values are below 20 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M310" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (not shown),
which is close to the MWR sensitivity which might explain smaller
1D-Var increments during false alarms. The mean increment is the
highest in the case of missed fog events (57 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M311" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) and
the smallest in the case of false alarms (15 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M312" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). It is
important to note that during false alarms, the LWP increment might be
positive due to the presence of cloud layers, though we would expect
the 1D-Var analysis to decrease the LWP within the fog layer. If we
restrict the statistics to false alarms without cloud aloft, the mean
increment is reduced to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M313" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M314" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. As expected, large
positive increments occur more often in fog cases undetected by AROME
with 47 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M315" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the distribution showing increments above
50 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M316" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> against 35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M317" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in good detections and
22 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M318" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in false alarms (8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M319" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for false alarms without
cloud layers aloft).  To further investigate the LWP increments and
retrieved values, more in situ data are necessary, e.g. from the cloud
droplet probe mounted on the tethered balloon or cloud radar
measurements. However, the lack of cloud radar measurements to
differentiate the LWP within the fog layer and cloud aloft makes this
evaluation complex. Too few cases during which MWR observations were
co-located with an entire sounding of the fog layer with the tethered
balloon have been sampled to make an independent evaluation of this
product. This is why we use the LWP derived from the MWR alone through
a quadratic regression as a reference. The expected accuracy of this
product is 15 to 20 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M320" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> according to
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx11" id="text.54"/>. To this end, Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/> shows the
scatterplot between the LWP retrieved with the MWR alone (through
multichannel regressions provided by the manufacturer) and the 1D-Var
analyses or background profiles (left panel). We can note the large
improvement in correlation between the LWP forecast by the background
(0.72) versus the 1D-Var analysis (0.98) with respect to the MWR
multichannel retrieval. This is of course expected as the 1D-Var
minimization tends to get closer to the MWR brightness temperatures
which are also used in the multichannel retrieval. However, this
evaluation is a good sanity check, showing the good behaviour of the
1D-Var algorithm and its capability to extract the information from
the observation even with very large errors in the first-guess
background profiles. The mean error of the AROME LWP is
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M321" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>49 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M322" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and is reduced to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M323" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M324" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after
1D assimilation. The root-mean-square error is significantly reduced
from 102 to 27 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M325" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F10" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{10}?><label>Figure 10</label><caption><p id="d1e5053"> Frequency distributions of 1D-Var LWP  increments (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M326" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Statistics performed over 255 profiles of good fog detection <bold>(a)</bold>, 95 profiles of undetected fog <bold>(b)</bold> and 368 profiles of false alarms <bold>(c)</bold>.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f10.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e5088">The same evaluation has been carried out on the IWV
(Figs. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F11"/> and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>). Since MWRs are more
sensitive to column integral than vertical distribution, a more
significant impact is expected on IWV than specific humidity
profiles. The IWV increments span from <inline-formula><mml:math id="M327" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>4 to 4 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M328" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>,
which correspond to a change in the background IWV of up to
30 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M329" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The distribution of IWV increments is positively skewed
for correct fog detection, meaning that the largest increments in
magnitude are observed when the background underestimates the
integrated water vapour content. On the contrary, it is
negatively skewed for missed fog profiles, meaning that the largest
increments occur when the model overestimates the integrated water
vapour content. It is more symmetric in the case of false alarms. The
correlation coefficient with respect to the MWR multichannel
retrieval (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F12"/>) is slightly increased from 0.97
to 1. The RMSE is improved from 1.30 to 0.71 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M330" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The
impact of MWR observations is thus positive on IWV, though the good
quality of AROME humidity forecast leaves little room for
improvement. This could be explained by the assimilation of
observations sensitive to the total column water vapour like Global
Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenith total delay. Further
investigation on multiple sites would be needed to confirm this
hypothesis.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F11" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{11}?><label>Figure 11</label><caption><p id="d1e5150"> Frequency distributions of 1D-Var IWV  increments (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M331" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). Statistics performed over 255 profiles of good fog detection <bold>(a)</bold>, 95 profiles of undetected fog <bold>(b)</bold> and 368 profiles of false alarms <bold>(c)</bold>.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=497.923228pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f11.png"/>

