Validation of a camera-based intra-hour irradiance nowcasting model using synthetic cloud data

Gregor, Philipp; Zinner, Tobias; Jakub, Fabian; Mayer, Bernhard

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3257-2023

Articles | Volume 16, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3257-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3257-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 12

Research article

|

29 Jun 2023

Research article |

| 29 Jun 2023

Validation of a camera-based intra-hour irradiance nowcasting model using synthetic cloud data

Philipp Gregor, Tobias Zinner, Fabian Jakub, and Bernhard Mayer

Data sets

UCLA-LES shallow cumulus dataset with 3D cloud output data F. Jakub and P. Gregor https://doi.org/10.57970/5d0k9-q2n86

Short summary

This work introduces MACIN, a model for short-term forecasting of direct irradiance for solar energy applications. MACIN exploits cloud images of multiple cameras to predict irradiance. The model is applied to artificial images of clouds from a weather model. The artificial cloud data allow for a more in-depth evaluation and attribution of errors compared with real data. Good performance of derived cloud information and significant forecast improvements over a baseline forecast were found.