Articles | Volume 18, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-37-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-37-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Jan 2025
Research article |
| 07 Jan 2025
| 07 Jan 2025
Ground-based contrail observations: comparisons with reanalysis weather data and contrail model simulations
Jade Low
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Roger Teoh
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Joel Ponsonby
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Edward Gryspeerdt
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Marc Shapiro
Breakthrough Energy, 4110 Carillon Point, Kirkland, WA 98033, USA
Marc E. J. Stettler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
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Hui Ling Wong, Rafael Palacios, and Edward Gryspeerdt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5835, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Contrails are clouds that form behind aircraft and have a significant warming impact on the climate. To reduce this impact, aircraft can avoid the regions where contrails form. This raises the question of whether this increases the risk of turbulence encounters. We found that contrail-forming regions associated with increased turbulence risk occur in winter and where air rises quickly. These findings can make contrail avoidance strategies safer and more effective.
Dominik P. Nakoneczny, Jonathan P. Itcovitz, Denis Vida, Luc Busquin, Tristan H. Abbott, and Marc E. J. Stettler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5251, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
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Contrails are ice clouds left by aircraft that persist in cold, humid air, adding a large fraction to aviation's climate impact. Testing and improving forecasts requires labelled datasets of contrail observations. We used ground camera images of contrails and matched them to their originating aircraft. Our "flight-first" method searches for contrails based on where they're predicted to be, making detections faster and more reliable. This scalable approach could help track contrails worldwide.
Iarla Boyce, Alice Cicirello, and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 5475–5490, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-5475-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-5475-2026, 2026
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We tested whether satellites accurately measure clouds affected by ship pollution. Using computer simulations, we found that satellites overestimate how much cloud droplet numbers rise in polluted ship tracks compared to nearby clean clouds. This means the cooling effect of pollution on clouds may be overstated, which matters for strategies like marine cloud brightening that aim to boost this cooling effect deliberately.
Sebastian David Eastham, Hamid Reza Abbasi, Marc E. J. Stettler, Tristan Abbott, and Zebediah Engberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4489, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Aircraft condensation trails (contrails) have been estimated as being responsible for up to half of aviation's overall climate impacts, but this is subject to high uncertainty and few contrail models are fast enough to support rapid exploration of the parameter space. We present CLAMP, a new contrail model designed to simulate a 12-hour contrail in less than a minute while providing results similar to higher-fidelity approaches.
Scott Geraedts, Aaron Sarna, Susanne Rohs, Roger Teoh, and Kevin McCloskey
J. Env. Com. Air Transp. Sys., 1, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-2-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-1-2-2026, 2026
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It can be difficult to know if a given aircraft made a contrail. Existing methods that can be applied to any aircraft either use numerical weather data or satellite observations. In this work we create a new method by combining weather data and observations together. By comparison to in-situ measurements we show that the new method is superior to previous methods.
Tharun Sankar, Thomas Dean, Tristan Abbott, Jill Blickstein, Alejandra Martín Frías, Mark Galyen, Rebecca Grenham, Paul Hodgson, Kevin McCloskey, Alan Pechman, Tyler Robarge, Dinesh Sanekommu, Aaron Sarna, Aaron Sonabend-W, Marc Stettler, Raimund Zopp, and Scott Geraedts
J. Env. Com. Air Transp. Sys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-2026-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/jecats-2026-4, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for JECATS
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This randomized control trial provides evidence for the efficacy of airline-led contrail avoidance to reduce aviation's climate impact. By integrating ML forecasts into standard flight planning, dispatchers routed flights to avoid warming contrails. Satellite validation showed an 11.6 % overall reduction in contrails, increasing to 62 % for flights strictly following the optimized paths, all with no significant fuel penalty.
Izabela Wojciechowska and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 4571–4582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4571-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4571-2026, 2026
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Marine clouds play a major role in cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight, but predicting how bright they appear is not straightforward. We used satellite data from 2003 to 2021 and examined whether the brightness of marine clouds can be explained by their main properties. We found that the relationship varies across the globe, and that regional differences need to be considered to better understand cloud impact on climate.