      </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F12" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{12}?><label>Figure 12</label><caption><p id="d1e5187"> Scatterplot between a multichannel regression based on MWR observations (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M332" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> axis) and the background forecast by AROME (red dots) or the 1D-Var analysis (blue dots) for LWP <bold>(a)</bold> and IWV <bold>(b)</bold>. Statistics performed over 351 observed fog profiles.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f12.png"/>

      </fig>

      <?pagebreak page6606?><p id="d1e5209">The next natural step of this study would be to calculate updated
scores of fog detections with the new 1D-Var analyses compared to the
background profiles. However, forecast scores are only based on the
LWC at ground, whereas the 1D-Var works on the liquid water path
without information on the cloud vertical structure. During false
alarms, conclusions on the impact on forecast scores are complexified
by the presence of cloud layers above fog in a majority of false
alarms, which can cause an increase in LWC at ground. As for the hit
ratio, it is increased from 73 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M333" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the background to
81 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M334" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the analysis. The rate of missed fog events is also
decreased from 27 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M335" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the background to 19 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M336" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the
1D-Var analysis. However, as this evaluation is only based on the LWC
change at the ground, it is necessary to evaluate the impact of the
new temperature and humidity fields on the LWC after a few time steps
of forecasts, but this is beyond the scope of this paper. This
investigation into the forecast impact will be studied in the future
within the framework of the SOFOG3D experiment
(Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S6"/>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S6">
  <label>6</label><title>A regional-scale MWR network for fog process studies: the SOFOG3D
experiment</title>
      <p id="d1e5254">This study has proved MWRs to be potential good candidates to be
assimilated into current mesoscale models with a special focus on fog
forecast improvement. However, our conclusions are currently limited
by the small dataset (only one winter at one site) and the lack of
impact studies on fog forecast. Although, a positive impact is
expected on the analysis of the ABL temperature profile and the LWP
and, to a smaller extent, to the IWV; the next step will be to
quantify the impact of a more accurate initial state on fog forecast
capability. Among the huge number of observations currently
assimilated into operational models, the assimilation of only one MWR
unit would probably not be efficient to effectively constrain the
boundary layer in the model analysis and to keep the valuable
information brought by this local observation over the forecast
range. In order to go further into this evaluation, the deployment of a
dense network of MWRs is necessary to perform a data assimilation
study into the operational AROME 3D-Var assimilation system. Thanks to
the strong European collaboration built in the framework of the COST
Action TOPROF (<uri>https://www.cost.eu/actions/ES1303/#tabs|Name:overview</uri>,
last access: 17 November 2020),
pursued by the COST Action PROBE (PROfiling the atmospheric Boundary layer at European scale; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="altparen.55"/>), an unprecedented
regional-scale network of eight MWR units has been deployed in the south-west of France during the period October 2019 to April 2020. This work
will serve the data assimilation experiment, fog process studies and
model evaluation of the<?pagebreak page6607?> international SOFOG3D (SOuth FOGs 3D
experiment for fog processes study) experiment led by
Météo-France. Figure <xref ref-type="fig" rid="Ch1.F13"/> shows the domain of the
dedicated 500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M337" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> horizontal resolution AROME version in test
for evaluation during SOFOG3D and the location of the eight MWR units
deployed for the experiment. MWR locations have been chosen for an
homogeneous spread over the AROME domain at sites known for their high
frequency of fog occurrence. An increased density of MWRs is found at
the super-site with two co-located MWRs and a third humidity profiler
deployed approximately 7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M338" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> away from the super-site to
document the impact of surface heterogeneities on fog
characteristics. The methodology introduced in this paper will be
extended to the eight MWRs deployed during SOFOG3D. This large dataset
will help with quantifying the spatio-temporal variability of fog
parameters (thermodynamics and microphysics) between the different
sites; better understand the main processes playing a role in fog
formation, dissipation, and development; and run real data assimilation
experiments using the operational 3D-Var assimilation scheme of the
AROME model to quantify the expected fog forecast improvement thanks
to ground-based MWRs.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F13" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{13}?><label>Figure 13</label><caption><p id="d1e5283"> Surface geopotential and domain of the AROME 500m dedicated to the SOFOG3D experiment. Locations of the MWR sites are shown with the filled circles (red indicate temperature and humidity profilers, yellow only humidity retrievals and cyan only temperature retrievals.) </p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/6593/2020/amt-13-6593-2020-f13.png"/>

      </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S7" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>7</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <?pagebreak page6608?><p id="d1e5300">In this study, the expected benefit of ground-based MWRs on NWP
analyses during fog conditions has been investigated with a 1D-Var
technique. Temperature, humidity and LWP have been retrieved through
the optimal combination of short-term forecasts and MWRs brightness
temperatures. In this study, a new retrieval algorithm, combining the
NWPSAF 1D-Var and the fast radiative transfer model RTTOV-gb, has been
evaluated on a 6-month period spanning 351 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M339" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">h</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of fog
conditions. The first part of this work aimed at deriving an optimal
