Articles | Volume 18, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-4543-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-4543-2025
Research article
 | 
16 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 16 Sep 2025

Assessment of aerosol optical depth forecast for day-ahead clear-sky direct irradiance

Xinyuan Hou, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, and Stelios Kazadzis

Related authors

Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6
Xinyuan Hou, Martin Wild, Doris Folini, Stelios Kazadzis, and Jan Wohland
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1099–1113, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1099-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1099-2021, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Al-Rasheedi, M., Gueymard, C. A., Al-Khayat, M., Ismail, A., Lee, J. A., and Al-Duaj, H.: Performance Evaluation of a Utility-Scale Dual-Technology Photovoltaic Power Plant at the Shagaya Renewable Energy Park in Kuwait, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 133, 110139, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110139, 2020. a
Ansari, K. and Ramachandran, S.: Optical and physical characteristics of aerosols over Asia: AERONET, MERRA-2 and CAMS, Atmos. Environ., 326, 120470, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120470, 2024. a, b
Bhartia, P. K.: OMI/Aura TOMS-Like Ozone, Aerosol Index, Cloud Radiance Fraction L3 1 day 1 degree × 1 degree V3 (OMTO3d 003), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/OMTO3d_003/summary (last access: 8 July 2025), 2012. a, b
Blaga, R., Calinoiu, D., and Paulescu, M.: A methodology for realistic estimation of the aerosol impact on the solar potential, Sol. Energy, 271, 112 425, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2024.112425, 2024. a
Bouarar, I., Arola, A., Benedictow, A., Bennouna, Y., Blake, L., Cuevas, E., Errera, Q., Eskes, H., Griesfeller, J., Basart, S., Kapsomenakis, J., Kouyate, M., Langerock, B., Mortier, A., Pitkänen, M., Pison, I., Ramonet, M., Richter, A., Schoenhardt, A., Schulz, M., Tarniewicz, J., Thouret, V., Tsikerdekis, A., Warneke, T., and Zerefos, C.: Validation report of the CAMS near-real-time global atmospheric composition service: Period December 2023–February 2024, Tech. rep., Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, https://doi.org/10.24380/N70-G3W3, 2024. a, b
Download
Short summary
We analyzed aerosol ground measurements and model based aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts to study variations in AOD at different global sites. We compared day-ahead AOD forecast methods and assessed their impact on forecasting clear-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). While none of the methods accurately forecast DNI within 5 %, most sites showed a DNI deviation within 20 %, especially at sites with urban-industrial aerosols.
Share