Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1033-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1033-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Evaluation of convective cloud microphysics in numerical weather prediction models with dual-wavelength polarimetric radar observations: methods and examples
Gregor Köcher
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich,
Germany
Tobias Zinner
Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich,
Germany
Christoph Knote
Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich,
Germany
Medizinische Fakultät, Universität Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
Eleni Tetoni
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der
Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Florian Ewald
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der
Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Martin Hagen
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der
Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
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Gregor Köcher and Tobias Zinner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2475, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
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Simulations of convective precipitation events with microphysics schemes of varying complexity are statistically evaluated against polarimetric radar observations. Convective precipitation is potentially hazardous and difficult to predict. Cloud microphysics schemes contribute significantly to this uncertainty. Depending on the microphysics used, the simulated precipitation distribution varies significantly. The main reason for these differences are the underlying rain drop size distributions.
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A neural-network-based fast forward operator for polarized 3D radiative transfer is presented. The forward operator uses the new independent column local half-sphere approximation (IDEFAX). Polarized radiances simulated with IFEDAX and the forward operator were validated against full 3D radiative transfer simulations with MYSTIC and show a significantly improved representation of 3D radiative effects compared to the plane-parallel independent column approximation at comparable computation times.
Gregor Köcher, Tobias Zinner, and Christoph Knote
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6255–6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Polarimetric radar observations of 30 d of convective precipitation events are used to statistically analyze 5 state-of-the-art microphysics schemes of varying complexity. The frequency and area of simulated heavy-precipitation events are in some cases significantly different from those observed, depending on the microphysics scheme. Analysis of simulated particle size distributions and reflectivities shows that some schemes have problems reproducing the correct particle size distributions.
Eleni Tetoni, Florian Ewald, Martin Hagen, Gregor Köcher, Tobias Zinner, and Silke Groß
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3969–3999, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3969-2022, 2022
Short summary
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We use the C-band POLDIRAD and the Ka-band MIRA-35 to perform snowfall dual-wavelength polarimetric radar measurements. We develop an ice microphysics retrieval for mass, apparent shape, and median size of the particle size distribution by comparing observations to T-matrix ice spheroid simulations while varying the mass–size relationship. We furthermore show how the polarimetric measurements from POLDIRAD help to narrow down ambiguities between ice particle shape and size.
Martin Hagen, Florian Ewald, Silke Groß, Lothar Oswald, David A. Farrell, Marvin Forde, Manuel Gutleben, Johann Heumos, Jens Reimann, Eleni Tetoni, Gregor Köcher, Eleni Marinou, Christoph Kiemle, Qiang Li, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Alton Daley, Delando Grant, and Kashawn Hall
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5899–5914, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5899-2021, 2021
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The German polarimetric weather radar Poldirad was deployed for the international campaign EUREC4A on Barbados. The focus was monitoring clouds and precipitation in the trade wind region east of Barbados. Observations were with a temporal sequence of 5 min and a maximum range of 375 km. Examples of mesoscale precipitation patterns, rain rate accumulation, diurnal cycle, and vertical distribution show the potential for further studies on the life cycle of precipitating shallow cumulus clouds.
Silke Trömel, Clemens Simmer, Ulrich Blahak, Armin Blanke, Sabine Doktorowski, Florian Ewald, Michael Frech, Mathias Gergely, Martin Hagen, Tijana Janjic, Heike Kalesse-Los, Stefan Kneifel, Christoph Knote, Jana Mendrok, Manuel Moser, Gregor Köcher, Kai Mühlbauer, Alexander Myagkov, Velibor Pejcic, Patric Seifert, Prabhakar Shrestha, Audrey Teisseire, Leonie von Terzi, Eleni Tetoni, Teresa Vogl, Christiane Voigt, Yuefei Zeng, Tobias Zinner, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17291–17314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, 2021
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The article introduces the ACP readership to ongoing research in Germany on cloud- and precipitation-related process information inherent in polarimetric radar measurements, outlines pathways to inform atmospheric models with radar-based information, and points to remaining challenges towards an improved fusion of radar polarimetry and atmospheric modelling.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
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The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Henning Dorff, Florian Ewald, Heike Konow, Mario Mech, Davide Ori, Vera Schemann, Andreas Walbröl, Manfred Wendisch, and Felix Ament
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8329–8354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8329-2025, 2025
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Using observations of an Arctic atmospheric river (AR) from a long-range research aircraft, we analyse how moisture transported into the Arctic by the AR is transformed and how it interacts with the Arctic environment. The moisture transport divergence is the main driver of local moisture change over time. Surface precipitation and evaporation are rather weak when averaged over extended AR sectors, although considerable heterogeneity of precipitation within the AR is observed.
