Articles | Volume 18, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-6393-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-6393-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 11 Nov 2025
| 11 Nov 2025
Stratospheric gravity waves in a post-limb sounder era: can GNSS-RO be used to extend the SABER QBO-driving record?
Marwa Almowafy
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for Climate Adaptation and Environment Research, University of Bath, Bath, UK
Astronomy and Meteorology Department, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
Corwin J. Wright
Centre for Climate Adaptation and Environment Research, University of Bath, Bath, UK
Neil P. Hindley
Centre for Climate Adaptation and Environment Research, University of Bath, Bath, UK
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Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Blanca Ayarzaguena, Marta Abalos, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Ying Dai, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Peter Hitchcock, Martin Jucker, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Gerbrand Koren, Simon H. Lee, Robert W. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Jian Rao, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6070, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Weather at the surface is influenced by the stratosphere, where changes can affect conditions weeks later. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes (NAM and SAM) describe large-scale shifts in winds around the poles that influence storms, temperature and rainfall. We show that 22 forecasting models have systematic biases in representing stratosphere–troposphere coupling, limiting prediction skill. Improving these processes could extend useful forecasts of weather extremes.
Phoebe Noble, Haruka Okui, Joan Alexander, Manfred Ern, Neil P. Hindley, Lars Hoffmann, Laura Holt, Annelize van Niekerk, Riwal Plougonven, Inna Polichtchouk, Claudia C. Stephan, Martina Bramberger, Milena Corcos, William Putnam, Christopher Kruse, and Corwin J. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 7607–7630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7607-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7607-2026, 2026
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Gravity waves are small-scale processes that drive the circulation in the middle and upper atmosphere. In this work, we assess 3 new high-resolution (3-5km horizontal resolution) models against satellite data. Generally, models capture the spatial patterns and represent stratospheric northern hemisphere mountain generated waves well. However, they still underestimate amplitudes globally and struggle with the representation of southern hemispheric convective waves.
Yen-Sen Lu, Lars Hoffmann, Xue Wu, Corwin J. Wright, and Neil P. Hindley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1469, 2026
Preprint archived
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We studied how computer models represent atmospheric waves triggered by intense tropical cyclones. We used a real typhoon as a case study to test how different mathematical descriptions of the atmospheric model affect these wave patterns. We found that small changes in model settings significantly impact the predicted waves in the upper atmosphere. This research helps scientists choose better model configurations to improve weather forecasts and our understanding of atmospheric science.
Corwin J. Wright, Phoebe E. Noble, Timothy P. Banyard, Sarah J. Freeman, and Paul D. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 18267–18290, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18267-2025, 2025
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We use measured transatlantic flight times since 1994 from the IAGOS (In-Service Aircraft for a Global
Observing System) program to assess the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and solar cycle. We show that they drive changes to one-way flight times of over an hour and to round-trip flight times by several minutes per flight. They thus cause variability in total CO2 emissions of 10s of kT/month and financial cost of millions of US dollars/month over the full transatlantic fleet.
Observing System) program to assess the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and solar cycle. We show that they drive changes to one-way flight times of over an hour and to round-trip flight times by several minutes per flight. They thus cause variability in total CO2 emissions of 10s of kT/month and financial cost of millions of US dollars/month over the full transatlantic fleet.
Peter G. Berthelemy, Corwin J. Wright, Neil P. Hindley, Phoebe E. Noble, and Lars Hoffmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 17595–17611, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17595-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-17595-2025, 2025
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Atmospheric gravity waves are one of the key mechanisms for moving energy upwards through the atmosphere. We use temperature data to see them from a satellite, and here have made a new method to automatically detect them. This works by seeing if points next to each other are from the same wave. This is useful for creating larger gravity wave datasets without noise, which can then be used by climate forecasters to improve their understanding of the atmosphere.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irene Erner, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier García-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 171–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025, 2025
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Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere is coupled, and because of the longer timescales characteristic of the stratosphere, this allows for a window of opportunity for surface prediction. This paper assesses whether models used for operational prediction capture these coupling processes accurately. We find that most processes are too weak; however downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is too strong.
Gunter Stober, Sharon L. Vadas, Erich Becker, Alan Liu, Alexander Kozlovsky, Diego Janches, Zishun Qiao, Witali Krochin, Guochun Shi, Wen Yi, Jie Zeng, Peter Brown, Denis Vida, Neil Hindley, Christoph Jacobi, Damian Murphy, Ricardo Buriti, Vania Andrioli, Paulo Batista, John Marino, Scott Palo, Denise Thorsen, Masaki Tsutsumi, Njål Gulbrandsen, Satonori Nozawa, Mark Lester, Kathrin Baumgarten, Johan Kero, Evgenia Belova, Nicholas Mitchell, Tracy Moffat-Griffin, and Na Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4851–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4851-2024, 2024
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On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai volcano exploded in a vigorous eruption, causing many atmospheric phenomena reaching from the surface up to space. In this study, we investigate how the mesospheric winds were affected by the volcanogenic gravity waves and estimated their propagation direction and speed. The interplay between model and observations permits us to gain new insights into the vertical coupling through atmospheric gravity waves.
