Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2020-454
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2020-454

  04 Jan 2021

04 Jan 2021

Review status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal AMT and is expected to appear here in due course.

Global Ensemble of Temperatures over 1850–2018: Quantification of Uncertainties in Observations, Coverage, and Spatial modelling (GETQUOCS)

Maryam Ilyas1,2, Douglas Nychka3, Chris Brierley4, and Serge Guillas1 Maryam Ilyas et al.
  • 1Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK
  • 2College of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
  • 3Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA
  • 4Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK

Abstract. Instrumental temperature records are derived from the network of in situ measurements of land and sea surface temperatures. This observational evidence is seen as fundamental to climate science. Therefore, the accuracy of these measurements is of prime importance for the analysis of temperature variability. There are spatial gaps in the distribution of instrumental temperature measurements across the globe. This lack of spatial coverage introduces coverage error. An approximate Bayesian computation based multi-resolution lattice kriging is developed and used to quantify the coverage errors through the variance of the spatial process at multiple spatial scales. It critically accounts for the variation in the parameters of this advanced spatial statistics model itself, thereby providing for the first time a full description of both the spatial coverage uncertainties along with the uncertainties in the modeling of these spatial gaps. These coverage errors are combined with the existing estimates of uncertainties due to observational issues at each station location. It results in an ensemble of 100,000 monthly temperatures fields over the entire globe that samples the combination of coverage, parametric and observational uncertainties from 1850 till 2018 over a 5° × 5° grid.

Maryam Ilyas et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on amt-2020-454', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Feb 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Maryam Ilyas, 30 Mar 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on amt-2020-454', Anonymous Referee #3, 01 Mar 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Maryam Ilyas, 30 Mar 2021

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on amt-2020-454', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Feb 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Maryam Ilyas, 30 Mar 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on amt-2020-454', Anonymous Referee #3, 01 Mar 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Maryam Ilyas, 30 Mar 2021

Maryam Ilyas et al.

Maryam Ilyas et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 465 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
287 164 14 465 4 4
  • HTML: 287
  • PDF: 164
  • XML: 14
  • Total: 465
  • BibTeX: 4
  • EndNote: 4
Views and downloads (calculated since 04 Jan 2021)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 04 Jan 2021)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 455 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 453 with geography defined and 2 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 21 Oct 2021