Gregor Köcher and Tobias Zinner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2475, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations of convective precipitation events with microphysics schemes of varying complexity are statistically evaluated against polarimetric radar observations. Convective precipitation is potentially hazardous and difficult to predict. Cloud microphysics schemes contribute significantly to this uncertainty. Depending on the microphysics used, the simulated precipitation distribution varies significantly. The main reason for these differences are the underlying rain drop size distributions.
Anna Weber, Gregor Köcher, and Bernhard Mayer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2554, 2025
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A neural-network-based fast forward operator for polarized 3D radiative transfer is presented. The forward operator uses the new independent column local half-sphere approximation (IDEFAX). Polarized radiances simulated with IFEDAX and the forward operator were validated against full 3D radiative transfer simulations with MYSTIC and show a significantly improved representation of 3D radiative effects compared to the plane-parallel independent column approximation at comparable computation times.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
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The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
André Ehrlich, Susanne Crewell, Andreas Herber, Marcus Klingebiel, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Matthias Buschmann, Hans-Christian Clemen, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Andreas Giez, Sarah Grawe, Christophe Gourbeyre, Jörg Hartmann, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsófia Jurányi, Benjamin Kirbus, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Christian Mallaun, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Veronika Pörtge, Nils Risse, Greg Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Andreas Schäfler, Imke Schirmacher, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Frank Stratmann, Christian Tatzelt, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Manfred Wendisch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1295–1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1295-2025, 2025
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This paper provides an overview of the HALO–(AC)3 aircraft campaign data sets, the campaign-specific instrument operation, data processing, and data quality. The data set comprises in situ and remote sensing observations from three research aircraft: HALO, Polar 5, and Polar 6. All data are published in the PANGAEA database by instrument-separated data subsets. It is highlighted how the scientific analysis of the HALO–(AC)3 data benefits from the coordinated operation of three aircraft.
Christian Heske, Florian Ewald, and Silke Groß
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-691, 2025
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This study proposes a new technique to augment polarimetric radar measurements of the national German operational radar network with vertically looking cloud radars. The method is tested in two different case studies by comparison to dedicated scanning radars revealing promising results. Future usage of the method is motivated by analyzing the coverage of the operational radar network finding advantageous locations with good radar coverage.
Lea Volkmer, Tobias Kölling, Tobias Zinner, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6807–6817, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6807-2024, 2024
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The importance of the consideration of cloud motion for the stereographic determination of cloud top height from aircraft observations is demonstrated using measurements of the airborne spectrometer of the Munich Aerosol Cloud Scanner (specMACS). A method for cloud motion correction using model winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is presented and validated using both real measurements and realistic radiative transfer simulations.
Manfred Wendisch, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Benjamin Kirbus, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Steven J. Abel, Elisa F. Akansu, Felix Ament, Clémantyne Aubry, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Marlen Brückner, Hans-Christian Clemen, Sandro Dahlke, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Julien Delanoë, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Sarah Grawe, Silke Groß, Jörg Hartmann, Silvia Henning, Lutz Hirsch, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsofia Jurányi, Michail Karalis, Mona Kellermann, Marcus Klingebiel, Michael Lonardi, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Bernhard Mayer, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Janosch Michaelis, Michel Michalkov, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Roel Neggers, Davide Ori, Daria Paul, Fiona M. Paulus, Christian Pilz, Felix Pithan, Mira Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Maximilian Ringel, Nils Risse, Gregory C. Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna Rückert, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Jörg Schmidt, Sebastian Schmidt, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Anja Schwarz, Holger Siebert, Harald Sodemann, Tim Sperzel, Gunnar Spreen, Bjorn Stevens, Frank Stratmann, Gunilla Svensson, Christian Tatzelt, Thomas Tuch, Timo Vihma, Christiane Voigt, Lea Volkmer, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Birgit Wehner, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Tobias Zinner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8865–8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, 2024
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. Warm-air intrusions (WAIs) into the Arctic may play an important role in explaining this phenomenon. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) out of the Arctic may link the Arctic climate changes to mid-latitude weather. In our article, we describe how to observe air mass transformations during CAOs and WAIs using three research aircraft instrumented with state-of-the-art remote-sensing and in situ measurement devices.
