Articles | Volume 18, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-7129-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-7129-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Dec 2025
Research article |
| 01 Dec 2025
| 01 Dec 2025
A novel machine learning retrieval for the detection of ice crystal icing conditions based on geostationary satellite imagery
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Dennis Piontek
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Luca Bugliaro
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Johanna Mayer
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
now at: European Space Agency, ESRIN, Frascati, Italy
Richard Müller
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany
Frank Kalinka
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany
Max Butter
Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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Hemanth Kumar Alladi, Julian Quimbayo-Duarte, Luca Bugliaro, Johanna Mayer, and Juerg Schmidli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4401, 2025
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Thunderstorms can transport moisture into the lower stratosphere, affecting climate. Over mountains, models fail to represent them due to underrepresentation of turbulent mixing and cloud microphysics. This study evaluates the operational TKE and new 2TE turbulence schemes, with single and double moment microphysics, in the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model against observations. ICON-TKE shows stronger mixing than 2TE, the DM scheme shows taller storms with more ice and transport than SM.
Manuel Moser, Christiane Voigt, Oliver Eppers, Johannes Lucke, Elena De La Torre Castro, Johanna Mayer, Regis Dupuy, Guillaume Mioche, Olivier Jourdan, Hans-Christian Clemen, Johannes Schneider, Philipp Joppe, Stephan Mertes, Bruno Wetzel, Stephan Borrmann, Marcus Klingebiel, Mario Mech, Christof Lüpkes, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, and Manfred Wendisch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3876, 2025
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In this study we analyzed Arctic mixed-phase clouds using airborne in-situ measurements in spring 2022. Based on microphysical properties, we show that within these clouds a distinction must be made between classic mixed-phase clouds and a mixed-phase haze regime. Instead of supercooled droplets, the haze regime contains large wet sea salt aerosols. These findings improve our understanding of Arctic low-level cloud processes.
Patrick Peter, Sigrun Matthes, Christine Frömming, Patrick Jöckel, Luca Bugliaro, Andreas Giez, Martina Krämer, and Volker Grewe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5911–5934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5911-2025, 2025
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Our study examines how well the global climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) predicts contrail formation by analysing temperature and humidity – two key factors for contrail development and persistence. The model underestimates temperature, leading to an overprediction of contrail formation and larger ice-supersaturated regions. Adjusting the model improves temperature accuracy but adds uncertainties. Better predictions of contrail formation areas can help optimise flight tracks to reduce aviation's climate effect.
André Ehrlich, Susanne Crewell, Andreas Herber, Marcus Klingebiel, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Matthias Buschmann, Hans-Christian Clemen, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Andreas Giez, Sarah Grawe, Christophe Gourbeyre, Jörg Hartmann, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsófia Jurányi, Benjamin Kirbus, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Christian Mallaun, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Veronika Pörtge, Nils Risse, Greg Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Andreas Schäfler, Imke Schirmacher, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Frank Stratmann, Christian Tatzelt, Christiane Voigt, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Manfred Wendisch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1295–1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1295-2025, 2025
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This paper provides an overview of the HALO–(AC)3 aircraft campaign data sets, the campaign-specific instrument operation, data processing, and data quality. The data set comprises in situ and remote sensing observations from three research aircraft: HALO, Polar 5, and Polar 6. All data are published in the PANGAEA database by instrument-separated data subsets. It is highlighted how the scientific analysis of the HALO–(AC)3 data benefits from the coordinated operation of three aircraft.
Ziming Wang, Luca Bugliaro, Klaus Gierens, Michaela I. Hegglin, Susanne Rohs, Andreas Petzold, Stefan Kaufmann, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2845–2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2845-2025, 2025
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Upper-tropospheric relative humidity bias in the ERA5 weather model is corrected by 10 % by an artificial neural network using aircraft in-service humidity data and thermodynamic and dynamical variables. The improved skills of the weather model will advance cirrus research, weather forecasts, and measures for contrail reduction.
Giulia Roccetti, Luca Bugliaro, Felix Gödde, Claudia Emde, Ulrich Hamann, Mihail Manev, Michael Fritz Sterzik, and Cedric Wehrum
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6025–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6025-2024, 2024
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The amount of sunlight reflected by the Earth’s surface (albedo) is vital for the Earth's radiative system. While satellite instruments offer detailed spatial and temporal albedo maps, they only cover seven wavelength bands. We generate albedo maps that fully span the visible and near-infrared range using a machine learning algorithm. These maps reveal how the reflectivity of different land surfaces varies throughout the year. Our dataset enhances the understanding of the Earth's energy balance.