Anna Tippett, Paul R. Field, and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 4251–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4251-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4251-2026, 2026
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Clouds and their interactions with tiny particles in the air (aerosols) are a large source of uncertainty in climate models. To study Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB), we use ship tracks (changes to clouds from ship pollution). Comparing real ship track data with model results, we find the model struggles under rainy conditions and overestimates effects at high pollution levels, suggesting it needs improvement for reliable MCB simulations.
Vishnu Nair, Edward Gryspeerdt, Antti Arola, Antti Lipponen, and Timo Virtanen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 4049–4066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4049-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4049-2026, 2026
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Surface winds affect clouds by generating sea salt aerosols and evaporating water from the ocean and transporting them to the cloud base. Previous studies analysed these processes using satellite snapshots; here we use observations of evolving clouds which capture feedbacks due to time-dependent adjustments of clouds to aerosol changes. We show that even though sea salt changes droplet sizes, evaporation from the ocean surface has a stronger impact on clouds, thus hiding the real aerosol effect.
Joel Ponsonby, Roger Teoh, Bernd Kärcher, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 18617–18637, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-18617-2025, 2025
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Aerosol emissions from aircraft engines contribute to the formation of contrails, which have a climate impact comparable to that of aviation’s CO2 emissions. We show that emissions of volatile particulate matter – from fuel sulphur, unburned fuel, and lubrication oil – can increase the number of ice particles formed within a contrail and therefore have an important role in the climate impacts of aviation. This has implications for emission regulation and climate mitigation strategies.
Oliver G. A. Driver, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 16411–16433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16411-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16411-2025, 2025
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Contrails are ice clouds caused by planes. They have a warming effect, so are important to model. In humid (ice supersaturated) regions, ice crystals are stable so can persist. However, weather model data doesn't represent ice supersaturated regions well enough. We demonstrate that ice supersaturation modelling is structured by North Atlantic storm systems. Averaging many systems, we link the bias to underling processes being modelled, and gain insight into how the existing data could be used.
George Horner and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5617–5631, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5617-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5617-2025, 2025
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This work tracks the life cycle of thin cirrus clouds that flow out of tropical convective storms. These cirrus clouds are found to have a warming effect on the atmosphere over their whole lifetime. Thin cirrus that originate from land origin convection warm more than those of ocean origin. Moreover, if the lifetime of these cirrus clouds increase, the warming they exert over their whole lifetime also increases. These results help us understand how these clouds might change in a future climate.
Oliver G. A. Driver, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 1115–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-1115-2025, 2025
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Contrails (clouds caused by planes) play a large role in the climate warming caused by aviation. Satellites are a good tool to validate modelled impact estimates. Many contrails are either too narrow or too disperse to detect. This work shows that only around half of contrails are observable but that the most climatically important are easier to detect. It supports the use of satellites for contrail observation but highlights the need for observability considerations for specific applications.
Harri Kokkola, Juha Tonttila, Silvia M. Calderón, Sami Romakkaniemi, Antti Lipponen, Aapo Peräkorpi, Tero Mielonen, Edward Gryspeerdt, Timo Henrik Virtanen, Pekka Kolmonen, and Antti Arola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1533–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1533-2025, 2025
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Understanding how atmospheric aerosols affect clouds is a scientific challenge. One question is how aerosols affects the amount of cloud water. We used a cloud-scale model to study these effects on marine clouds. The study showed that variations in cloud properties and instrument noise can cause bias in satellite-derived cloud water content. However, our results suggest that for similar weather conditions with well-defined aerosol concentrations, satellite data can reliably track these effects.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
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Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Anna Tippett, Edward Gryspeerdt, Peter Manshausen, Philip Stier, and Tristan W. P. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13269–13283, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13269-2024, 2024
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Ship emissions can form artificially brightened clouds, known as ship tracks, and provide us with an opportunity to investigate how aerosols interact with clouds. Previous studies that used ship tracks suggest that clouds can experience large increases in the amount of water (LWP) from aerosols. Here, we show that there is a bias in previous research and that, when we account for this bias, the LWP response to aerosols is much weaker than previously reported.