Johannes Röttenbacher, André Ehrlich, Hanno Müller, Florian Ewald, Anna E. Luebke, Benjamin Kirbus, Robin J. Hogan, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8085–8104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8085-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8085-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction models simplify the physical processes related to light scattering by clouds consisting of complex ice crystals. Whether these simplifications are the cause for uncertainties in their prediction can be evaluated by comparing them with measurement data. Here we do this for Arctic ice clouds over sea ice using airborne measurements from two case studies. The model performs well for thick ice clouds but not so well for thin ones. This work can be used to improve the model.
Clémantyne Aubry, Julien Delanoë, Silke Groß, Florian Ewald, Frédéric Tridon, Olivier Jourdan, and Guillaume Mioche
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3863–3881, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3863-2024, 2024
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Radar–lidar synergy is used to retrieve ice, supercooled water and mixed-phase cloud properties, making the most of the radar sensitivity to ice crystals and the lidar sensitivity to supercooled droplets. A first analysis of the output of the algorithm run on the satellite data is compared with in situ data during an airborne Arctic field campaign, giving a mean percent error of 49 % for liquid water content and 75 % for ice water content.
Karina McCusker, Anthony J. Baran, Chris Westbrook, Stuart Fox, Patrick Eriksson, Richard Cotton, Julien Delanoë, and Florian Ewald
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3533–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3533-2024, 2024
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Polarised radiative transfer simulations are performed using an atmospheric model based on in situ measurements. These are compared to large polarisation measurements to explore whether such measurements can provide information on cloud ice, e.g. particle shape and orientation. We find that using oriented particle models with shapes based on imagery generally allows for accurate simulations. However, results are sensitive to shape assumptions such as the choice of single crystals or aggregates.
Anna Weber, Tobias Kölling, Veronika Pörtge, Andreas Baumgartner, Clemens Rammeloo, Tobias Zinner, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1419–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1419-2024, 2024
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In this work, we introduce the 2D RGB polarization-resolving cameras of the airborne hyperspectral and polarized imaging system specMACS. A full characterization and calibration of the cameras including a geometric calibration as well as a radiometric characterization is provided, allowing for the computation of absolute calibrated, georeferenced Stokes vectors rotated into the scattering plane. We validate the calibration by comparing sunglint measurements to radiative transfer simulations.
Bin Zhou and Christoph Knote
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-111, 2023
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
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This study estimates the loss of life caused by wildfires in the eastern and central Mediterranean basin in summer 2021. We used a computer model to simulate concentrations of air pollutants emitted from wildfires and estimated the resulting excess human deaths based on the most relevant evidence from literature. We found that wildfire-caused air pollution accounted for several hundred excess deaths. We estimate the effects of ozone to exceed those of particles created by wildfires.
Philipp Gregor, Tobias Zinner, Fabian Jakub, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3257–3271, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3257-2023, 2023
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This work introduces MACIN, a model for short-term forecasting of direct irradiance for solar energy applications. MACIN exploits cloud images of multiple cameras to predict irradiance. The model is applied to artificial images of clouds from a weather model. The artificial cloud data allow for a more in-depth evaluation and attribution of errors compared with real data. Good performance of derived cloud information and significant forecast improvements over a baseline forecast were found.
Gregor Köcher, Tobias Zinner, and Christoph Knote
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6255–6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6255-2023, 2023
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Polarimetric radar observations of 30 d of convective precipitation events are used to statistically analyze 5 state-of-the-art microphysics schemes of varying complexity. The frequency and area of simulated heavy-precipitation events are in some cases significantly different from those observed, depending on the microphysics scheme. Analysis of simulated particle size distributions and reflectivities shows that some schemes have problems reproducing the correct particle size distributions.