Johanna Mayer, Bernhard Mayer, Luca Bugliaro, Ralf Meerkötter, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5161–5185, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5161-2024, 2024
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This study uses radiative transfer calculations to characterize the relation of two satellite channel combinations (namely infrared window brightness temperature differences – BTDs – of SEVIRI) to the thermodynamic cloud phase. A sensitivity analysis reveals the complex interplay of cloud parameters and their contribution to the observed phase dependence of BTDs. This knowledge helps to design optimal cloud-phase retrievals and to understand their potential and limitations.
Manfred Wendisch, Susanne Crewell, André Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Benjamin Kirbus, Christof Lüpkes, Mario Mech, Steven J. Abel, Elisa F. Akansu, Felix Ament, Clémantyne Aubry, Sebastian Becker, Stephan Borrmann, Heiko Bozem, Marlen Brückner, Hans-Christian Clemen, Sandro Dahlke, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Julien Delanoë, Elena De La Torre Castro, Henning Dorff, Regis Dupuy, Oliver Eppers, Florian Ewald, Geet George, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Sarah Grawe, Silke Groß, Jörg Hartmann, Silvia Henning, Lutz Hirsch, Evelyn Jäkel, Philipp Joppe, Olivier Jourdan, Zsofia Jurányi, Michail Karalis, Mona Kellermann, Marcus Klingebiel, Michael Lonardi, Johannes Lucke, Anna E. Luebke, Maximilian Maahn, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Bernhard Mayer, Johanna Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Janosch Michaelis, Michel Michalkov, Guillaume Mioche, Manuel Moser, Hanno Müller, Roel Neggers, Davide Ori, Daria Paul, Fiona M. Paulus, Christian Pilz, Felix Pithan, Mira Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Maximilian Ringel, Nils Risse, Gregory C. Roberts, Sophie Rosenburg, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna Rückert, Michael Schäfer, Jonas Schaefer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Jörg Schmidt, Sebastian Schmidt, Johannes Schneider, Sabrina Schnitt, Anja Schwarz, Holger Siebert, Harald Sodemann, Tim Sperzel, Gunnar Spreen, Bjorn Stevens, Frank Stratmann, Gunilla Svensson, Christian Tatzelt, Thomas Tuch, Timo Vihma, Christiane Voigt, Lea Volkmer, Andreas Walbröl, Anna Weber, Birgit Wehner, Bruno Wetzel, Martin Wirth, and Tobias Zinner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8865–8892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8865-2024, 2024
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. Warm-air intrusions (WAIs) into the Arctic may play an important role in explaining this phenomenon. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) out of the Arctic may link the Arctic climate changes to mid-latitude weather. In our article, we describe how to observe air mass transformations during CAOs and WAIs using three research aircraft instrumented with state-of-the-art remote-sensing and in situ measurement devices.
Andreas Walbröl, Janosch Michaelis, Sebastian Becker, Henning Dorff, Kerstin Ebell, Irina Gorodetskaya, Bernd Heinold, Benjamin Kirbus, Melanie Lauer, Nina Maherndl, Marion Maturilli, Johanna Mayer, Hanno Müller, Roel A. J. Neggers, Fiona M. Paulus, Johannes Röttenbacher, Janna E. Rückert, Imke Schirmacher, Nils Slättberg, André Ehrlich, Manfred Wendisch, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8007–8029, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8007-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8007-2024, 2024
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To support the interpretation of the data collected during the HALO-(AC)3 campaign, which took place in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic from 7 March to 12 April 2022, we analyze how unusual the weather and sea ice conditions were with respect to the long-term climatology. From observations and ERA5 reanalysis, we found record-breaking warm air intrusions and a large variety of marine cold air outbreaks. Sea ice concentration was mostly within the climatological interquartile range.
Johanna Mayer, Luca Bugliaro, Bernhard Mayer, Dennis Piontek, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4015–4039, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4015-2024, 2024
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ProPS (PRObabilistic cloud top Phase retrieval for SEVIRI) is a method to detect clouds and their thermodynamic phase with a geostationary satellite, distinguishing between clear sky and ice, mixed-phase, supercooled and warm liquid clouds. It uses a Bayesian approach based on the lidar–radar product DARDAR. The method allows studying cloud phases, especially mixed-phase and supercooled clouds, rarely observed from geostationary satellites. This can be used for comparison with climate models.