Rebecca J. Murray-Watson and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11115–11132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11115-2024, 2024
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The formation of mixed-phase clouds during marine cold-air outbreaks is not well understood. Our study, using satellite data and Lagrangian trajectories, reveals that the occurrence of these clouds depends on both time and temperature, influenced partly by the presence of biological ice-nucleating particles. This highlights the importance of comprehending local aerosol dynamics for precise modelling of cloud-phase transitions in the Arctic.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024
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This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
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Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Ulrich Schumann, Christiane Voigt, Marc Shapiro, Susanne Rohs, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6071–6093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, 2024
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The radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation contrails is comparable to that caused by CO2. We estimate that global contrail net RF in 2019 was 62.1 mW m−2. This is ~1/2 the previous best estimate for 2018. Contrail RF varies regionally due to differences in conditions required for persistent contrails. COVID-19 reduced contrail RF by 54% in 2020 relative to 2019. Globally, 2 % of all flights account for 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, suggesting a opportunity to mitigate contrail RF.
Joel Ponsonby, Leon King, Benjamin J. Murray, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2045–2058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2045-2024, 2024
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Aerosol emissions from aircraft engines contribute to the formation of contrails, which have a climate impact as important as that of aviation’s CO2 emissions. For the first time, we experimentally investigate the freezing behaviour of water droplets formed on jet lubrication oil aerosol. We show that they can activate to form water droplets and discuss their potential impact on contrail formation. Our study has implications for contrails produced by future aircraft engine and fuel technologies.
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Marc Shapiro, Lynnette Dray, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 725–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-725-2024, 2024
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Emissions from aircraft contribute to climate change and degrade air quality. We describe an up-to-date 4D emissions inventory of global aviation from 2019 to 2021 based on actual flown trajectories. In 2019, 40.2 million flights collectively travelled 61 billion kilometres using 283 Tg of fuel. Long-haul flights were responsible for 43 % of CO2. The emissions inventory is made available for use in future studies to evaluate the negative externalities arising from global aviation.
George Horner and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14239–14253, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14239-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14239-2023, 2023
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Tropical deep convective clouds, and the thin cirrus (ice) clouds that flow out from them, are important for modulating the energy budget of the tropical atmosphere. This work uses a new method to track the evolution of the properties of these clouds across their entire lifetimes. We find these clouds cool the atmosphere in the first 6 h before switching to a warming regime after the deep convective core has dissipated, which is sustained beyond 120 h from the initial convective event.
Rebecca J. Murray-Watson, Edward Gryspeerdt, and Tom Goren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9365–9383, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9365-2023, 2023
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Clouds formed in Arctic marine cold air outbreaks undergo a distinct evolution, but the factors controlling their transition from high-coverage to broken cloud fields are poorly understood. We use satellite and reanalysis data to study how these clouds develop in time and the different influences on their evolution. The aerosol concentration is correlated with cloud break-up; more aerosol is linked to prolonged coverage and a stronger cooling effect, with implications for a more polluted Arctic.
Edward Gryspeerdt, Adam C. Povey, Roy G. Grainger, Otto Hasekamp, N. Christina Hsu, Jane P. Mulcahy, Andrew M. Sayer, and Armin Sorooshian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4115–4122, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4115-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4115-2023, 2023
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The impact of aerosols on clouds is one of the largest uncertainties in the human forcing of the climate. Aerosol can increase the concentrations of droplets in clouds, but observational and model studies produce widely varying estimates of this effect. We show that these estimates can be reconciled if only polluted clouds are studied, but this is insufficient to constrain the climate impact of aerosol. The uncertainty in aerosol impact on clouds is currently driven by cases with little aerosol.
Edward Gryspeerdt, Franziska Glassmeier, Graham Feingold, Fabian Hoffmann, and Rebecca J. Murray-Watson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11727–11738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11727-2022, 2022
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The response of clouds to changes in aerosol remains a large uncertainty in our understanding of the climate. Studies typically look at aerosol and cloud processes in snapshot images, measuring all properties at the same time. Here we use multiple images to characterise how cloud temporal development responds to aerosol. We find a reduction in liquid water path with increasing aerosol, party due to feedbacks. This suggests the aerosol impact on cloud water may be weaker than in previous studies.