Veronika Pörtge, Tobias Kölling, Anna Weber, Lea Volkmer, Claudia Emde, Tobias Zinner, Linda Forster, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 645–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-645-2023, 2023
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In this work, we analyze polarized cloudbow observations by the airborne camera system specMACS to retrieve the cloud droplet size distribution defined by the effective radius (reff) and the effective variance (veff). Two case studies of trade-wind cumulus clouds observed during the EUREC4A field campaign are presented. The results are combined into maps of reff and veff with a very high spatial resolution (100 m × 100 m) that allow new insights into cloud microphysics.
Eleni Tetoni, Florian Ewald, Martin Hagen, Gregor Köcher, Tobias Zinner, and Silke Groß
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3969–3999, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3969-2022, 2022
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We use the C-band POLDIRAD and the Ka-band MIRA-35 to perform snowfall dual-wavelength polarimetric radar measurements. We develop an ice microphysics retrieval for mass, apparent shape, and median size of the particle size distribution by comparing observations to T-matrix ice spheroid simulations while varying the mass–size relationship. We furthermore show how the polarimetric measurements from POLDIRAD help to narrow down ambiguities between ice particle shape and size.
Andreas Luther, Julian Kostinek, Ralph Kleinschek, Sara Defratyka, Mila Stanisavljević, Andreas Forstmaier, Alexandru Dandocsi, Leon Scheidweiler, Darko Dubravica, Norman Wildmann, Frank Hase, Matthias M. Frey, Jia Chen, Florian Dietrich, Jarosław Nȩcki, Justyna Swolkień, Christoph Knote, Sanam N. Vardag, Anke Roiger, and André Butz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5859–5876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5859-2022, 2022
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Coal mining is an extensive source of anthropogenic methane emissions. In order to reduce and mitigate methane emissions, it is important to know how much and where the methane is emitted. We estimated coal mining methane emissions in Poland based on atmospheric methane measurements and particle dispersion modeling. In general, our emission estimates suggest higher emissions than expected by previous annual emission reports.
Mireia Papke Chica, Valerian Hahn, Tiziana Braeuer, Elena de la Torre Castro, Florian Ewald, Mathias Gergely, Simon Kirschler, Luca Bugliaro Goggia, Stefanie Knobloch, Martina Kraemer, Johannes Lucke, Johanna Mayer, Raphael Maerkl, Manuel Moser, Laura Tomsche, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Martin Zoeger, Christian von Savigny, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-255, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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The mixed-phase temperature regime in convective clouds challenges our understanding of microphysical and radiative cloud properties. We provide a rare and unique dataset of aircraft in situ measurements in a strong mid-latitude convective system. We find that mechanisms initiating ice nucleation and growth strongly depend on temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity and variate within the measured system, resulting in altitude dependent changes of the cloud liquid and ice fraction.
Simon Pfreundschuh, Stuart Fox, Patrick Eriksson, David Duncan, Stefan A. Buehler, Manfred Brath, Richard Cotton, and Florian Ewald
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 677–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-677-2022, 2022
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We test a novel method to remotely measure ice particles in clouds. This is important because such measurements are required to improve climate and weather models. The method combines a radar with newly developed sensors measuring microwave radiation at very short wavelengths. We use observations made from aircraft flying above the cloud and compare them to real measurements from inside the cloud. This works well given that one can model the ice particles in the cloud sufficiently well.
Leonie Villiger, Heini Wernli, Maxi Boettcher, Martin Hagen, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 59–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-59-2022, 2022
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The coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the clouds in the trade-wind region is complex and not yet fully understood. In this study, the formation pathway of two anomalous cloud layers over Barbados during the field campaign EUREC4A is described. The two case studies highlight the influence of remote weather systems on the local environmental conditions in Barbados.
Dongwook Kim, Changmin Cho, Seokhan Jeong, Soojin Lee, Benjamin A. Nault, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Douglas A. Day, Jason C. Schroder, Jose L. Jimenez, Rainer Volkamer, Donald R. Blake, Armin Wisthaler, Alan Fried, Joshua P. DiGangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Sally E. Pusede, Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, L. Gregory Huey, David J. Tanner, Jack Dibb, Christoph J. Knote, and Kyung-Eun Min
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 805–821, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-805-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-805-2022, 2022
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CHOCHO was simulated using a 0-D box model constrained by measurements during the KORUS-AQ mission. CHOCHO concentration was high in large cities, aromatics being the most important precursors. Loss path to aerosol was the highest sink, contributing to ~ 20 % of secondary organic aerosol formation. Our work highlights that simple CHOCHO surface uptake approach is valid only for low aerosol conditions and more work is required to understand CHOCHO solubility in high-aerosol conditions.