Timothy P. Banyard, Corwin J. Wright, Scott M. Osprey, Neil P. Hindley, Gemma Halloran, Lawrence Coy, Paul A. Newman, Neal Butchart, Martina Bramberger, and M. Joan Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2465–2490, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2465-2024, 2024
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In 2019/2020, the tropical stratospheric wind phenomenon known as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was disrupted for only the second time in the historical record. This was poorly forecasted, and we want to understand why. We used measurements from the first Doppler wind lidar in space, Aeolus, to observe the disruption in an unprecedented way. Our results reveal important differences between Aeolus and the ERA5 reanalysis that affect the timing of the disruption's onset and its evolution.
Xue Wu, Lars Hoffmann, Corwin J. Wright, Neil P. Hindley, M. Joan Alexander, Silvio Kalisch, Xin Wang, Bing Chen, Yinan Wang, and Daren Lyu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3008, 2024
Preprint archived
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This study identified a noteworthy time-lagged correlation between hurricane intensity and stratospheric gravity wave intensities during hurricane intensification. Meanwhile, the study reveals distinct frequencies, horizontal wavelengths, and vertical wavelengths in the inner core region during hurricane intensification, offering essential insights for monitoring hurricane intensity via satellite observations of stratospheric gravity waves.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irene Erner, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
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Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Neil P. Hindley, Nicholas J. Mitchell, Neil Cobbett, Anne K. Smith, Dave C. Fritts, Diego Janches, Corwin J. Wright, and Tracy Moffat-Griffin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9435–9459, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9435-2022, 2022
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We present observations of winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) from a recently installed meteor radar on the remote island of South Georgia (54° S, 36° W). We characterise mean winds, tides, planetary waves, and gravity waves in the MLT at this location and compare our measured winds with a leading climate model. We find that the observed wintertime winds are unexpectedly reversed from model predictions, probably because of missing impacts of secondary gravity waves in the model.
Isabell Krisch, Neil P. Hindley, Oliver Reitebuch, and Corwin J. Wright
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3465–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3465-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3465-2022, 2022
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The Aeolus satellite measures global height resolved profiles of wind along a certain line-of-sight. However, for atmospheric dynamics research, wind measurements along the three cardinal axes are most useful. This paper presents methods to convert the measurements into zonal and meridional wind components. By combining the measurements during ascending and descending orbits, we achieve good derivation of zonal wind (equatorward of 80° latitude) and meridional wind (poleward of 70° latitude).
Phoebe Noble, Neil Hindley, Corwin Wright, Chihoko Cullens, Scott England, Nicholas Pedatella, Nicholas Mitchell, and Tracy Moffat-Griffin
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-150, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We use long term radar data and the WACCM-X model to study the impact of dynamical phenomena, including the 11-year solar cycle, ENSO, QBO and SAM, on Antarctic mesospheric winds. We find that in summer, the zonal wind (both observationally and in the model) is strongly correlated with the solar cycle. We also see important differences in the results from the other processes. In addition we find important and large biases in the winter model zonal winds relative to the observations.
Corwin J. Wright, Richard J. Hall, Timothy P. Banyard, Neil P. Hindley, Isabell Krisch, Daniel M. Mitchell, and William J. M. Seviour
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1283–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1283-2021, 2021
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Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are some of the most dramatic events in the atmosphere and are believed to help cause extreme winter weather events such as the 2018 Beast from the East in Europe and North America. Here, we use unique data from the European Space Agency's new Aeolus satellite to make the first-ever measurements at a global scale of wind changes due to an SSW in the lower part of the atmosphere to help us understand how SSWs affect the atmosphere and surface weather.
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Short summary
Gravity waves (GW) influence atmospheric dynamics. One key effect is on the zonal winds in the tropics stratosphere, which drive the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Satellite observations are used to study gravity waves, but each satellite is constrained by its observational limits. This study investigates how GW–QBO interactions are observed by two satellites, SABER and GNSS-RO, and examines the potential for GNSS-RO to extend the GW climatology that is carried out by SABER for 23 years.
Gravity waves (GW) influence atmospheric dynamics. One key effect is on the zonal winds in the...