Roger Teoh, Ulrich Schumann, Edward Gryspeerdt, Marc Shapiro, Jarlath Molloy, George Koudis, Christiane Voigt, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10919–10935, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022, 2022
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Aircraft condensation trails (contrails) contribute to over half of the climate forcing attributable to aviation. This study uses historical air traffic and weather data to simulate contrails in the North Atlantic over 5 years, from 2016 to 2021. We found large intra- and inter-year variability in contrail radiative forcing and observed a 66 % reduction due to COVID-19. Most warming contrails predominantly result from night-time flights in winter.
Edward Gryspeerdt, Daniel T. McCoy, Ewan Crosbie, Richard H. Moore, Graeme J. Nott, David Painemal, Jennifer Small-Griswold, Armin Sorooshian, and Luke Ziemba
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3875–3892, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3875-2022, 2022
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Droplet number concentration is a key property of clouds, influencing a variety of cloud processes. It is also used for estimating the cloud response to aerosols. The satellite retrieval depends on a number of assumptions – different sampling strategies are used to select cases where these assumptions are most likely to hold. Here we investigate the impact of these strategies on the agreement with in situ data, the droplet number climatology and estimates of the indirect radiative forcing.
Hailing Jia, Johannes Quaas, Edward Gryspeerdt, Christoph Böhm, and Odran Sourdeval
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7353–7372, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7353-2022, 2022
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Aerosol–cloud interaction is the most uncertain component of the anthropogenic forcing of the climate. By combining satellite and reanalysis data, we show that the strength of the Twomey effect (S) increases remarkably with vertical velocity. Both the confounding effect of aerosol–precipitation interaction and the lack of vertical co-location between aerosol and cloud are found to overestimate S, whereas the retrieval biases in aerosol and cloud appear to underestimate S.
Rebecca J. Murray-Watson and Edward Gryspeerdt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5743–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5743-2022, 2022
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Clouds are important to the Arctic surface energy budget, but the impact of aerosols on their properties is largely uncertain. This work shows that the response of liquid water path to cloud droplet number increases is strongly dependent on lower tropospheric stability (LTS), with weaker cooling effects in polluted clouds and at high LTS. LTS is projected to decrease in a warmer Arctic, reducing the cooling effect of aerosols and producing a positive, aerosol-dependent cloud feedback.
Matthew W. Christensen, Andrew Gettelman, Jan Cermak, Guy Dagan, Michael Diamond, Alyson Douglas, Graham Feingold, Franziska Glassmeier, Tom Goren, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Edward Gryspeerdt, Ralph Kahn, Zhanqing Li, Po-Lun Ma, Florent Malavelle, Isabel L. McCoy, Daniel T. McCoy, Greg McFarquhar, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Sandip Pal, Anna Possner, Adam Povey, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Rosenfeld, Anja Schmidt, Roland Schrödner, Armin Sorooshian, Philip Stier, Velle Toll, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Mingxi Yang, and Tianle Yuan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 641–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, 2022
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Trace gases and aerosols (tiny airborne particles) are released from a variety of point sources around the globe. Examples include volcanoes, industrial chimneys, forest fires, and ship stacks. These sources provide opportunistic experiments with which to quantify the role of aerosols in modifying cloud properties. We review the current state of understanding on the influence of aerosol on climate built from the wide range of natural and anthropogenic laboratories investigated in recent decades.
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Short summary
The radiative forcing due to contrails is of the same order of magnitude as aviation CO2 emissions but has a higher uncertainty. Observations are vital to improve our understanding of the contrail lifecycle, improve models, and measure the effect of mitigation action. Here, we use ground-based cameras combined with flight telemetry to track visible contrails and measure their lifetime and width. We evaluate model predictions and demonstrate the capability of this approach.
The radiative forcing due to contrails is of the same order of magnitude as aviation CO2...