background-error-covariance matrix for fog conditions with the use of
the newly developed AROME EDA. Similarly to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx31" id="text.56"/>,
background-error standard deviations were found to be approximately
40 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M340" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> larger within the first 250 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M341" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for temperature
compared to a commonly used climatological <bold>B</bold> matrix. For
specific humidity, similar standard deviations were observed. Most of
the differences between a climatological <bold>B</bold> matrix and a fog
<bold>B</bold> matrix were observed in the cross-correlations between
temperature and specific humidity, with a strong positive coupling
within the fog layer and uncoupling between the fog layer and
atmospheric layers above. The impact of the <bold>B</bold> matrix and
bias correction has been investigated through a statistical evaluation
of the retrieval accuracy with respect to the in situ measurements on
the instrumented tower at 50 and 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M342" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude. The optimal
configuration has been defined through the definition of the error
reduction brought by the analysis over the background for each
variable (temperature and specific humidity) and each altitude. The
best scenario mimics the use of a “flow-dependent” <bold>B</bold> matrix
by using a cross-correlated fog <bold>B</bold> matrix when fog is detected
by visibility measurements and an uncorrelated climatological
<bold>B</bold> matrix during the other conditions. The retrievals of
specific humidity at 120 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M343" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude are the most impacted:
contrary to the significant degradation of the background by around
20 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M344" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> with a suboptimal <bold>B</bold> matrix, an improvement of
21 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M345" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of the background is obtained with an optimal <bold>B</bold>
matrix. This demonstrates the crucial role of the B matrix
cross-correlations when assimilating observations with low information
content on the vertical structure. Consequently, the ongoing
development of a 3D-EnVar scheme for the AROME model
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34" id="paren.57"/> is a necessary step to optimally assimilate MWR
observations into the AROME model. The use of a static bias correction
based on the monitoring of observation minus background innovations
was also evaluated. Biases of less than 0.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M346" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> were observed
for K-band and opaque V-band channels and up to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M347" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>4.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M348" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for
the most transparent V-band channels. The found bias is similar to
previous studies; its correction applied to BT measurements improves
humidity retrievals above 2000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M349" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> but degrades temperature
retrievals in the first 200 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M350" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. This degradation is most likely
due to well-known larger model errors in the boundary layer during
stable conditions, which are incorrectly included in the
bias correction. Restricting the computation of the bias correction to
clear-sky unstable conditions was found to remove most of the
degradation. Overall, with the best configuration (flow-dependent fog
<bold>B</bold> matrix and no bias correction for most opaque channels),
temperature and humidity profiles could be retrieved with RMSE below
1.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M351" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M352" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> up to 6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M353" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">km</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the
troposphere.</p>
      <p id="d1e5471">A thin radiative fog sampled during the first IOP of the experiment
was then described. For this specific case, the AROME model was found
to simulate a temporally longer and vertically thicker fog event and
is not able to maintain the stratus cloud in the afternoon. After 1D
assimilation of MWR observations, a large warming up to 5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M354" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is
observed within the first 500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M355" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> during the fog event
associated with an increase in specific humidity and a decrease of LWP
by 40 to 70 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M356" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> consistent with in situ measurements
showing the large impact brought by MWR observations to modify the
initial state of the model in fog conditions.</p>
      <p id="d1e5507">Finally, a statistical evaluation of the expected model increments
after assimilating MWR measurements has been conducted using tower
measurements. Large forecast errors were observed in the AROME
backgrounds with a tendency to overestimate the presence of
fog. During missed fog profiles, 1D-Var increments pull towards lower
temperatures close to the ground and higher temperatures above
100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M357" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> altitude, i.e. higher atmospheric stability. The largest
analysis increments and background errors are observed during false
alarms when the AROME forecasts tend to significantly overestimate the
temperature cooling. Overall, RMSE values from 1.3 to 1.9 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M358" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
are observed in the background against 0.6 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M359" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">K</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the
analysis. For specific humidity, analysis increments are small and
below 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M360" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> within the fog layer. On the contrary, a
large impact has been found on the LWP with increments up to
200 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M361" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">g</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in extreme missed fog events. A larger impact
