Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1951-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1951-2026
Research article
 | 
18 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 18 Mar 2026

Observing long-lived longwave contrail forcing

Aaron Sonabend-W, Scott Geraedts, Nita Goyal, Joe Yue-Hei Ng, Christopher Van Arsdale, and Kevin McCloskey

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3739', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Oct 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1 (Referee #2)', Kevin McCloskey, 21 Nov 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3739', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Oct 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2 (Referee #1)', Kevin McCloskey, 21 Nov 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Kevin McCloskey on behalf of the Authors (21 Nov 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (22 Nov 2025) by Chao Liu
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (20 Jan 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (21 Jan 2026)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (21 Jan 2026) by Chao Liu
AR by Kevin McCloskey on behalf of the Authors (27 Feb 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (04 Mar 2026) by Chao Liu
AR by Kevin McCloskey on behalf of the Authors (04 Mar 2026)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
Airplane condensation trails trap heat, but their full warming effect is hard to measure because they blend into natural clouds. Using satellite observations, weather data, flight paths, and a causal inference framework, we isolated this effect without simulations or contrail masks. We found contrails trap 46.9 gigajoules of heat per kilometer flown over the Americas. This provides a crucially missing observation-based estimate of a major portion of aviation’s environmental impact.
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