Martin Hagen, Florian Ewald, Silke Groß, Lothar Oswald, David A. Farrell, Marvin Forde, Manuel Gutleben, Johann Heumos, Jens Reimann, Eleni Tetoni, Gregor Köcher, Eleni Marinou, Christoph Kiemle, Qiang Li, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Alton Daley, Delando Grant, and Kashawn Hall
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5899–5914, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5899-2021, 2021
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The German polarimetric weather radar Poldirad was deployed for the international campaign EUREC4A on Barbados. The focus was monitoring clouds and precipitation in the trade wind region east of Barbados. Observations were with a temporal sequence of 5 min and a maximum range of 375 km. Examples of mesoscale precipitation patterns, rain rate accumulation, diurnal cycle, and vertical distribution show the potential for further studies on the life cycle of precipitating shallow cumulus clouds.
Debora Griffin, Chris A. McLinden, Enrico Dammers, Cristen Adams, Chelsea E. Stockwell, Carsten Warneke, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Kyle J. Zarzana, Jake P. Rowe, Rainer Volkamer, Christoph Knote, Natalie Kille, Theodore K. Koenig, Christopher F. Lee, Drew Rollins, Pamela S. Rickly, Jack Chen, Lukas Fehr, Adam Bourassa, Doug Degenstein, Katherine Hayden, Cristian Mihele, Sumi N. Wren, John Liggio, Ayodeji Akingunola, and Paul Makar
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7929–7957, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7929-2021, 2021
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Satellite-derived NOx emissions from biomass burning are estimated with TROPOMI observations. Two common emission estimation methods are applied, and sensitivity tests with model output were performed to determine the accuracy of these methods. The effect of smoke aerosols on TROPOMI NO2 columns is estimated and compared to aircraft observations from four different aircraft campaigns measuring biomass burning plumes in 2018 and 2019 in North America.
Silke Trömel, Clemens Simmer, Ulrich Blahak, Armin Blanke, Sabine Doktorowski, Florian Ewald, Michael Frech, Mathias Gergely, Martin Hagen, Tijana Janjic, Heike Kalesse-Los, Stefan Kneifel, Christoph Knote, Jana Mendrok, Manuel Moser, Gregor Köcher, Kai Mühlbauer, Alexander Myagkov, Velibor Pejcic, Patric Seifert, Prabhakar Shrestha, Audrey Teisseire, Leonie von Terzi, Eleni Tetoni, Teresa Vogl, Christiane Voigt, Yuefei Zeng, Tobias Zinner, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17291–17314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, 2021
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The article introduces the ACP readership to ongoing research in Germany on cloud- and precipitation-related process information inherent in polarimetric radar measurements, outlines pathways to inform atmospheric models with radar-based information, and points to remaining challenges towards an improved fusion of radar polarimetry and atmospheric modelling.
Heike Konow, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Marek Jacob, Marcus Klingebiel, Tobias Kölling, Anna E. Luebke, Theresa Mieslinger, Veronika Pörtge, Jule Radtke, Michael Schäfer, Hauke Schulz, Raphaela Vogel, Martin Wirth, Sandrine Bony, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Linda Forster, Andreas Giez, Felix Gödde, Silke Groß, Manuel Gutleben, Martin Hagen, Lutz Hirsch, Friedhelm Jansen, Theresa Lang, Bernhard Mayer, Mario Mech, Marc Prange, Sabrina Schnitt, Jessica Vial, Andreas Walbröl, Manfred Wendisch, Kevin Wolf, Tobias Zinner, Martin Zöger, Felix Ament, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5545–5563, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5545-2021, 2021
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The German research aircraft HALO took part in the research campaign EUREC4A in January and February 2020. The focus area was the tropical Atlantic east of the island of Barbados. We describe the characteristics of the 15 research flights, provide auxiliary information, derive combined cloud mask products from all instruments that observe clouds on board the aircraft, and provide code examples that help new users of the data to get started.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
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The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Florian Ewald, Silke Groß, Martin Wirth, Julien Delanoë, Stuart Fox, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5029–5047, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5029-2021, 2021
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In this study, we show how solar radiance observations can be used to validate and further constrain ice cloud microphysics retrieved from the synergy of radar–lidar measurements. Since most radar–lidar retrievals rely on a global assumption about the ice particle shape, ice water content and particle size biases are to be expected in individual cloud regimes. In this work, we identify and correct these biases by reconciling simulated and measured solar radiation reflected from these clouds.