was found on the IWV than the humidity profile with a RMSE with
respect to tower measurements that decreased from 1.3 to
0.7 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M362" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> during observed fog profiles. However, it was
noted that the AROME backgrounds are more accurate for the IWV compared
to temperature and LWP, which leaves less chances for improvement.</p>
      <p id="d1e5586">Using for the first time the RTTOV-gb fast radiative transfer model,
this study investigated the impact of assimilating MWR observations in
the AROME model during fog conditions. This evaluation, previously
limited to temperature profiles only, was extended to humidity and
LWP. Promising results are shown, with significant positive impact on
temperature and LWP and small but slightly positive impact on
humidity. In order to confirm the results obtained in a 1D-Var
framework, the next step is now to assimilate a real network of
ground-based MWRs through a 3D-Var or 3D-EnVar data assimilation
scheme. Following the recommendations of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="text.58"/> and
thanks to the strong European collaboration built within the TOPROF and
PROBE COST Actions, eight MWRs have been deployed in the south-west<?pagebreak page6609?> of
France from October 2019 to April 2020 in the context of the
international fog campaign SOFOG3D. The locations of the MWR units
have been chosen to optimize their impact in the model specifically
for fog forecast evaluation. A 1D-Var plus 3D-EnVar approach will be
used to assimilate profiles retrieved through the 1D-Var algorithm
presented here, taking the most out of the lessons learnt in this
work.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="dataavailability"><title>Data availability</title>

      <p id="d1e5596">AROME forecasts are available on request to pauline.martinet@meteo.fr. Instrumental data are available on request to frederic.burnet@meteo.fr.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e5602">PM supervised the MWR deployment during the field experiment, processed all the data, led the scientific analysis and wrote the paper. DC participated in the development of the 1D-Var algorithm and scientific analysis of the results. FB supervised the field experiment and participated in the scientific analysis of the results. VU was in charge of the technical deployment of the MWR during the experiment. BM developed and provided the support for the software used to derive background-error-covariance matrices from ensemble data assimilation. YM provided the AROME ensemble data assimilation outputs to compute the background-error-covariance matrix and participated in the redaction of Sect. 3.1.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e5608">The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="sistatement"><title>Special issue statement</title>

      <p id="d1e5614">This article is part of the special issue “Tropospheric profiling (ISTP11) (AMT/ACP inter-journal SI)”. It is a result of the 11th edition of the International Symposium on Tropospheric Profiling (ISTP), Toulouse, France, 20–24 May 2019.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e5620">This article is based upon work from COST Actions ES1303 (TOPROF) and CA18235 (PROBE), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) – <uri>http://www.cost.eu</uri> (last access: 17 November 2020). The  authors  thank  ANDRA for providing access to the atmospheric platform observations. The deployment of the SOFOG3D MWR network was funded by the ANR SOFOG3D (SOuth west FOGs 3D experiment for processes study, ANR-18-CE01-0004). Thomas Rieutord is thanked for helpful discussions on statistical analysis. Yann Seity is thanked for providing the map of the AROME 500 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M363" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> domain. We acknowledge the helpful comments from
two anonymous reviewers to improving the article.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d1e5637">This research has been supported by COST Actions (TOPROF (grant no. ES1303) and PROBE (grant no. CA18235)), and ANR (grant no. ANR-18-CE01-0004 SOFO3D).</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e5643">This paper was edited by E. J. O'Connor and reviewed by two anonymous referees.</p>
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    <!--<article-title-html>Improvement of numerical weather prediction model analysis during fog conditions through the assimilation of  ground-based microwave radiometer observations: a 1D-Var study</article-title-html>
<abstract-html><p>This paper investigates the potential benefit of ground-based microwave radiometers (MWRs) to improve the initial state (analysis)
of current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems during fog
conditions. To this end, temperature, humidity and liquid water path
(LWP) retrievals have been performed by directly assimilating
brightness temperatures using a one-dimensional variational technique
(1D-Var). This study focuses on a fog-dedicated field-experiment
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a 120&thinsp;m tower and radiosoundings are used to assess the
improvement brought by the 1D-Var analysis to the background. A
sensitivity study demonstrates the importance of the
cross-correlations between temperature and specific humidity in the
background-error-covariance matrix as well as the bias correction
applied on MWR raw measurements. With the optimal 1D-Var
configuration, root-mean-square errors smaller than 1.5&thinsp;K
(respectively 0.8&thinsp;K) for temperature and 1&thinsp;g kg<sup>−1</sup>
(respectively 0.5&thinsp;g kg<sup>−1</sup>) for humidity are obtained up to
6&thinsp;km altitude (respectively within the fog layer up to
250&thinsp;m). A thin radiative fog case study has shown that the
assimilation of MWR observations was able to correct large temperature
errors of the AROME (Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale) model as well as vertical and temporal errors
observed in the fog life cycle. A statistical evaluation through the
whole period has demonstrated that the largest impact when
assimilating MWR observations is obtained on the temperature and LWP
fields, while it is neutral to slightly positive for the specific
humidity. Most of the temperature improvement is observed during false
alarms when the AROME forecasts tend to significantly overestimate the
temperature cooling. During missed fog profiles, 1D-Var analyses were
found to increase the atmospheric stability within the first
100&thinsp;m above the surface compared to the initial background
profile. Concerning the LWP, the RMSE with respect to MWR statistical
regressions is decreased from 101&thinsp;g m<sup>−2</sup> in the background
to 27&thinsp;g m<sup>−2</sup> in the 1D-Var analysis. These encouraging
results led to the deployment of eight MWRs during the international
SOFOG3D (SOuth FOGs 3D experiment for fog processes study) experiment
conducted by Météo-France.</p></abstract-html>
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