Articles | Volume 18, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-5393-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Classifying thermodynamic cloud phase using machine learning models
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- Final revised paper (published on 16 Oct 2025)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 07 May 2025)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1501', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 May 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Lexie Goldberger, 11 Jul 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1501', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 May 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Lexie Goldberger, 11 Jul 2025
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Lexie Goldberger on behalf of the Authors (11 Jul 2025)
Author's response
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ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Jul 2025) by Gianfranco Vulpiani
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (14 Jul 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 Jul 2025) by Gianfranco Vulpiani
AR by Lexie Goldberger on behalf of the Authors (01 Aug 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish as is (01 Aug 2025) by Gianfranco Vulpiani
AR by Damao Zhang on behalf of the Authors (09 Aug 2025)
Manuscript
This manuscript uses the U.S. Department of Energy’s THERMOCLDPHASE Value Added Product (VAP) that contains information about the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation to train three machine learning models to predict cloud thermodynamic phase at the North Slope of Alaska. The THERMOCLDPHASE VAP uses radiosondes, radar, and lidar, and a microwave radiometer to classify pixels as belonging to one of seven categories: 1) ice, 2) snow, 3) mixed-phase, 4) liquid, 5) drizzle, 6) rain, and 7) liquid + drizzle. The three machine learning models are 1) random forest (RF), 2) multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network, and 3) convolutional neural network (CNN) using a U-Net architecture. The authors evaluate the three machine learning models in terms of their ability to classify pixels into the seven categories using the THERMOCLDPHASE VAP as ground truth. They found that the CNN outperforms the other two models, correctly identifying ice pixels frequently, which they attribute to the fact that it takes into account the vertical structure of the pixels holistically whereas the other models consider pixels individually. They also found that Doppler velocity and vertical profiles of temperature are the most important variables for correctly predicting cloud thermodynamic phase using “feature importance analysis”. They then test the ability of their models to correctly classify the pixels into the seven categories at the COMBLE field campaign (for the period between Feb 11 – May 31, 2020) which deployed the same four instruments used in the VAP to determine how generally their models are applicable to other sites. They find that like the NSA results, the CNN outperforms the other two models and correctly identifies the frequent presence of ice pixels. Finally, the authors also trained a model (called the CNN-ICD) to test how resilient the model is to missing data. This model is based on the U-Net CNN but differs in that it includes an additional layer to drop out random input channels during training. Consistent with their “feature importance analysis”, they find that vertical temperature profiles and radar variables are the most important variables for reproducing the THERMODCLDPHASE VAP product at the NSA site.
This work addresses an important aspect of polar clouds based on the recent THERMODCLDPHASE VAP, elucidates aspects of its algorithm, and creatively investigates how to extend it using machine learning. I believe their product will be a useful contribution to the scientific community. My only main concern is the relatively minor role that lidar plays in the phase classifications and therefore the relatively poor skill that the models have in predicting liquid. I suggest that the authors delve further into how liquid phase predictions can be improved while removing the somewhat redundant parts of the manuscript describing the drop-out experiments described below. The results also seem to show that temperature plays a more dominant role than shown by the analysis methods. I would recommend publication of this manuscript after the authors consider the suggestions below.
Clarifying the geographical scope of the work
Clarifying the roles of temperature and lidar
Suggestions with regards to writing:
Abstract:
Introduction:
Concerns regarding redundancy:
Minor/typographical suggestions:
References:
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Mülmenstädt, Johannes, et al. "Frequency of occurrence of rain from liquid‐, mixed‐, and ice‐phase clouds derived from A‐Train satellite retrievals." Geophysical Research Letters 42.15 (2015): 6502-6509.
Pithan, Felix, Brian Medeiros, and Thorsten Mauritsen. "Mixed-phase clouds cause climate model biases in Arctic wintertime temperature inversions." Climate dynamics 43 (2014): 289-303.
Tan, Ivy, et al. "Moderate climate sensitivity due to opposing mixed-phase cloud feedbacks." npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 8.1 (2025): 86.
Platnick, Steven, et al. "The MODIS cloud optical and microphysical products: Collection 6 updates and examples from Terra and Aqua." IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 55.1 (2016): 502-525.