Prediction of tropical cyclonegenesis over the South China Sea using SSM/I satellite

Abstract. We propose a method for predicting tropical cyclonegenesis over the South China Sea (SCS) based on the total latent heat release (TLHR) derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager(SSM/I) satellite observations. A threshold value (3×10¹⁴ W) for distinguishing the non-developing and developing tropical disturbances is obtained based on the analysis for 25 developing and 43 non-developing tropical disturbances over the SCS during 2000 to 2005. One simple idealized model is further designed to verify that mean TLHR of 3×10¹⁴ W within 500 km of the center of tropical disturbance could maintain and develop the tropical disturbance, by heating the air at the upper level and dropping the sea level pressure by 3.2 hPa. A real time testing prediction of tropical cyclonegenesis over the SCS was conducted for the year of 2007 and 2008 using this threshold value of TLHR. We find that the method is successful in detecting the formation of tropical cyclones for 80% of all tropical disturbances over the SCS during 2007 and 2008.