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Atmospheric Measurement Techniques An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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  04 Jan 2021

04 Jan 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal AMT.

Global Ensemble of Temperatures over 1850–2018: Quantification of Uncertainties in Observations, Coverage, and Spatial modelling (GETQUOCS)

Maryam Ilyas1,2, Douglas Nychka3, Chris Brierley4, and Serge Guillas1 Maryam Ilyas et al.
  • 1Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK
  • 2College of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
  • 3Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA
  • 4Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK

Abstract. Instrumental temperature records are derived from the network of in situ measurements of land and sea surface temperatures. This observational evidence is seen as fundamental to climate science. Therefore, the accuracy of these measurements is of prime importance for the analysis of temperature variability. There are spatial gaps in the distribution of instrumental temperature measurements across the globe. This lack of spatial coverage introduces coverage error. An approximate Bayesian computation based multi-resolution lattice kriging is developed and used to quantify the coverage errors through the variance of the spatial process at multiple spatial scales. It critically accounts for the variation in the parameters of this advanced spatial statistics model itself, thereby providing for the first time a full description of both the spatial coverage uncertainties along with the uncertainties in the modeling of these spatial gaps. These coverage errors are combined with the existing estimates of uncertainties due to observational issues at each station location. It results in an ensemble of 100,000 monthly temperatures fields over the entire globe that samples the combination of coverage, parametric and observational uncertainties from 1850 till 2018 over a 5° × 5° grid.

Maryam Ilyas et al.

Status: open (until 01 Mar 2021)

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Maryam Ilyas et al.

Maryam Ilyas et al.


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