Caterina Mogno, Paul I. Palmer, Christoph Knote, Fei Yao, and Timothy J. Wallington
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10881–10909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10881-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10881-2021, 2021
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We use a 3-D atmospheric chemistry model to investigate how seasonal emissions sources and meteorological conditions affect the surface distribution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and organic aerosol (OA) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain. We find that all seasonal mean values of PM2.5 still exceed safe air quality levels, with human emissions contributing to PM2.5 all year round, open fires during post- and pre-monsoon, and biogenic emissions during monsoon. OA contributes up to 30 % to PM2.5.
Julian Kostinek, Anke Roiger, Maximilian Eckl, Alina Fiehn, Andreas Luther, Norman Wildmann, Theresa Klausner, Andreas Fix, Christoph Knote, Andreas Stohl, and André Butz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8791–8807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8791-2021, 2021
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Abundant mining and industrial activities in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin lead to large emissions of the potent greenhouse gas methane. This study quantifies these emissions with continuous, high-precision airborne measurements and dispersion modeling. Our emission estimates are in line with values reported in the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR 2017) but significantly lower than values reported in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v4.3.2).
Thomas Thorp, Stephen R. Arnold, Richard J. Pope, Dominick V. Spracklen, Luke Conibear, Christoph Knote, Mikhail Arshinov, Boris Belan, Eija Asmi, Tuomas Laurila, Andrei I. Skorokhod, Tuomo Nieminen, and Tuukka Petäjä
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4677–4697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4677-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4677-2021, 2021
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We compare modelled near-surface pollutants with surface and satellite observations to better understand the controls on the regional concentrations of pollution in western Siberia for late spring and summer in 2011. We find two commonly used emission inventories underestimate human emissions when compared to observations. Transport emissions are the main source of pollutants within the region during this period, whilst fire emissions peak during June and are only significant south of 60° N.
Annika Oertel, Michael Sprenger, Hanna Joos, Maxi Boettcher, Heike Konow, Martin Hagen, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 89–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-89-2021, 2021
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Convection embedded in the stratiform cloud band of strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones (so-called warm conveyor belts) can influence not only surface precipitation but also the
upper-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) and waveguide. The comparison of intense vs. moderate embedded convection shows that its strength alone is not a reliable measure for upper-tropospheric PV modification. Instead, characteristics of the ambient flow co-determine its dynamical significance.
Ben Silver, Luke Conibear, Carly L. Reddington, Christoph Knote, Steve R. Arnold, and Dominick V. Spracklen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11683–11695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11683-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11683-2020, 2020
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China suffers from serious air pollution, which is thought to cause millions of early deaths each year. Measurements on the ground show that overall air quality is improving. Air quality is also affected by weather conditions, which can vary from year to year. We conduct computer simulations to show it is the reduction of the amount of pollution emitted, rather than weather conditions, which caused air quality to improve during 2015–2017. We then estimate that 150 000 fewer people die early.
James Weber, Scott Archer-Nicholls, Paul Griffiths, Torsten Berndt, Michael Jenkin, Hamish Gordon, Christoph Knote, and Alexander T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10889–10910, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10889-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10889-2020, 2020
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Highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) are important for aerosol growth and new particle formation, particularly in air masses with less sulphuric acid. This new chemical mechanism reproduces measured [HOM] and [HOM precursors] and is concise enough for use in global climate models. The mechanism also reproduces the observed suppression of HOMs by isoprene, suggesting enhanced emissions may not necessarily lead to more aerosols. Greater HOM importance in the pre-industrial era is also shown.
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Short summary
We present a setup for systematic characterization of differences between numerical weather models and radar observations for convective weather situations. Radar observations providing dual-wavelength and polarimetric variables to infer information about hydrometeor shapes and sizes are compared against simulations using microphysics schemes of varying complexity. Differences are found in ice and liquid phase, pointing towards issues of some schemes in reproducing particle size distributions.
We present a setup for systematic characterization of differences between numerical weather...