Ziming Wang, Husi Letu, Huazhe Shang, and Luca Bugliaro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7559–7574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7559-2024, 2024
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The supercooled liquid fraction (SLF) in mixed-phase clouds is retrieved for the first time using passive geostationary satellite observations based on differences in liquid droplet and ice particle radiative properties. The retrieved results are comparable to global distributions observed by active instruments, and the feasibility of the retrieval method to analyze the observed trends of the SLF has been validated.
Ziming Wang, Luca Bugliaro, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Romy Heller, Ulrike Burkhardt, Helmut Ziereis, Georgios Dekoutsidis, Martin Wirth, Silke Groß, Simon Kirschler, Stefan Kaufmann, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1941–1961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1941-2023, 2023
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Differences in the microphysical properties of contrail cirrus and natural cirrus in a contrail outbreak situation during the ML-CIRRUS campaign over the North Atlantic flight corridor can be observed from in situ measurements. The cirrus radiative effect in the area of the outbreak, derived from satellite observation-based radiative transfer modeling, is warming in the early morning and cooling during the day.
Mireia Papke Chica, Valerian Hahn, Tiziana Braeuer, Elena de la Torre Castro, Florian Ewald, Mathias Gergely, Simon Kirschler, Luca Bugliaro Goggia, Stefanie Knobloch, Martina Kraemer, Johannes Lucke, Johanna Mayer, Raphael Maerkl, Manuel Moser, Laura Tomsche, Tina Jurkat-Witschas, Martin Zoeger, Christian von Savigny, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-255, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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The mixed-phase temperature regime in convective clouds challenges our understanding of microphysical and radiative cloud properties. We provide a rare and unique dataset of aircraft in situ measurements in a strong mid-latitude convective system. We find that mechanisms initiating ice nucleation and growth strongly depend on temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity and variate within the measured system, resulting in altitude dependent changes of the cloud liquid and ice fraction.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
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The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Richard Müller and Uwe Pfeifroth
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1537–1561, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1537-2022, 2022
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The great works of physics teach us that a central paradigm of science should be to make methods and theories as easy as possible and as complex as needed. This paper provides a brief review of remote sensing of solar surface irradiance based on this paradigm.
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, 2021
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Volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, may have huge economic consequences due to flight cancellations. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of source term improvement and of data assimilation for quantifying volcanic ash concentrations. The work, which was supported by the EUNADICS-AV project, is the first one, to our knowledge, that demonstrates the benefit of the assimilation of ground-based lidar data over Europe during an eruption.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
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The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
Matthieu Plu, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Delia Arnold Arias, Rocio Baro, Guillaume Bigeard, Luca Bugliaro, Ana Carvalho, Laaziz El Amraoui, Kurt Eschbacher, Marcus Hirtl, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Dennis Piontek, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, 2021
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Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences.
In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
Ulrich Schumann, Ian Poll, Roger Teoh, Rainer Koelle, Enrico Spinielli, Jarlath Molloy, George S. Koudis, Robert Baumann, Luca Bugliaro, Marc Stettler, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7429–7450, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7429-2021, 2021
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The roughly 70 % reduction of air traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic from March–August 2020 compared to 2019 provides a test case for the relationship between air traffic density, contrails, and their radiative forcing of climate change. This paper investigates the induced traffic and contrail changes in a model study. Besides strong weather changes, the model results indicate aviation-induced cirrus and top-of-the-atmosphere irradiance changes, which can be tested with observations.
Harald Rybka, Ulrike Burkhardt, Martin Köhler, Ioanna Arka, Luca Bugliaro, Ulrich Görsdorf, Ákos Horváth, Catrin I. Meyer, Jens Reichardt, Axel Seifert, and Johan Strandgren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4285–4318, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4285-2021, 2021
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Estimating the impact of convection on the upper-tropospheric water budget remains a problem for models employing resolutions of several kilometers or more. A sub-kilometer high-resolution model is used to study summertime convection. The results suggest mostly close agreement with ground- and satellite-based observational data while slightly overestimating total frozen water path and anvil lifetime. The simulations are well suited to supplying information for parameterization development.
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Short summary
The goal is to assess the feasibility of an ice crystal icing detection algorithm based exclusively on remote sensing data. Active measurements are used to train and validate a newly developed random forest algorithm that is applied to passive satellite imagery to estimate the ice crystal icing conditions probability. 83 % of ice crystal icing conditions are correctly detected, showing potential for an operational implementation to mitigate its negative effects on the fleet.
The goal is to assess the feasibility of an ice crystal icing detection algorithm based...
